Autumn Statement Predictions?

dealyboy

@michaels said:

dealyboy said:

Right ... my wager is ...

IHT - no change
income tax - 1p cut to basic rate
                  - higher rate no change
tax thresholds (personal allowance) - no change
personal savings allowance - no change
personal savings zero rate band - from £5,000 to £6,000
national insurance - no change
new 'British' ISA
corporation tax - down to 20%
pension triple lock - retained but April 2024 increase to be 7.8% (change to earnings component)
benefits April increase - retained as September CPI (6.7%)
UK Aid - to return to 0.7% of GNI (from 0.5%) from 2025

Interesting.  I think there is a good economic rationale for excluding unconsolidated bonuses/one off payments from the wage increase number used in the triple lock (it should not have been included in the first place but was probably not anticipated to be a major issue) but, the politics of it are probably extremely poor from the party of the pensioner so I am not sure that the money saved (most of which will be in future parliaments not this one) would be considered worth the political pain.

Actually I agree, but I find it hard to remember anything that the Government has done that makes sense, sometimes you just get a hunch. If I put the ISA changes to one side, that's 10 'guesses', if I get more than 5/10 I'll be astounded to be honest.

MarkCarnage

Sadly I fear it would take something very radical to shake up our tax and spending system. I suspect that there will be very challenging fiscal times ahead....

QrizB

I will predict with confidence that the autumn statement will not include any mention of Brexit.

Sea_Shell

If they do anything to lower NI, will that also have an effect of lowering how much a "missed" year costs to buy?

njm123

Sea_Shell said:

If they do anything to lower NI, will that also have an effect of lowering how much a "missed" year costs to buy?

I doubt it as that would benefit the economically inactive who are becoming this governments Bete Noir, not that it'll be any better under labour.    There seems to be a drive to get people back to work in the leaked measures on benefits - targeting those on Sick Benefits who count as inactive, the NI measures are targeted at not giving a tax cut to the inactive, thus maybe encouraging a few to delay becoming inactive or a few to return to work, particularly those like me living off savings/investments (Although I could trigger a private pension anytime).  On it's own it's not a big amount but it's a cumulative effect if you keep making a group slightly worse off  over time.

Silvertabby

Sea_Shell said:

If they do anything to lower NI, will that also have an effect of lowering how much a "missed" year costs to buy?

If you mean previous years, then I would very much doubt it as that would be a retrospective reduction.

Silvertabby

8.5% confirmed.  I suppose that as the lesser (but arguably more accurate) rate of 7.8% was a difference of less than 1% it wasn't worth the backlash.

JoeCrystal

Hunt turns to pension reforms, announcing he will consult on giving people one pension pot for life.

He says he will consult on giving pension savers a "legal right to require a new employer to pay pension contributions into their existing pension".

He says these reforms could help unlock an "extra £1,000 a year in retirement for an average earner saving from 18".

Ivkoto

• Class 2 National Insurance to be abolished - saving "average self-employed person £192 a year"

So the people who hide a lot of taxes will enjoy some more !?

Silvertabby

JoeCrystal said:

Hunt turns to pension reforms, announcing he will consult on giving people one pension pot for life.

He says he will consult on giving pension savers a "legal right to require a new employer to pay pension contributions into their existing pension".

He says these reforms could help unlock an "extra £1,000 a year in retirement for an average earner saving from 18".

That could have been made clearer.  ie, new employers will only be required to pay into previous DC schemes, and not DB schemes.  That said, people will only hear what they want to hear.