Rate rises?

Aberdeenangarse

diggingdude said:

Aberdeenangarse said:

ader42 said:

I think we will gradually return to more historically normal rates.

US is strongly indicating their base rate will be going upto 5% and we have no choice but to follow suit even if we get there more slowly. Remember inflation is still the no.1 target for BOE and is still over 10% when the target is 2%, and US rates going up makes our inflation go up not down so BOE actually need to get ahead not behind.

Add on a couple of percent for retail mortgages and we get to the long term average of near 7% but no doubt it will overshoot before settling back down and not go below 5% for a decade. All imho of course but things always seem to eventually revert to the mean. 

The Inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle and it will take a long while to get the cork back in! Average pay growth is now just shy of 6% I’m afraid there’s going to be no magic pill, Mortgage rates of 5% are now the new norm and will be here for the foreseeable future.

Mind me asking where you got the wage growth stat from? 

ONS - August figures

simon_or

diggingdude said:

Aberdeenangarse said:

ader42 said:

I think we will gradually return to more historically normal rates.

US is strongly indicating their base rate will be going upto 5% and we have no choice but to follow suit even if we get there more slowly. Remember inflation is still the no.1 target for BOE and is still over 10% when the target is 2%, and US rates going up makes our inflation go up not down so BOE actually need to get ahead not behind.

Add on a couple of percent for retail mortgages and we get to the long term average of near 7% but no doubt it will overshoot before settling back down and not go below 5% for a decade. All imho of course but things always seem to eventually revert to the mean. 

The Inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle and it will take a long while to get the cork back in! Average pay growth is now just shy of 6% I’m afraid there’s going to be no magic pill, Mortgage rates of 5% are now the new norm and will be here for the foreseeable future.

Mind me asking where you got the wage growth stat from? 

Latest ONS release on wage growth.

cook0891

Lewis7498 said:

Just been told by Halifax that the rate is only secured for that day (despite their mortgage advisor telling me it’s definitely secure if we spoke by 31st October before the new month starts!!)

Still waiting on declaration paperwork so they best not change it! This all no good for my nerves! 😫

Her words:

Speaking Monday does give us time to get the rate secured but what it might mean is the start date for the rate would be delayed until the 1st of December at the earliest, so you would continue on your current rate until the new rate starts.

Hope you get sorted. We did ours on the Sat and got it all confirmed the Weds. Good luck. 

Lewis7498

cook0891 said:

Lewis7498 said:

Just been told by Halifax that the rate is only secured for that day (despite their mortgage advisor telling me it’s definitely secure if we spoke by 31st October before the new month starts!!)

Still waiting on declaration paperwork so they best not change it! This all no good for my nerves! 😫

Her words:

Speaking Monday does give us time to get the rate secured but what it might mean is the start date for the rate would be delayed until the 1st of December at the earliest, so you would continue on your current rate until the new rate starts.

Hope you get sorted. We did ours on the Sat and got it all confirmed the Weds. Good luck. 

Ah thank you. I think it’s because I’m reducing the term as well it’s taking longer.

But am so worried I won’t get that rate now as I’m waiting on a signed declaration to be sent out to sign and send back. Paid the ERC though so they best do!

griffinsaver26

I’m dithering on whether I fix for 3 or 5 years. Both rates under 5% (just!) so it’s just a matter of the years. I know we can’t possibly know, but any reason to think things could come down in 3 years? 

Lewis7498

Probably not but if you can just overpay as much as you can in those years. I’m doing a 3yr until Jan 26 just because it was slightly less than a 5 year but if yours is the same I’d opt for the 5 👍🏻

griffinsaver26

Thanks Lewis. 5 year is slightly less so I’ll go with that 

Nailer99

Some interesting views in this thread. 

I’m banking on the bank keeping its word when it says it won’t put rates up as high as the markets have anticipated. 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/03/bank-of-england-interest-rates-higher-uk-economy

And going for a Tracker. 🤞 

Nailer99

Hope Lewis gets his 3% fix confirmed, but the way. That’s an excellent low rate. 🤞 

cook0891

Lewis7498 said:

cook0891 said:

Lewis7498 said:

Just been told by Halifax that the rate is only secured for that day (despite their mortgage advisor telling me it’s definitely secure if we spoke by 31st October before the new month starts!!)

Still waiting on declaration paperwork so they best not change it! This all no good for my nerves! 😫

Her words:

Speaking Monday does give us time to get the rate secured but what it might mean is the start date for the rate would be delayed until the 1st of December at the earliest, so you would continue on your current rate until the new rate starts.

Hope you get sorted. We did ours on the Sat and got it all confirmed the Weds. Good luck. 

Ah thank you. I think it’s because I’m reducing the term as well it’s taking longer.

But am so worried I won’t get that rate now as I’m waiting on a signed declaration to be sent out to sign and send back. Paid the ERC though so they best do!

Ah, suspect that is what it is then mate. We were asked if want to reduce the term but they did warn if did would be a longer process and at current time with everything going on we stuck with same term. So a very simple straight forward process. 

Hopefully you all sorted soon.