Sainsbury Energy increase actual usage by over 10% on quote to renew my contract.

amsquared

I have been very fortunate to have had a 2 year fix with Sainsbury Energy (£177 / month) which expires at the end of August 2023.

Checking what they would quote for a new 1 year fix (1 Year Fix and Reward v37) they have increased my actual 2022/2023 usage by over 10% to provide a new quote of £273/month. This seems strange on the basis that we are encouraged to save energy. The new quote is £96 a month more than my current monthly payment.

My actual usage is 4,275 kWh Electricity and 18,677 kWh Gas. Sainsbury have used 4,710 kWh Electricity and 21,076 kWh Gas

I have tried to do a new Sainsbury quote as a new customer but their quote page is broken.

I have done a quote based on my actual usage with E-On Next, who now supply Sainsbury Energy, and their straight Next Flex or Next Online V23 12 month fix quote is £248 - £25 less than my Sainsbury quote. Octopus and So Juniper energy have similar quotes to the E-On Next quote.

The Nectar rewards offered by Sainsbury would not account for the difference of £300 per year.

I have emailed Sainsbury to ask why they estimated my usage will increase and asked for a new quote based on my actual usage.

My account is now £600 in credit but Sainsbury Energy website is not allowing me to reclaim that extra credit. The link to do that is broken. I have emailed them about that as well.

If you had to choose supplier who would you choose between Sainsbury, E-On Next, Octopus or SO?

Dogbyte009

At one time I would have recommended SO but lately their customer service has gone down the pan. I had to contact them three times over several months to get a billing issue sorted.

Scot_39

Does your nectar rewards actually cost you that much on unit rates or is it a genuine reward ?

Forget annualised DD for now.

Sainsburies may be / probably ate just using a model forecasting a more normal winter usage level than last years.  Some posters say 10-15 possibly even 20% yearly variations more than possible.

Concentrate on SC and unit rates for supplier comparisons and SVT vs fix where offered.

And work on those higher than average use levels if can to control absolute bills once decide on rates.

Most but not all SVT deals recently were set at Ofgem cap / govtvepg discount levels.

Fix savings are available with a growing number of suppliers but for many maybe order of c5% - warning some come with hard tie ins to c£150 in DF exit fees (Octopus iirc) , others allow easy release via SVT step (EOnNext so maybe Sainsburys)

At one stage Octopus were offering small discounts on SVT SC etc (but at c2% per fuel - maybe £10-12 pa - hardly a deal breaker for a higher than average unit  user) but they have a raft of special ev and wholesale linked options as well which some here are very keen on given the past savings they have achieved cf e.g. recent epg and Ofgem cap rates.

CSI_Yorkshire

Your actual usage last year was 4,275 kWh Electricity and 18,677 kWh Gas.

Your actual usage next year is anyone's guess.  You have guessed it will be the same as last year.  Sainsburys have guessed you will use more.  Just because you have a different guess from the supplier doesn't make either of you wrong.

The other suppliers have a smaller monthly figure because they have used your guess.  That doesn't mean you were right, it just means that's what you told them.

Your Direct Debit is not your bill.  If you pay based on their guess, and it turns out your guess was right, you will get the extra back (eventually).  If you change supplier and therefore pay based on your guess, and it turns out that their guess was right, you will be in debt.

Dolor

Your actual usage next year is anyone's guess.  You have guessed it will be the same as last year.  Sainsburys have guessed you will use more.  Just because you have a different guess from the supplier doesn't make either of you wrong.

When producing future cost estimates based on usage, ALL suppliers apply a seasonal variation to previous actual usage. If the last 12 months was unusually warm, then the past actual usage will be increased. It matters not a jot. Consumers only pay for the actual energy used at the agreed tariff price.

dunstonh

Checking what they would quote for a new 1 year fix (1 Year Fix and Reward v37) they have increased my actual 2022/2023 usage by over 10% to provide a new quote of £273/month. This seems strange on the basis that we are encouraged to save energy. The new quote is £96 a month more than my current monthly payment.

