Octopus fixed rate 12m

ZaEE

Hi
I just had a question about the a fixed rate offer from Octopus. On the fix, stick or switch pages it says the Octopus fixed rate for 12 months for existing customers is 6% lower than the current tariff but the quote I’ve been given for electricity is over 36p per kWh which is quite a bit higher. If prices fall in October this seems to be quite a high price to pay for a year .. I’m a bit confused about it all really. I’d like to fix for security but this seems like a lot to me. All the estimates I see on here suggest electricity could go down to 29 or 27p per kWh which puts this fixed rate really high .. I just don’t want to pay more than I need too. What do you think? Thanks 

la531983

What is the name of the tariff being offered?

ZaEE

Loyal Octopus 12 month

[Deleted User]

When you make your decision you need to consider that the fixed rate is guaranteed for the duration of the contract (12 months) whereas what your comparing it to are just guesses as to what might happen. The only way you'll know with any certaintly what you'll pay is to fix.

Think of it this way. If you stay on the standard variable rate you're taking a gamble. Prices could go down a bit, or even as much as 10% or 20%, but I haven't seen any predictions of dramatic prices falls below that. On the flipside, if the war in Ukraine escalates, China gets involved or takes the opportunity to invade Taiwan (or whatever) or some unforeseen thing happens then prices could easily sky-rocket. For example, even the threat of a strike by gas workers in Australia (and possibly other factors) was enough to cause gas prices to go up dramatically before falling again in August. Then of course there are all the the "we don't know what we don't know factors" - for example, are you up to date with latin American politics and do you have a good understanding of what might happen there to destabilise prices? I certainly don't.

When you look at other price predictions quoted in the media (for example, from the likes of Cornwall Insights) you need to be clear what they are saying. Are they saying "we've look at all the geo-political factors that could influence prices, and based on that our prediction is xyz" or are they saying "we can't possibily predict where the geo-political factors we know about will take us or if there are other factors we don't know about, but assuming nothing unexpected happens then our prediction is xyz"?

I'm not predicting that prices are going to double - in fact I suspect that they will stay about where they are now with a bit of fluctuation. But it would come as no surprise to me if they did double and if you're finances are tight or you're simply "not the gambling type" then there's a lot to be said for choosing to fix to avoid the risk.

If you fix you can't say with certainty whether you would be better off gambling or not, but you can be certain of what you'll pay.

bristolleedsfan

ZaEE said:

Hi
I just had a question about the a fixed rate offer from Octopus. On the fix, stick or switch pages it says the Octopus fixed rate for 12 months for existing customers is 6% lower than the current tariff but the quote I’ve been given for electricity is over 36p per kWh which is quite a bit higher

Sounds like Eco7 day rate.

la531983

ZaEE said:

Loyal Octopus 12 month

Very odd. I have that one showing and it nowhere near 36p, even accounting for regional differences it should be nowhere near that

ZaEE

Yes that’s what I find really strange .. my quote seems really high .. I’m in the south east so I guess may be on the higher end but it just feels high .. 

ZaEE

[Deleted User] said:

When you make your decision you need to consider that the fixed rate is guaranteed for the duration of the contract (12 months) whereas what your comparing it to are just guesses as to what might happen. The only way you'll know with any certaintly what you'll pay is to fix.

Think of it this way. If you stay on the standard variable rate you're taking a gamble. Prices could go down a bit, or even as much as 10% or 20%, but I haven't seen any predictions of dramatic prices falls below that. On the flipside, if the war in Ukraine escalates, China gets involved or takes the opportunity to invade Taiwan (or whatever) or some unforeseen thing happens then prices could easily sky-rocket. For example, even the threat of a strike by gas workers in Australia (and possibly other factors) was enough to cause gas prices to go up dramatically before falling again in August. Then of course there are all the the "we don't know what we don't know factors" - for example, are you up to date with latin American politics and do you have a good understanding of what might happen there to destabilise prices? I certainly don't.

When you look at other price predictions quoted in the media (for example, from the likes of Cornwall Insights) you need to be clear what they are saying. Are they saying "we've look at all the geo-political factors that could influence prices, and based on that our prediction is xyz" or are they saying "we can't possibily predict where the geo-political factors we know about will take us or if there are other factors we don't know about, but assuming nothing unexpected happens then our prediction is xyz"?

I'm not predicting that prices are going to double - in fact I suspect that they will stay about where they are now with a bit of fluctuation. But it would come as no surprise to me if they did double and if you're finances are tight or you're simply "not the gambling type" then there's a lot to be said for choosing to fix to avoid the risk.

If you fix you can't say with certainty whether you would be better off gambling or not, but you can be certain of what you'll pay.

I know the world is so unstable it’s impossible to tell what will happen .. money is tight so I’m tempted to fix but it just seems a high quote and I want I make sure I’m getting the best deal I can for now .. thanks for your comment 

la531983

ZaEE said:

Yes that’s what I find really strange .. my quote seems really high .. I’m in the south east so I guess may be on the higher end but it just feels high .. 

The difference shouldnt be 9p or so though. Pennies at most.

ZaEE

la531983 said:

ZaEE said:

Yes that’s what I find really strange .. my quote seems really high .. I’m in the south east so I guess may be on the higher end but it just feels high .. 

The difference shouldnt be 9p or so though. Pennies at most.

Yes I agree .. it doesn’t make sense .. it’s above the quote for flexible standard tariff. I’m going to ask them to check it again .
Is your quote for loyal octopus 22 months? 

Thanks for sharing your quote 

ZaEE

Sorry I meant 12 months not 22