Rate rises?

diystarter7

They may have risen by around 2%+ under the fool Liz Truss but with the mini-budget thrown out, it is likley to be around  0.7 to 0.8%

Personallu I cant see rates falling to under 3/4 for 4/5 years at least.

ader42

I think we will gradually return to more historically normal rates.

US is strongly indicating their base rate will be going upto 5% and we have no choice but to follow suit even if we get there more slowly. Remember inflation is still the no.1 target for BOE and is still over 10% when the target is 2%, and US rates going up makes our inflation go up not down so BOE actually need to get ahead not behind.

Add on a couple of percent for retail mortgages and we get to the long term average of near 7% but no doubt it will overshoot before settling back down and not go below 5% for a decade. All imho of course but things always seem to eventually revert to the mean. 

L9XSS

Lewis7498 said:

Do you think the fixes being offered will go up after today?
I have yet to receive any paperwork to confirm the rate so they best not pull out! So nervous! Already paid ERC so hopefully not?

I think that you will be ok. Halifax imho are a reputable lender and I would reckon that you will receive your paperwork shortly.  Whether they remove that rate in the coming weeks is another matter but sounds like it’s been agreed in principle for you.

Aberdeenangarse

ader42 said:

I think we will gradually return to more historically normal rates.

US is strongly indicating their base rate will be going upto 5% and we have no choice but to follow suit even if we get there more slowly. Remember inflation is still the no.1 target for BOE and is still over 10% when the target is 2%, and US rates going up makes our inflation go up not down so BOE actually need to get ahead not behind.

Add on a couple of percent for retail mortgages and we get to the long term average of near 7% but no doubt it will overshoot before settling back down and not go below 5% for a decade. All imho of course but things always seem to eventually revert to the mean. 

The Inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle and it will take a long while to get the cork back in! Average pay growth is now just shy of 6% I’m afraid there’s going to be no magic pill, Mortgage rates of 5% are now the new norm and will be here for the foreseeable future.

Aberdeenangarse

BoE raise base rate by 0.75% as expected.

simon_or

A 75 bp rise, like the market expected. I don't see it having much of an impact on mortgage rates.

diggingdude

Aberdeenangarse said:

ader42 said:

I think we will gradually return to more historically normal rates.

US is strongly indicating their base rate will be going upto 5% and we have no choice but to follow suit even if we get there more slowly. Remember inflation is still the no.1 target for BOE and is still over 10% when the target is 2%, and US rates going up makes our inflation go up not down so BOE actually need to get ahead not behind.

Add on a couple of percent for retail mortgages and we get to the long term average of near 7% but no doubt it will overshoot before settling back down and not go below 5% for a decade. All imho of course but things always seem to eventually revert to the mean. 

The Inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle and it will take a long while to get the cork back in! Average pay growth is now just shy of 6% I’m afraid there’s going to be no magic pill, Mortgage rates of 5% are now the new norm and will be here for the foreseeable future.

Mind me asking where you got the wage growth stat from? 

Lewis7498

Just been told by Halifax that the rate is only secured for that day (despite their mortgage advisor telling me it’s definitely secure if we spoke by 31st October before the new month starts!!)

Still waiting on declaration paperwork so they best not change it! This all no good for my nerves! 😫

Her words:

Speaking Monday does give us time to get the rate secured but what it might mean is the start date for the rate would be delayed until the 1st of December at the earliest, so you would continue on your current rate until the new rate starts.

simon_or

It'll be interesting to see if 1/2 year fixed savings rates go up or whether the expected hike was already priced in.

Savings rates didn't jump like mortgage rates did during the Truss bust-up, so by that yardstick you'd expect savings rates to go up a bit.

Lewis7498

simon_or said:

It'll be interesting to see if 1/2 year fixed savings rates go up or whether the expected hike was already priced in.

Savings rates didn't jump like mortgage rates did during the Truss bust-up, so by that yardstick you'd expect savings rates to go up a bit.

I’ve been wondering this, been holding off opening a fixed account in case it goes up. Think it’ll still be a few days before anything changes but I’m sure Martin will let us know