That seems reasonable given that 2022 was a drought year with a very mild winter.     Heating use was around 20% lower for most people.    So, you would be daft to use 2022 usage figures as a guide to the year ahead.

Suppliers tend to use the median rather than a hot year as a guide to future price modelling.

Robin9

@amsquared

Your actual usage last year was 4,275 kWh Electricity and 18,677 kWh Gas. 

Both are rather high - any reason ?  Perhaps time for some housekeeping

amsquared

The average winter temperatures in Scotland where we live have remained fairly consistent 2021, 2022, 2023 with some very cold spells and other relatively mild but wet spells. We are retired and live in a 3 bedroom timber frame bungalow built 1989 with our son. We look after infant grandkids 2 or 3 days a week and we do like the house to be warm. While the 2022 summer was very warm we didn't experience the excessive heat that England experienced.

We have a fairly new AA rated boiler good loft insulation new double glazing installed 2014.

Our energy usage for the past 3 years has been fairly consistent and compares favourably with retired neighbours in similar houses nearby. This year we are in credit  £610 which is an increase of £450 over July 2022 I'm not sure how much the government rebate affected the level of credit we have but Sainsbury have agreed to return £450 next week.

I've just looked back at Sainsbury's estimated annual usage for the past 3 years and it has actually decreased 2022 to 2023. 

2021 - 4580 electricity 21238 gas Sept 2021
2022 - 4846 electricity 21871 gas July 2022
2023 - 4709 electricity 21013 gas July 2023

I am waiting to see if they will give me a quote based on actual usage.

CSI_Yorkshire

Your estimate could well be better than Sainsbury's then.

amsquared

My current tariff which expires at end of August is as follows - the new unit rates and standing charges are shown in bold brackets for a new 1 year Fix and Reward V37

Electricity

Tariff Name - 2 Year Fix and Reward v16
Product Type -  Fixed
Payment Method - Direct Debit
Unit Rate - 17.666p/kWh - ( 29.4252 per kWh)
Standing Charge - 25.258p per day = £92.19/year - ( 61.67 p per day = £225.10 per annum )
Price Guaranteed Until 30th Aug. 2023 

You will see that while the unit rate for electricity has increased by 66%  the standing charge for electricity has increased by a huge 144%

I've checked the Octopus quote based on my actual usage and the Octopus unit rate for electricity is 29.67/kWh and standing charge 60.02p per day broadly similar to Sainsbury

Gas

Tariff Name - 2 Year Fix and Reward v16 
Product Type - Fixed
Payment Method - Direct Debit
Unit Rate - 3.126p/kWh - ( 7.4046 kWh )
Standing Charge - 26.899 per day = £98.18/year - (29.11p per day  = £106.25 per annum )
Price Guaranteed Until - 30th Aug. 2023

You will see that while the unit rate for gas has increased by 136% the standing charge for gas has increased by just 8%

I've checked the Octopus quote based on my actual usage and the Octopus unit rate for gas is 7.46/kWh and standing charge 27.47p per day broadly similar to Sainsbury

It really is a minefield trying to decide/predict what will happen next.

Thanks for your replies so far 

Dogbyte009

amsquared said:

Unit Rate - 17.666p/kWh - ( 29.4252 per kWh)
Standing Charge - 25.258p per day = £92.19/year - ( 61.67 p per day = £225.10 per annum )
Price Guaranteed Until 30th Aug. 2023 

You will see that while the unit rate for electricity has increased by 166%  the standing charge for electricity has increased by a huge 244%

Gas

Unit Rate - 3.126p/kWh - ( 7.4046 kWh )
Standing Charge - 26.899 per day = £98.18/year - (29.11p per day  = £106.25 per annum )
Price Guaranteed Until - 30th Aug. 2023

You will see that while the unit rate for gas has increased by 236% the standing charge for gas has increased by just 8%

Your percentages are a bit adrift. Your electricity standing charge is actually up 144%, the unit rate 66.56%

For gas the unit rate is 136% up. Your standing charge percentage is correct.