Sun claims 4 month freeze on April cap levels.

MattMattMattUK

Malkytheheed said:

Assuming a fix until 2024, anyone estimate what, in real terms furlough and this are going to cost us? 

We are not furloughing people again.

This scheme anywhere from £100 billion to £300 billion depending on what happens to global pricing and where exactly the prices are frozen. 

Malkytheheed

MattMattMattUK said:

Malkytheheed said:

Assuming a fix until 2024, anyone estimate what, in real terms furlough and this are going to cost us? 

We are not furloughing people again.

This scheme anywhere from £100 billion to £300 billion depending on what happens to global pricing and where exactly the prices are frozen. 

I know we aren't furloughing again. My question is what is the combined cost of furlough (past) and a hypothetical freeze on energy prices till 2024, or such a time we are energy rich and not scarce. 

Basically I am trying to work out if I really want to remain living in the UK for the next 20 years of or more. Do I get out now? 

CSH1

jak22 said:

Hence the concern that if you've taken a fix this year - already paying above April cap and so looking to the promised £400 - you'll now possibly not get that help, still be paying more than everyone else, yet still be included in the 20 year repayment.

I haven't seen any reports that people on fixes aren't getting the £400, in fact apart from on here I haven't seen anything mentioned about fixed rates anywhere else.  If that was the case that people were excluded from the £400 it would be in some news reports surely.

facade

CSH1 said:

jak22 said:

Hence the concern that if you've taken a fix this year - already paying above April cap and so looking to the promised £400 - you'll now possibly not get that help, still be paying more than everyone else, yet still be included in the 20 year repayment.

I haven't seen any reports that people on fixes aren't getting the £400, in fact apart from on here I haven't seen anything mentioned about fixed rates anywhere else.  If that was the case that people were excluded from the £400 it would be in some news reports surely.

Current scaremongering is that the £400 will be snatched away and a lower cap maintained in its place, so people on a fix will lose the £400 they had budgeted for and pay well over the odds, or have to buy themselves out of their fix.

I'd wait and see what actually happens, I don't believe a word that comes out of the mouths of politicians and the press. They say one thing on Monday, the exact opposite on Tuesday, and change the subject to something else on Wednesday.

tghe-retford

Putin knows that borrowing and inflation are our weaknesses and he also knows that keeping the war going over a long period of time will cripple the west.

The only way to conquer that is to invest in energy security in the short and long term and allow us to go our own way. Yet I hear nothing so far other than more borrowing and more inflation spread over a generation.

[Deleted User]

tghe-retford said:

Putin knows that borrowing and inflation are our weaknesses and he also knows that keeping the war going over a long period of time will cripple the west.

The only way to conquer that is to invest in energy security in the short and long term and allow us to go our own way. Yet I hear nothing so far other than more borrowing and more inflation spread over a generation.

In the short term, I guess you missed the news about fracking and planning permission around wind? In the long term, I guess you missed the news about Sizewell? Maybe not enough but wrong to say energy security isn't being actively discussed and planned. And simply not possible by October.

Section62

[Deleted User] said:

tghe-retford said:

Putin knows that borrowing and inflation are our weaknesses and he also knows that keeping the war going over a long period of time will cripple the west.

The only way to conquer that is to invest in energy security in the short and long term and allow us to go our own way. Yet I hear nothing so far other than more borrowing and more inflation spread over a generation.

In the short term, I guess you missed the news about fracking and planning permission around wind? In the long term, I guess you missed the news about Sizewell? Maybe not enough but wrong to say energy security isn't being actively discussed and planned. And simply not possible by October.

Added to which, energy demand management is also part of the equation, which tghe-retford overlooks.

Whether that is delivered by rolling blackouts, or by TOU tariffs, will depend on the urgency of the need.

wrf12345

Sounds like the govn has been conned by the energy companies and consumers will be left with no choice but to stump up ridiculous standing charges and lose any option of fighting back against the energy companies (who are petrified that the "free" money going into people's bank accounts will not end up in their coffers)... not to mention that the govn spending more money will devalue Sterling and push up the costs of imports... and, er, energy (so the govn will have to spend more which will devalue Sterling which will...)! Then next year council tax will go up...

tghe-retford

Section62 said:

[Deleted User] said:

tghe-retford said:

Putin knows that borrowing and inflation are our weaknesses and he also knows that keeping the war going over a long period of time will cripple the west.

The only way to conquer that is to invest in energy security in the short and long term and allow us to go our own way. Yet I hear nothing so far other than more borrowing and more inflation spread over a generation.

In the short term, I guess you missed the news about fracking and planning permission around wind? In the long term, I guess you missed the news about Sizewell? Maybe not enough but wrong to say energy security isn't being actively discussed and planned. And simply not possible by October.

Added to which, energy demand management is also part of the equation, which tghe-retford overlooks.

Whether that is delivered by rolling blackouts, or by TOU tariffs, will depend on the urgency of the need.

Because every successful country runs rolling blackouts. Do that and Truss will lose the 2024 General Election.

MattMattMattUK

Malkytheheed said:

MattMattMattUK said:

Malkytheheed said:

Assuming a fix until 2024, anyone estimate what, in real terms furlough and this are going to cost us? 

We are not furloughing people again.

This scheme anywhere from £100 billion to £300 billion depending on what happens to global pricing and where exactly the prices are frozen. 

I know we aren't furloughing again. My question is what is the combined cost of furlough (past) and a hypothetical freeze on energy prices till 2024, or such a time we are energy rich and not scarce. 

Basically I am trying to work out if I really want to remain living in the UK for the next 20 years of or more. Do I get out now? 

On that basis CJRS, SEISS and the losses on the BBLS are somewhere between £310 billion and £420 billion, we will not know for several years until BBLS fully unwinds.

The reality is where else to go through, the USA is a mess unless you are a high wealth individual, Australia and New Zealand are somewhat viable, but both have inherent economic issues that are only going to become worse. Most of Europe is not in a great state, with Germany well placed economically, but heading for a huge recession due to previous reliance on Russia gas, although it starts from a low level of state borrowing and the electorate are generally much more reasonable. France has debt levels approaching crippling levels with huge structural issues in it's economy, Southern European states are economic basket cases. Scandinavia fares considerably better, with Norway probably the best option overall, though it is not easy to obtain residence and it has high taxes which most Brits seem to hate, there is also a language barrier, Norwegian is not the easiest to learn for most native English speakers. 

Pretty much every nation is going to have major issues over the next decade, on that basis the nation that one is already established is probably the best to stay in barring exceptional circumstances.