Will interest rates rise next month?

cricidmuslibale

DoneWorking said:

cricidmuslibale said:

phillw said:

DoneWorking said:

When do people think the BoE interest rate increase will filter through to the savings providers 

Some providers will already have priced in what they expect the November rise to be.

I think the autumn statement on 23rd November is going to be far more important.

Yes you’re on the right lines but the autumn statement is actually on 17th November!

So looks like waiting until at least December before going for a one year fixed ISA

That may or may not be a slight risk in interest rate terms depending on what is contained in the autumn statement on November 17. I’m sorry that I can’t be more helpful here.

phillw

cricidmuslibale said:
Yes you’re on the right lines but the autumn statement is actually on 17th November!

Whoops, I still had the original date of the OBR report in mind. Which has been moved a couple of times since then.

It might change again when next months Prime Minister is wheeled in.

phillw

cricidmuslibale said:
It’s a very understandable mistake so no need to worry at all!

I blame the 1922 committee.... https://youtu.be/0CEp5_2_VUk?t=21

Desk

I still lean towards the philosophy that long-term fixed rate accounts are pricing in the projected trajectory of the base rate.

Even if the base rate goes up by a whole point on Nov 3, I can't see the five-year fix average of about 5% going up on the basis of that.

In fact, with the demise of Trussonomics, which threatened to push higher the terminal rate needed to quell inflation, I think we might see it falling back a bit. Tesco's five year fix has already dropped from 4.95% last week to 4.8% now.

There have been hints from Bank of England Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, Ben Broadbent that the base rate may not need to go as high as was expected, and indications that rises too high could seriously impact the economy.

The only potential wrinkle here is a suggestion that our American cousins may need to push their base rate to an even higher terminal rate, and the potential that they drag us along with them?

hallmark

The MPC are perma-doves.   0.5% increase at most I'd be astounded if they actually did their job and raised by more.

Millyonare

BoE needs to match this week's ECB decision and go 0.75%.

But the BoE has been a disaster in recent years, always behind the inflation curve, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see just 0.50% next week.

sevenhills

Millyonare said:

But the BoE has been a disaster in recent years, always behind the inflation curve, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see just 0.50% next week.

Surely the BoE has been in discussion with the Government and the chancellor has told them to go easy on the interest rates because the Government has a substantial debt?

rothers

I’ve got a two year bond paying 0.85% above the base rate, is it worth fixing some at current one year fix rates or put more into the two year bond?

what are the estimates for interest rates in 12 months and 24 months?

I’m torn between both!!

oz0707

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said:

But the BoE has been a disaster in recent years, always behind the inflation curve, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see just 0.50% next week.

Surely the BoE has been in discussion with the Government and the chancellor has told them to go easy on the interest rates because the Government has a substantial debt?

They're independent and it's a vote. I'm sure it's a factor in their decisions but I don't think govt dictates their policy. 

rothers

https://capital.com/projected-interest-rates-in-5-years-in-the-uk

That article thinks that the boebr will peak at 3%