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MSE News: What's happening to mortgage rates following the mini-budget reversal – MSE's analysis

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Interest rates on mortgages could start falling in the next few weeks, following the Government's reversal of its mini-budget which has helped calm the financial markets. If you're looking to get a new mortgage deal soon, here's our latest analysis. 

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'What's happening to mortgage rates following the mini-budget reversal - MSE's analysis'

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  • housebuyer143
    housebuyer143 Posts: 3,520 Forumite
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    edited 18 October 2022 at 6:14PM
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    The problem is no lender wants to be the first one to reduce their rates because they'll be inundated with business. Many lenders already have more applications than they can handle. As long as they are getting applications at 6% there is no incentive to bring them down.
  • london21
    london21 Posts: 2,096 Forumite
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    The banks do not drop rates as quick as they increase it.

    Next BOE announcement not until 3rd of November I am surprised rates already 5/6%+

    The mini budget hasn’t helped.

  • kingstreet
    kingstreet Posts: 38,828 Forumite
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    Notification of rate reductions on new Barclays semi-exclusives today;-

    The mortgage market continues to move at a fast pace and we’re pleased to confirm we’re reducing the 2 and 5 year semi exclusive Purchase and Remortgage fixed rates we launched yesterday. These products, detailed below, will be available to you from tomorrow, Thursday 20th October, 2022.

    Semi exclusive purchase products - reduced

    • 6.07% 2 Year Fixed, £899 product fee, 85% LTV, Loans £5k - £2m -  reducing to 5.93%
    • 5.75% 5 Year Fixed, £899 product fee, 75% LTV, Loans £5k - £2m – reducing to 5.49%

    Semi exclusive remortgage products - reduced

    • 6.15% 2 Year Fixed, £799 product fee, 85% LTV, Loans £5k - £2m – reducing to 5.83%
    • 5.75% 5 Year Fixed, £799 product fee, 75% LTV, Loans £5k - £2m – reducing to 5.39%
    I am a mortgage broker. You should note that this site doesn't check my status as a Mortgage Adviser, so you need to take my word for it. This signature is here as I follow MSE's Mortgage Adviser Code of Conduct. Any posts on here are for information and discussion purposes only and shouldn't be seen as financial advice. Please do not send PMs asking for one-to-one-advice, or representation.
  • superstylin
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    Good news that the first bank has reacted to the calming market. 

    I'll be watching over the next few weeks to see if it's worth ditching the 5.14% 5 yr fix I recently set up with HSBC (existing customer). It's currently on hold until April so I've got time to see how other banks follow. 
    "a workman, even of the lowest and poorest order, if he is frugal and industrious, may enjoy a greater share of the necessaries and conveniences of life than it is possible for any savage to acquire."
  • Troy_af
    Troy_af Posts: 175 Forumite
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    I have a reserved 5.4% rate. Looking to complete on a purchase possibly December.

    Will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 6 weeks or so. What are people predictions on likely rates in 6 weeks? Under 5%? 
  • superstylin
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    @Troy_af

    The MSE analysis refers to a potential 0.5% reduction which would take both mine and your rates below 5%. It doesn't sound like much, but that'd save me £32 a month (or rather save me in interest as I would be reducing my mortgage term and keeping the same monthly payment if possible). 
    "a workman, even of the lowest and poorest order, if he is frugal and industrious, may enjoy a greater share of the necessaries and conveniences of life than it is possible for any savage to acquire."
  • CookieRose
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    Troy_af said:
    I have a reserved 5.4% rate. Looking to complete on a purchase possibly December.

    Will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 6 weeks or so. What are people predictions on likely rates in 6 weeks? Under 5%? 
    I have 5.39% / 5yr reserved until Feb 2023 for a remortgage.  Will also be watching with interest over the coming months!
  • kazzyb123
    kazzyb123 Posts: 118 Forumite
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    If you have a reserved rate does that mean you have been offered a mortgage at that rate but have 6 months to take up the offer?
    I have 9 months left on fixed deal currently 2.16% ERC is 950.
    meeting broker tomorrow and don’t know what to do.
    if we have to stay with NatWest it’s gone up to 6.04% and seems to be going up every few days!!!
    I really don’t know whether to wait or fix it’s a nightmare 

  • Ksw3
    Ksw3 Posts: 335 Forumite
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    @kingstreet what does semi-exclusive mean in this context?
  • K_S
    K_S Posts: 6,764 Forumite
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    edited 19 October 2022 at 4:46PM
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    Ksw3 said:
    @kingstreet what does semi-exclusive mean in this context?
    @ksw3 Generally speaking it refers to products that are available only through certain mortgage clubs (an intermediary between the lender and broker/network), certain mortgage networks and/or certain mortgage brokers.

    Here's an example of a semi-exclusive product distribution -



    In this case Barclays probably doesn't want to risk a flood of applications or unwanted attention due to cutting rates and has limited the release to certain trusted channels to limit volumes.

    I am a Mortgage Adviser - You should note that this site doesn't check my status as a mortgage adviser, so you need to take my word for it. This signature is here as I follow MSE's Mortgage Adviser Code of Conduct. Any posts on here are for information and discussion purposes only and shouldn't be seen as financial advice. 

    PLEASE DO NOT SEND PMs asking for one-to-one-advice, or representation.

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