Crystal ball on Barclays shares

Brie

I was delighted to see there was a bit of a jump up for BARC today.  I would love to see this match where is was a year back but I know that's very unlikely.  But does anyone have any ideas whether the market in general will continue to climb over the next couple of weeks and BARC in particular?

Now I know this is a completely crystal ball type of question in some ways.  But the more astute amongst you will no doubt no whether it's normal for things to be snakes or ladders the first of a new year, whether there's any big planned political event in the next couple of weeks that might skew things, or something else.....

Yes I know I shouldn't rely on the kindness of strangers but I'm in a muddled headspace currently (cold/flu/work) and needing to make decisions on a large (for me) assortment of shares and options with BARC by the end of the month.  Obviously I want to max my profits as I had been counting on some of this as living expenses until more of my pensions kick in.  It's only BARC that I currently hold and will be perfectly happy to move away from it if the price is right.  On the other hand I don't want to make the same mistake of a year back when the share price was climbing and I held on to a share option waiting for it to hit £2.20 only for it to drop over a cliff edge.  

adindas

I have not looked BARC recently. But  A few months ago, Barclay Fundamental was good. I do not think there is a major change. As I have not followed the news recently, I also want to know if there is news or sort of that could hammer the price down significantly.

But what to be aware of is that. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keynes)  especially in the bear market. The share price could drop far beyond their fundamental value. For that reason, it is good to do DCAs, or even better with enhanced DCAs, combined with technical analysis. That is what I personally have done.

There was a thread about this in the past.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6340413/suggestions-for-a-sound-share-investment/p1

This is not a financial advice, we take your own gain but we also need to take our own loss.

Brie

@adindas
sorry but what's DCAs mean?

Is it relevant if I'm only interested in selling (or not) rather than buying?

adindas

Brie said:

@adindas
sorry but what's DCAs mean?

Is it relevant if I'm only interested in selling (or not) rather than buying?

DCA (Dollar Cost averaging)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

DCA is a well known strategy used by strategist in the bear market. I have posted a lot of this in the past multiple times. But when I mentioned this I got fiercely attacked by the same group of people here on MSE who cheering up each other. I have been saying that since the beginning of early 2022.

Early last year some people were suggesting other people to throw lump-sum £100k, £300k while there were no evidence those who suggested that were doing that by themselves.See what have happened to these people who threw their money a few hundreds thousand pound early last year now..

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417 Smart Strategies for a Bear Market By The Investopedia Team May 30, 2022 Reviewed by Robert C. Kelly Fact checked by Diane Costagliola

https://www.capitalgroup.com/pcs/insights/articles/benefits of dollar cost averaging spring 2020.html A simple approach can help limit the downside during a bear market

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock market/basics/dollar cost averaging/ Generally speaking, dollar cost averaging works best in bear markets and with securities that have dramatic price swings up and down. It is those times, and those types of investments, where reducing investor anxiety and fear of missing out tend to be the most important.

https://www.investors.com/etfs and funds/mutual funds/dollar cost averaging is good for a falling market/ Dollar Cost Averaging Good In A Falling Market JULIE MAK 

DCA is used in buying share, not selling. For selling people could observe it from their valuation and to be compared with the peers and industry, whether the price of those particular stock is already expensive the things like Price target, P/E ratio, P/FCF, CR, D/E ratios etc. as it is currently the bear market it is good if it is combined with technical analysis.

Perksy5

I'm in a similar boat keenly watching the share price.
I too was very upset that the price fell from 2.20 but I think its to do with a few issues from a years ago that are catching up. (Over issuance of securities)
I think it'll take the rest or the year or even longer for the price to recover. As much as I'd love to see it hit £2+ by November, I think I'm being too optimistic.

egroeg1980

Hi Brie. 

Interesting dilemma. I don't think anyone can truly say for the short term lens which is what you're concern is. 

I am long on Barclays and happy with the peaks and troughs that will occur as not planning to sell anytime soon... 

You make a good observation around no political hiccups due in the coming weeks, however, let's remember 2020 when the year started rosy and within weeks the market was in turmoil. There is a rumour of another variant and if that sentiment increases, then it'll likely have a knock on affect to the SP. From a government perspective, I think rishi is trying to keep stability at the fore which the banks and investors are dovish on, so I think this will favour BARC and the other UK banks in the next few weeks. 

If you're looking for a rogue punt (which it sounds like you are), then I'd say hold to mid Jan on the basis of it teasing 17/18???....

Good luck and check back in a few weeks to see where the SP got to!

wmb194

Due to the improving interest rate environment the recent market sentiment towards banks has been positive but obviously this can quickly change if we start to hear more about recession and loan defaults. 

The next key date for Barclays is on 15/02/23 when it reports its full year results for 2022 and you can expect some movement one way or another that day. Barclays' general problem is that it tends to be accident prone - regulatory problems here, unexpected provisions there - so I'd imagine investors could be in a wait and see mode between now and then.

https://home.barclays/investor-relations/reports-and-events/financial-calendar/

Brie

@adindas
DCA (Dollar Cost averaging) - I assume that this is the priniciple with regular investing.  In my case it's in part a sharepurchase scheme with the added benefit of effectively buying throughout at half the market price so I'm good there.  If only I had a few £100k to be throwing at the market.....my life isn't on that scale!

@egroeg1980 & @wmb194
Thanks for the simple English.  Obviously wait and see is the only option to find out what the future holds.  In the meantime any clue when the next dividend dates are?  Can't seem to find anything anywhere but I expect that's just general brain fog blinding me.  I haven't managed to look through all the links posters have given me so likely it's there some place.

inflationbuster

I am long NWG, LLOY and BARC.  BARC has been my worst performer (NWG being the best) and it's currently trading at P/E of 5.x vs NWG and LLOY at P/E 10.x and 7.x respectively. 

There's clearly value in BARC and l suspect the market is waiting for the final results.  They messed up big time with the selling of unregistered securities, so lost investor confidence, hence IMHO the reason the shares are trading at a low valuation amongst it's peers. 

An increase in dividend and a buyback would be pleasing. 

wmb194

Brie said:

@adindas
DCA (Dollar Cost averaging) - I assume that this is the priniciple with regular investing.  In my case it's in part a sharepurchase scheme with the added benefit of effectively buying throughout at half the market price so I'm good there.  If only I had a few £100k to be throwing at the market.....my life isn't on that scale!

@egroeg1980 & @wmb194
Thanks for the simple English.  Obviously wait and see is the only option to find out what the future holds.  In the meantime any clue when the next dividend dates are?  Can't seem to find anything anywhere but I expect that's just general brain fog blinding me.  I haven't managed to look through all the links posters have given me so likely it's there some place.

The next dividend will likely be paid in early April after going ex late Feb or early March. 

This is a good website for looking up dividends for companies and ETFs: https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=Barc

egroeg1980

Hi Brie,

Checkout DividendMax website. The free interface allows you to simply plug in your chosen stock and it will give you a nice simple summary of the looming Div dates, plus a calculator that tells you last and next payment. 

There is a paid service with DividendMax, but you dont need it to simply scope out BARC and the most immediate dates to be concerned with.

PS: 1.2% increase today on the SharePrice, I am considering dumping my holding today and scrape the profit short-term. The SP has risen steadily since the beginning of the new year (7% this week alone).