Autumn Statement Predictions?

sevenhills

hugheskevi said:

This Budget will be unlike any other for a long time, given the odds of the Conservatives winning most seats at the next General Election are currently below 13% on Betfair. Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Inheritance Tax reduction fits the bill nicely, as might income tax reductions such as removing the Personal Allowance taper or removing the 45% additional rate. I would not be surprised to see movement on the freeze of Personal Allowance and income tax and National Insurance rates to 2028, as that brings in a lot of revenue - unfreezing them would require Labour to introduce new taxes, re-freeze them or have a lower budget, all of which would make life more difficult for Labour.

Surely any tax cuts for inheritance tax and 45% additional rate will benefit the likes of Sunak and the wealthy, and so show the Government as a party of the rich, the very thing that they want to avoid.

Posters on here do tend to be wealthier and perhaps there is some wishful thinking going on. I personally think inheritance tax is a great time to raise revenue, much better than taxing work, perhaps taxing homes can be exempt at a higher rate.

2nd_time_buyer

"the rabbit out the hat" will be used by the media. It always is.

It will be something that benefits nearly everyone. It might be unexpectedly"generous". I am betting on a cut of basic rate income tax. 

Hoenir

hugheskevi said:

Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Given the reception to Truss last year. All parties know that they are walking on eggshells.There's no alternative other than for fiscal prudence. As budget deficits have to reigned in. Days of Spend Now Pay Later are over. The Markets are watching like hawks. 

Be a pro business Autumn Statement. 

hugheskevi

sevenhills said:

hugheskevi said:

This Budget will be unlike any other for a long time, given the odds of the Conservatives winning most seats at the next General Election are currently below 13% on Betfair. Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Inheritance Tax reduction fits the bill nicely, as might income tax reductions such as removing the Personal Allowance taper or removing the 45% additional rate. I would not be surprised to see movement on the freeze of Personal Allowance and income tax and National Insurance rates to 2028, as that brings in a lot of revenue - unfreezing them would require Labour to introduce new taxes, re-freeze them or have a lower budget, all of which would make life more difficult for Labour.

Surely any tax cuts for inheritance tax and 45% additional rate will benefit the likes of Sunak and the wealthy, and so show the Government as a party of the rich, the very thing that they want to avoid.

Posters on here do tend to be wealthier and perhaps there is some wishful thinking going on. I personally think inheritance tax is a great time to raise revenue, much better than taxing work, perhaps taxing homes can be exempt at a higher rate.

At this point in the political cycle, the question is does it really matter how the masses perceive the policy. If you think you are coasting to a heavy defeat, then may it not be better to implement some controversial policies now to both bolster support of the party faithful whilst you still can, whilst also putting in place awkward policies for a future Labour govt to tackle due to the presentational consequences of introducing new legislation on controversial topics? If not, then why float such ideas in the first place.

Those are valuable things to consider, and have to be weighed against how many votes would be lost through such policies in seats where it might matter. The question is, are there many swing-voters who would change their vote based on these sorts of policies (only polling will answer that, and party analysts will know these sort of things).

Hoenir said:

hugheskevi said:

Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Given the reception to Truss last year. All parties know that they are walking on eggshells.There's no alternative other than for fiscal prudence. As budget deficits have to reigned in. Days of Spend Now Pay Later are over. The Markets are watching like hawks. 

Be a pro business Autumn Statement. 

I was more referring to the political rather than fiscal consequences. Policies such as Inheritance Tax and 45% additional rate of income tax have very little fiscal importance, but a disproportionate political significance. I think it will be a Budget with as much focus on political games as fiscal changes. 

Sadly, the average voter has little idea of the difference between £5m and £5bn in terms of national income - both are just very large figures. I think there will be a lot of political fervor about things that have little economic importance.

sevenhills

hugheskevi said:

sevenhills said:

hugheskevi said:

This Budget will be unlike any other for a long time, given the odds of the Conservatives winning most seats at the next General Election are currently below 13% on Betfair. Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Inheritance Tax reduction fits the bill nicely, as might income tax reductions such as removing the Personal Allowance taper or removing the 45% additional rate. I would not be surprised to see movement on the freeze of Personal Allowance and income tax and National Insurance rates to 2028, as that brings in a lot of revenue - unfreezing them would require Labour to introduce new taxes, re-freeze them or have a lower budget, all of which would make life more difficult for Labour.

Surely any tax cuts for inheritance tax and 45% additional rate will benefit the likes of Sunak and the wealthy, and so show the Government as a party of the rich, the very thing that they want to avoid.

Posters on here do tend to be wealthier and perhaps there is some wishful thinking going on. I personally think inheritance tax is a great time to raise revenue, much better than taxing work, perhaps taxing homes can be exempt at a higher rate.

At this point in the political cycle, the question is does it really matter how the masses perceive the policy. If you think you are coasting to a heavy defeat, then may it not be better to implement some controversial policies now to both bolster support of the party faithful whilst you still can, whilst also putting in place awkward policies for a future Labour govt to tackle due to the presentational consequences of introducing new legislation on controversial topics? If not, then why float such ideas in the first place.

