The Guardian: UK mortgage lender [Skipton] to offer first 100% loans since 2008 crisis

MobileSaver

Yellowsub2000 said:

MobileSaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

Gavin83 said:

Yellowsub2000 said:

Gavin83 said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

BikingBud said:

See Skipton BS Mortgage

Reality on the ground

Yes, looks like prices need to fall quite a bit now to attract any buyers.

Except they're not struggling to find buyers. If you read the article it states properties are increasing in price and still selling quickly. The only people that seem to be struggling based on that article are young FTBs, especially single people.

Yellowsub2000 said:

It’s not going to be a housing apocalypse, it’s just going to be a correction.

Interest rates are going back to normal so property will go back to normal in relation to everything else.

property went up artificially due to artificially low interest rates but things are correcting now back to normal  

Out of interest how much do you think house prices will drop as part of this correction?

experts like moving home with Charlie say between 35% to 50% by the time the correction is over

Who?

There is zero chance that house prices will drop by 50%. I'm so confident they won't that I'll buy you a house if they do.

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MattMattMattUK said:

Yellowsub2000 said:

Gavin83 said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

BikingBud said:

See Skipton BS Mortgage

Reality on the ground

Yes, looks like prices need to fall quite a bit now to attract any buyers.

Except they're not struggling to find buyers. If you read the article it states properties are increasing in price and still selling quickly. The only people that seem to be struggling based on that article are young FTBs, especially single people.

Yellowsub2000 said:

It’s not going to be a housing apocalypse, it’s just going to be a correction.

Interest rates are going back to normal so property will go back to normal in relation to everything else.

property went up artificially due to artificially low interest rates but things are correcting now back to normal  

Out of interest how much do you think house prices will drop as part of this correction?

experts like moving home with Charlie say between 35% to 50% by the time the correction is over

Having a few thousand followers on Twitter does not make someone an expert. 

Who are the real experts in your opinion?

In all honesty for industries like this I don't really believe in experts. They so often get financial predictions wrong because the truth of the matter is no one knows.

However everything I've seen from the 'experts' (ie: people who work in the field, lenders, surveyors) seem to predict anywhere between a few % up to a max of 10% over the next year, having recovered within a few years after that. I expect that's a much more realistic outlook. Unfortunately for those that want a price drop this wouldn't even be enough to bring them down to pre-pandemic levels.

We bought in late 2021. Since that time our house has increased in value by around 12.5%, according to the bank anyway. Even if it dropped 10% we'd still be in profit. I'd take that.

Those predictions don`t work within the parameters of the rate changes though, they don`t really come close to making sense within those parameters, you have to ask yourself how much a house/flat cost when rates were last at this level, then you need to ask what has changed? The "supply and demand" argument doesn`t work because the "demand" side is also working within the interest rate parameters, and that affects massively how much they can pay.

How do those predictions work within the parameters of the real world?

Where are all these half price houses going to come from? Both building materials costs and labour rates have been increasing for years (and of course especially dramatically over the last two years) so how many new houses do you think will get built if the selling price is half what it is today?

The cost of building a cheap property is still considerably cheaper than the selling price. There is lots of room to fall before its not economic to build any new properties 

Um, no, typical margin for house builders is around 20% so no-one will be building houses in your make-believe apocalypse scenario.

MultiFuelBurner

Housebuilders will just stop building if there is no profit. Exacerbating the problem and raising prices higher. 

Sarah1Mitty2

MultiFuelBurner said:

Housebuilders will just stop building if there is no profit. Exacerbating the problem and raising prices higher. 

If that happened there would be a lot,of construction workers and supply companies in trouble, with higher borrowing rates that would make prices go lower not higher, wouldn`t matter though because there are already enough houses, no one viewing a house to buy or rent is homeless.

MultiFuelBurner

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Housebuilders will just stop building if there is no profit. Exacerbating the problem and raising prices higher. 

If that happened there would be a lot,of construction workers and supply companies in trouble, with higher borrowing rates that would make prices go lower not higher, wouldn`t matter though because there are already enough houses, no one viewing a house to buy or rent is homeless.

I couldn't take you seriously once you said there was no recession in 2008.

Everything you say is just..............

Sarah1Mitty2

MultiFuelBurner said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Housebuilders will just stop building if there is no profit. Exacerbating the problem and raising prices higher. 

If that happened there would be a lot,of construction workers and supply companies in trouble, with higher borrowing rates that would make prices go lower not higher, wouldn`t matter though because there are already enough houses, no one viewing a house to buy or rent is homeless.

I couldn't take you seriously once you said there was no recession in 2008.

Everything you say is just..............

So are you saying developers just stopping wouldn`t have a knock on effect for construction workers and supply companies? 

MobileSaver

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Housebuilders will just stop building if there is no profit. Exacerbating the problem and raising prices higher. 

If that happened there would be a lot,of construction workers and supply companies in trouble, with higher borrowing rates that would make prices go lower not higher

Huh, building less houses will somehow make prices go lower?!?! It's a bit early to be drinking isn't it?

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

there are already enough houses, no one viewing a house to buy or rent is homeless.

What a silly thing to say! If there are already enough houses and no-one viewing a house to buy or rent is homeless then why were 200,000 new houses built last year, why will another six-figure number be built this year and more pertinently why did over 1,000,000 people in the UK buy a property last year?

[Deleted User]

MultiFuelBurner said:

Housebuilders will just stop building if there is no profit. Exacerbating the problem and raising prices higher. 

That's how business works, if they can't make a big profit they just shut the whole thing down and the directors go on Universal Credit, rather than put off buying that 3rd Mercedes for another six months.

Sarah1Mitty2

MobileSaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Housebuilders will just stop building if there is no profit. Exacerbating the problem and raising prices higher. 

If that happened there would be a lot,of construction workers and supply companies in trouble, with higher borrowing rates that would make prices go lower not higher

Huh, building less houses will somehow make prices go lower?!?! It's a bit early to be drinking isn't it?

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

there are already enough houses, no one viewing a house to buy or rent is homeless.

What a silly thing to say! If there are already enough houses and no-one viewing a house to buy or rent is homeless then why were 200,000 new houses built last year, why will another six-figure number be built this year and more pertinently why did over 1,000,000 people in the UK buy a property last year?

More unemployment and higher borrowing costs will make prices go lower yes, building houses is neither here nor there as there are already more than enough "units". 

I have an electric guitar, I have had it for over 30 years and don`t really need another one, why are there still three or four guitar stores in my area full of electric guitars? People like to buy new and different things, people might not like living at home forever or might want a house instead of a flat, but they don`t HAVE to buy these things as they already have housing, or are you seriously going to say that there are people viewing new-builds etc. that don`t have anywhere to live unless they buy it?