Autumn Statement Predictions?

RogerPensionGuy

Does anyone have any predictions for the Autumn Statement this coming Wednesday?

After the amazement of the LTA removal, AA 50% increase and MPAA increased by 150% in this year's spring budget.

I do wonder if we will see some very unexpected stuff this week coming. 

frugalmacdugal

Hi,

google says THIS.

LightFlare

My prediction;

the rich will get richer at the expense of the working class

Billxx

The hold on the basic annual tax allowance will come off.  Inheritance Tax thresholds will increase to take most people out of range.  Both measures in a desperate attempt to buy votes.  Benefits will be squeezed.

JoeCrystal

Billxx said:

 Inheritance Tax thresholds will increase to take most people out of range.  

Do you mean to take most estates expected to pay inheritance taxes out of the range? 96% of the estates during 2020-2021 don't pay them anyway due to various generous exemptions or under the threshold.

My prediction is VAT might be reduced in some sectors. 

Albermarle

Do you mean to take most estates expected to pay inheritance taxes out of the range? 96% of the estates during 2020-2021 don't pay them anyway due to various generous exemptions or under the threshold

The problem with IHT is not the reality of it, but the way it is perceived/ misunderstood.

A lot of people are under the mistaken impression that it will hit them when it will not. You see that in posts in these forums, and it has been confirmed by a You.gov poll.

The readers of certain newspapers ( on line or not) are fed a constant diet of stories about gifting rules/how to avoid IHT, which gives the impression that the taxman will be knocking on your coffin waiting for payment, even if you are just an ordinary family.
In addition these same newspapers have been campaigning vigorously against the 'death tax' 

So it may not be rational, or fair, but politically changes to IHT will be a potential vote winner and will be a bit of red meat to throw to the right wing.  Even if the changes are mainly window dressing, as the Treasury will not want to lose the while £8 billion it generates ( and growing) .

RogerPensionGuy

In reference to some posts above, I'm pretty sure they will make some changes that will be targeted towards perception and will reduce the number of seats they will loose in the next election. So very damage limiting will be high on the list.

I'm guessing and hoping they won't play negatively with the LTA, AA or MPAA this month to further undermine the long-term good of letting people plan for pensions.

I'm guessing they will want to prop up the housing market by any means as buying appetite is down and mortgages in arrears are going up, maybe more stamp duty sticky plastering on the cards like Help to Buy promotions or possibly a Help to Stay process I noticed a few weeks back, these HtB or HtS schemes can be helpful or just kick the current issues down the road instead of just actually building more housing instead of just talking about it.

Link below about the HtS scheme for anyone not aware of it.
...
https://www.gov.wales/help-stay-scheme#:~:text=The Help to Stay - Wales,payments to an affordable level.

Nebulous2

There will be something to pump up the housing market, probably supporting first time buyers. 

There will be a couple of announcements that are praised in the press initially, until someone reads the fine detail and realises it is a crock of ....

By then the press will have moved on, with a limited number of people realising it isn't what it was presented as. IHT may well be in this category. 

Mutton_Geoff

IHT will be increased or changed to reduce the amount of (property) rich people being drawn in but my guess is that pension pots will no longer be free of tax when passing on after death.

RogerPensionGuy

I think they will tinker about with IHT and maybe it needs it, but think they will keep it in some form. 

In my view many people think the receiving persons that pay this tax, I wish more people understood it's the person who died pays it or the estate they leave. 

I hope they open up that strange quirk of allowing IHT to increase from 325K to 500K if that person gives an accommodation to a child or grandchildren, by removing such a strange system, 500K should of been open to anyone, this would also possibly let older people sell accommodation and allow better flexibility in older people changing accommodation needs and helpful in general. 

The link below maybe helpful to some people. 
.
https://www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/family-and-care/death-and-bereavement/a-guide-to-inheritance-tax

hugheskevi

This Budget will be unlike any other for a long time, given the odds of the Conservatives winning most seats at the next General Election are currently below 13% on Betfair. Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Given this, I'd expect a focus on leaving bear traps for a new administration as much as an emphasis on introducing policies seen as offering an electoral advantage. There may also be a desire to shore up support amongst the core Conservative vote, which is consistent with an approach of introducing difficult policies for Labour to deal with - just as Labour left the 50% additional rate of income tax for the Conservatives to deal with when they left office.

Inheritance Tax reduction fits the bill nicely, as might income tax reductions such as removing the Personal Allowance taper or removing the 45% additional rate. I would not be surprised to see movement on the freeze of Personal Allowance and income tax and National Insurance rates to 2028, as that brings in a lot of revenue - unfreezing them would require Labour to introduce new taxes, re-freeze them or have a lower budget, all of which would make life more difficult for Labour.

On pensions specifically, there could be some long-term commitments to Triple Lock in an attempt to force uncomfortable commitments from Labour, and maybe similar commitments to other popular policies such as Winter Fuel Payments. Although perhaps these sort of measures will be left for manifestos. I suspect that the emphasis in this area will be more on State Pensions and benefits rather than private pensions, as State Pensions always get more headlines, especially amongst pensioners who vote the most. Given the extensive recent change around private pensions and taxation, I don't expect any further change.