I lost my nerve and have fixed

JohnB47

MultiFuelBurner said:

The Octopus fix is very tempting as it matches the price cap with a smaller standing charge. With all the news and uncertainty you sound like you have made the right decision for yourself and can now know for certain what you will pay for the next year.

Well I'm confused. I'm an Octopus Duel fuel customer and I've checked their available 12 month fixed contract. It has exactly the same tariff as my current flexible one - to the penny.

Do you mean a smaller standing charge than the price cap or compared to your variable tariff?

Spoonie_Turtle

JohnB47 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

The Octopus fix is very tempting as it matches the price cap with a smaller standing charge. With all the news and uncertainty you sound like you have made the right decision for yourself and can now know for certain what you will pay for the next year.

Well I'm confused. I'm an Octopus Duel fuel customer and I've checked their available 12 month fixed contract. It has exactly the same tariff as my current flexible one - to the penny.

Do you mean a smaller standing charge than the price cap or compared to your variable tariff?

It's compared with the price cap.

MultiFuelBurner

JohnB47 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

The Octopus fix is very tempting as it matches the price cap with a smaller standing charge. With all the news and uncertainty you sound like you have made the right decision for yourself and can now know for certain what you will pay for the next year.

Well I'm confused. I'm an Octopus Duel fuel customer and I've checked their available 12 month fixed contract. It has exactly the same tariff as my current flexible one - to the penny.

Do you mean a smaller standing charge than the price cap or compared to your variable tariff?

I was advising non octopus customers of the offer 0% rise on the current price cap and a cheaper SC than their energy supplier. Just incase they wanted to come over to the tentacled one

JohnB47

Thanks for that. I'll think things over and will probably go for the Octopus fix. I can't really imagine energy prices doing anything other than rising in the near future. The worlds gone mad.

Stubod

..I have just decided to fix with Octopus.......so I can now guarantee that nobody else should, as prices will surely tumble as from tomorrow.....you have  been warned!!

LoopySnooker

MikeJXE said:

rates might rocket but if they come down it will only be by a small amount. Lower rates have made little impact on my bills but higher rates do

This was my exact thinking when I chose to fix for 24 months a couple of weeks back. Any possible reduction to prices will only be relatively small, whereas potential increases aren't likely to be.

We may end up losing out but the comfort of 2 years at a known price is worth something in itself. A new boiler recently installed should help get our gas consumption down by around 1500 kWh too hopefully.

la531983

Stubod said:

..I have just decided to fix with Octopus.......so I can now guarantee that nobody else should, as prices will surely tumble as from tomorrow.....you have  been warned!!

Natural gas price was down 11% today.... 

Stubod

..thanks for that...just proves my point....I have the same effect on stocks and shares....

[Deleted User]

Gerry1 said:

fronty said:

I'm currently on Octopus variable rate tariff - with news of the gas wholesale price rocketing, war in Israel, Ukraine still rumbling on and a spike in demand due to cold weather (with winter coming anyway), I think gas prices are only going to go one way... up!
So even though unit rates are still really high (historically), I'm bailing and fixing for 12 months - the Octopus fix seems to use todays SVR rates, it just locks them in for 12 months.
Anyone else considering it?

I've taken the bait as well for gas.  Any price reduction is likely to be small and won't kick in before April when summer consumption will be much lower.  But given the known unknowns of world politics plus the unknown unknowns, the risk of a big increase in January seems quite high.

The Octopus standing charge is lower than the cap, and I really like Octopus, so I doubt that anything fantastic is likely to be offered by another company.

And if by some miracle there's a price crash then the £75 exit fee means there's still a viable escape route.

I think you hit the nail on the head with this post, especially in relation to unknown unknowns, which obviously don't factor into price predictions. Personally I can't say I know which countries have the potential to have the biggest impact on gas prices let alone the political risks there. As I understand it CI forecasts and the like are made broadly on the basis of the geopolitical situation as it is which leaves lots of scope for big swings. Given the way the world is right now I think there's a strong case for fixing unless it comes at a big premium.

Scot_39

Krakkkers said:

Neither Israel or Gaza have any oil?

Learn from history.

OAPEC  crisis in 1973/4 - Arab states banned oil exports to US and parts of Western Europe due to their support for Isreal.

And how bad was that - well oil went from $3 to $12 - quadrupled in price in months.

UK still recovering from that when Iranian revolution kicked in in 1979, by 1980 another full blown energy crisis was engulfing the West.  Oil doubled in price to c$40 barrell.

Again with massive economic damage.

Net results UK inflation and interest rates once again into mid teens - including mortgage rates - and in UK about 3m more unemployed over the decade 73 to 83.

The UK is not immune to world events - and the world does not always support the Western view.

And despite all of that no UK govt since Thatcher has prioritised UK energy security - by building enough reliable non fossil power generation.  And even then they built less than promissed - seduced by "cheap" gas - iirc by Major's time they to had stopped.  And most of the nuclear plants built then are now closed or closing in next few years.

Could it be that bad again - who knows  - but to pretend this is some local conflict - denies the geopolitics of the region and the source of Western oil and gas.

Edit : and Isreal is a small source of gas.  About 0.5% global - but normally self sufficient and exports over a third to neighbouring Arab nations like Jordan Egypt etc