Those are valuable things to consider, and have to be weighed against how many votes would be lost through such policies in seats where it might matter. The question is, are there many swing-voters who would change their vote based on these sorts of policies (only polling will answer that, and party analysts will know these sort of things).

Hoenir said:

hugheskevi said:

Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Given the reception to Truss last year. All parties know that they are walking on eggshells.There's no alternative other than for fiscal prudence. As budget deficits have to reigned in. Days of Spend Now Pay Later are over. The Markets are watching like hawks. 

Be a pro business Autumn Statement. 

I was more referring to the political rather than fiscal consequences. Policies such as Inheritance Tax and 45% additional rate of income tax have very little fiscal importance, but a disproportionate political significance. I think it will be a Budget with as much focus on political games as fiscal changes. 

Sadly, the average voter has little idea of the difference between £5m and £5bn in terms of national income - both are just very large figures. I think there will be a lot of political fervor about things that have little economic importance.

I did think that the next election would be in 2025, but after Suella stirring the pot, I am not so sure.

westv

sevenhills said:

hugheskevi said:

sevenhills said:

hugheskevi said:

This Budget will be unlike any other for a long time, given the odds of the Conservatives winning most seats at the next General Election are currently below 13% on Betfair. Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Inheritance Tax reduction fits the bill nicely, as might income tax reductions such as removing the Personal Allowance taper or removing the 45% additional rate. I would not be surprised to see movement on the freeze of Personal Allowance and income tax and National Insurance rates to 2028, as that brings in a lot of revenue - unfreezing them would require Labour to introduce new taxes, re-freeze them or have a lower budget, all of which would make life more difficult for Labour.

Surely any tax cuts for inheritance tax and 45% additional rate will benefit the likes of Sunak and the wealthy, and so show the Government as a party of the rich, the very thing that they want to avoid.

Posters on here do tend to be wealthier and perhaps there is some wishful thinking going on. I personally think inheritance tax is a great time to raise revenue, much better than taxing work, perhaps taxing homes can be exempt at a higher rate.

At this point in the political cycle, the question is does it really matter how the masses perceive the policy. If you think you are coasting to a heavy defeat, then may it not be better to implement some controversial policies now to both bolster support of the party faithful whilst you still can, whilst also putting in place awkward policies for a future Labour govt to tackle due to the presentational consequences of introducing new legislation on controversial topics? If not, then why float such ideas in the first place.

Those are valuable things to consider, and have to be weighed against how many votes would be lost through such policies in seats where it might matter. The question is, are there many swing-voters who would change their vote based on these sorts of policies (only polling will answer that, and party analysts will know these sort of things).

Hoenir said:

hugheskevi said:

Therefore the most probable situation is that the current administration will not need to deal with the consequences of new policies.

Given the reception to Truss last year. All parties know that they are walking on eggshells.There's no alternative other than for fiscal prudence. As budget deficits have to reigned in. Days of Spend Now Pay Later are over. The Markets are watching like hawks. 

Be a pro business Autumn Statement. 

I was more referring to the political rather than fiscal consequences. Policies such as Inheritance Tax and 45% additional rate of income tax have very little fiscal importance, but a disproportionate political significance. I think it will be a Budget with as much focus on political games as fiscal changes. 

Sadly, the average voter has little idea of the difference between £5m and £5bn in terms of national income - both are just very large figures. I think there will be a lot of political fervor about things that have little economic importance.

I did think that the next election would be in 2025, but after Suella stirring the pot, I am not so sure.

How can the election have been in 2025 when it has to be within or at 5 years of December 2019?

JoeCrystal

Not exactly, it is the parliament being dissolved that is set by five years limit from when it is sat after the previous general election with the general election happening after a fixed number of days.

As this page says: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05085/

If the current Parliament is not dissolved early, it would dissolve automatically on 17 December 2024; and the general election would follow on Tuesday 28 January 2025.

The 25-day election timetable is automatically triggered by dissolution, but Saturdays, Sundays, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year’s Day and the Scottish Bank Holiday on 2 January are not counted in calculating the 25 days. 

So it could be a very long general election campaign!

GrubbyGirl_2

My prediction.  The conservatives have lost the red wall seats they gained in 2019 so they need to ensure they don't lose their core voters in the south.  I think they will increase the IHT threshold to £1m and will unfreeze the personal tax allowance.  I don't think they will remove the 45% tax level but may change the thresholds where 40% and 45% are paid.

2nd_time_buyer

A 1% cut in the basic income tax rate will probably cost less than unfreezing the rates. It is easy for people to understand, will have an immediate effect, and will generate headlines. They haven't talked about it much, which makes me think it is likely to happen.

QrizB

2nd_time_buyer said:

A 1% cut in the basic income tax rate will probably cost less than unfreezing the rates.

1% off the basic rate is a 5% reduction on the tax tackle on the BR band. It will cost about as much as raising the personal allowance by £1500.

Raising the personal allowance will disproportionately help pensioners, and old people vote.