House price crash brigade - doomsayers/mongers or optimists?

Turnbull2000

Optimists

Good to see that the majority agree. Pity that those who talk up the market have only the size of their wallet in mind.

seven-day-weekend

House prices, whether rising or falling, are only important to you personally if you want to buy or sell. Even if you are on paper in negative equity, providing you can pay the mortgage then it is only a problem if you wish to sell.

So a house price reduction can only be good news as it will enable more people to be able to buy a home.

We have a house in the UK that we have had for 31 years - it is now lived in by our son. We bought in in 1976 for £3000 (yes, three thousand pounds - we still had a mortgage for £70% of it). It is a three-bedroom mid-terrace on the outskirts of a large city in a reasonable area.

Because we have had no need to move from it, we have never had to have a huge mortgage, although we did borrow more to do repairs/renovations/improvements. We had paid for it by our mid-forties.

I would like to see young people being able to buy a modest family home on one salary (or maybe one and a half), like we did, so that they can have a home AND a family if that's what they chose.

Maybe that is cloud cuckoo land, I don't know.

From a purely selfish point of view, I would like house prices to drop dramatically in around 4-5 years so that we can come back to the UK and buy a house in Pembrokeshire or the Yorkshire Dales with the proceeds of the sale of our Spanish property (also a very modest, cheap house).

Gorgeous_George

Play the home-ownership game.

It's like 'pass-the-parcel' with a bome as the prize.

Pass it quickly folks!



GG

ps. I noticed the typo but quite liked it so I left it in.

I will say this only once.

Turnbull2000

Optimists

The Times - What we need is a recession

Won’t Britain be a kinder, more gentle place when you can open a newspaper or go to a dinner party without being overwhelmed by gloating buy-to-let investors telling you they have made a fortune?

In a year or two’s time it should be possible for an ordinary family on an ordinary salary once again to afford a decent home in Britain without stretching themselves to the limit, something that has not been possible in many parts of the country for at least five years.There should be less binge drinking, fewer Mondeo men speeding down the motorway to their next sales meeting, more parents spending time with their children...

IveSeenTheLight

martinbuckley wrote: »

30% Correction over the next 2-3 years should suffice, then those on average wages could actually think about being able to afford a place again.

Then I guess the bust would be followed by boom as the ever increasing population all try to jump onto the ladder along with all the other investors out there.

Maybe we all need to review our need to buy philosophy and look at other countries around Europe / the world

There may be a crash / dip / stagnation / modest rise in the short term, however as long as there is a need to buy philosophy and demand outweighs supply, there can only be house price increases in the long term.

Heck, we even have increased our need to buy philosophy to overseas properties in the last 20 years.

Pobby

Optimists

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

The Times - What we need is a recession

Turnball,thought i knew you better than this.Of course there won`t be a recession.Mr.Brown said``No more boom and bust``.I mean to say,so far we have had ``a mirical economy``.Oppps,time for my pills again!

dolce_vita

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

There may be a crash / dip / stagnation / modest rise in the short term, however as long as there is a need to buy philosophy and demand outweighs supply, there can only be house price increases in the long term.

.

But demand is linked to the ability to pay.

and that is what is changing.

Gorgeous_George

The only problem with a crash is that all the more recent buyers will be losers. Some may never recover financially.

I hope all MSEers have a prosperous New Year and achieve their dreams.

GG

IveSeenTheLight

dolce_vita wrote: »

But demand is linked to the ability to pay.

and that is what is changing.

I can agree with this but when the levels of affordability return, will this not mean with higher demand that the boom will be even quicker?

kingkano

Doomsayers

seven-day-weekend wrote: »

House prices, whether rising or falling, are only important to you personally if you want to buy or sell. Even if you are on paper in negative equity, providing you can pay the mortgage then it is only a problem if you wish to sell.

snip

Or when your current product expires and you need to negotiate a new deal. This would probably even apply to people on 5 or 10 year fixes if you start talking about 30-50% drops. They aren't likely to have paid that much off by the time it comes to get a new deal. OR banks start offering better deals for those in negative equity. I cant imagine many people affording SVRs....