I lost my nerve and have fixed

QrizB

Scot_39 said:

Krakkkers said:

Neither Israel or Gaza have any oil?

Learn from history.

Yes, let's.

Here's a list of Israel's wars:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Israel

Scot_39 said:

OAPEC  crisis in 1973/4 - Arab states banned oil exports to US and parts of Western Europe due to their support for Isreal.

The 1973 oil crisis coincided with one of Israel's seventeen listed wars.

So the lesson from history should be that the current unpleasantness might result in an energy crisis, but probably won't.

Scot_39

The lesson from history is that it is a very unstable region.  And it matters not one bit whether Isreal is a mass exporter of oil or gas - as the post I responded to -  if a conflict does spread beyond it's "borders" and those supporting the Arab view do react as they have in past.

On your simplistic 1 in 17 odds - you might argue - probably not. 
I certainly hope not.
But those 17 events are clearly not as easily isolated.  73 war was for instance a direct consequence of 67 war - as likes of Egypt fought to reclaim territory in Sinai and Syria in the Golan Heights etc.


The fate of an estimated 2m plus Arabs in Gaza is hanging in the balance over last week plus.
Probably larger than the directly impacted Arab populations in areas under 67 war annexation or 73 war.

And their fate - will ultimately decide wider outcome - and reaction of many such Arab states.
Which is why likes of Blinken are shuttling around middle East - trying to broker a deal to get them aid - to allow some out - even if not likely to save them all. 


The world is a complex place - we in West increasingly don't always get the outcome we might prefer.
A fix is a relatively low cost way of insulating against it going badly.
Just as they saved millions £100s if not £1000s for heavier users - during the recent Ukraine energy price spikes.

Bartown22

I caved this morning, and hope it pays off, it saved my neck last time, my last fixed rate finished end Sept, I missed all the crazy prices.

QrizB

Scot_39 said:

The lesson from history is that it is a very unstable region.

The Middle East is no less stable this week than it was last week, last month, last year.

Armed conflict in the Levant has been the the normal state of affairs for the last 75+ years. I see no reason why this particular one should have any greater impact on UK domestic energy prices than usual.

Scot_39

As I said I hope you are right re escalation risks.

But the truth is that what you term as "normal" in past has not always been cost neutral to UK energy costs.

The BBC uk natural gas price chart spiked to end of last week compared to beginning of month - over 135p/therm last Fri in the week of the incursion -  it has fallen to 120p - but still up on the 95p on Fri 6th.

Coincidence - possibly - suspect in part not.


As energy markets are certainly more "nervous" having already cut ourselves off (in part) from Russian supplies here in W Europe (EU) and UK.

I suspect 2 years ago (edit with Russia's gas flowing freely through pipes) EU futures gas prices would have largely "ignored" the recent Australian lng strikes - threat of and actual both caused non trivial spikes - despite large store reserves in EU at time.

And any spike making its way into Ofgem pricing windows matters.

And that's a potential issue for some of those deciding to fix or not.

JohnB47

OK, I've just signed up for the 12 month fixed Octopus deal. I feel that, over the next year,  the potential benefits of doing this outweigh the potential disadvantages. Let's see how it pans out.

northernstar007

right folks i am in 2 minds doing the tracker or octopus fix
i am with sp right now offering higher price tariff fix for 12mths
my current tariff is up in end jan24, paying lot less dc (41p) combined but over 8.2pk/w gas and 28.7p elec
ive asked in sp chat that i wont be charged exit fee if i go to there std tariff, but there is £30 per fuel if i jump straight to octopus, so shall i start the ball rolling and go onto std tariff with sp, and then sign up with octopus

spot1034

northernstar007 said:

right folks i am in 2 minds doing the tracker or octopus fix
i am with sp right now offering higher price tariff fix for 12mths
my current tariff is up in end jan24, paying lot less dc (41p) combined but over 8.2pk/w gas and 28.7p elec
ive asked in sp chat that i wont be charged exit fee if i go to there std tariff, but there is £30 per fuel if i jump straight to octopus, so shall i start the ball rolling and go onto std tariff with sp, and then sign up with octopus

You need to be sure that the exit fee won't be triggered if you move to the SVT and then, within the period your fix would still have been in operation, you leave altogether. Bear in mind you can leave within 49 days of the tariff end date without penalty - that's only eight weeks or so. 

If I might say so, this is an odd time to be contemplating a move to tracker with the very real possibility of prices being higher than the SVT during the winter. Of-course they might not, but you'll be lucky if you end up not paying a premium for some of the time. 

If it were me I'd wait and watch tracker to see what happens during the winter and join in the spring if I still felt it was right for me. 

As for the Octopus fix, I believe someone posted earlier today that it might not be possible to go on to a fixed deal with Octopus immediately after joining them. 

northernstar007

you are right i was on about moving straight onto a fix and not a tracker atm, i do have the 49days end of contract which is mid dec, and i for sure dont want to be paying any exit fees

spot1034

northernstar007 said:

you are right i was on about moving straight onto a fix and not a tracker atm, i do have the 49days end of contract which is mid dec, and i for sure dont want to be paying any exit fees

Looks like the poster who thought it might not be possible to go straight on to a fix has now been advised by Octopus that it is!