Loyal Octopus 12m Fixed

Justlittleoldmehere

Hi, could someone knowledgeable help me please- The lowest quote I get is £3,764.94 

Electricity:- daily sc - 41.98p
                     Unit rate - 67.89p/kwh

Gas :- daily Sc - 27.22P
           Unit rate - 18.81p/kwh

Is this something that I should do?

Thanks for your help 🙏 

Ryan_Holden

So I took the typical usage data previously supplied for gas (thank you again), adjusted it to my predicted usage over the year and worked out the Loyal Octopus Fix vs. the variable. For gas, it's a touch more expensive over the entire year (£25 ish) and much more expensive this winter.

However for electricity the fix more than pays for it with about £370 saved over the year. So for me, I'll take the fix endure a rough winter now with a bigger bill but make the savings on electricity over the rest of the term of the fix. It's also 0 exit fee so I can drop it if it goes awry.

I'd post my calcs but I'm too new haha.

[Deleted User]

Ryan_Holden said:

So I took the typical usage data previously supplied for gas (thank you again), adjusted it to my predicted usage over the year and worked out the Loyal Octopus Fix vs. the variable. For gas, it's a touch more expensive over the entire year (£25 ish) and much more expensive this winter.

However for electricity the fix more than pays for it with about £370 saved over the year. So for me, I'll take the fix endure a rough winter now with a bigger bill but make the savings on electricity over the rest of the term of the fix. It's also 0 exit fee so I can drop it if it goes awry.

I'd post my calcs but I'm too new haha.

Does it roughly match my tool?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zB4IrVDho6SBNk14B9GDx3QVT3nsm94Xwx2pTERl83A/

Ryan_Holden

[Deleted User] said:

Does it roughly match my tool?

Worryingly it does not. I get about £350 saving on electricity and £50 more on gas over the year. Your tool says it will be £120 more expensive over the year.

My cap predictions were based on increases on my original tariff. I better go check as I've fixed now.

Ryan_Holden

[Deleted User] said:

Does it roughly match my tool?

So your cap predictions are different to mine in terms of number values. All I have done is taken my price on my previous fix deal, apply the 3 monthly percentages to them and use those as values. I was getting £1.01 a unit of electricity in april but your tool shows only 90p. I presume your data is more up todate.

Still, with NS1 shut now and the markets opening tomorrow I Can't see it getting any better. Hopefully I've made the right call. 

I'd love to share my workings with you if you'd take a look?

[Deleted User]

Ryan_Holden said:

Deleted_User said:

Does it roughly match my tool?

So your cap predictions are different to mine in terms of number values. All I have done is taken my price on my previous fix deal, apply the 3 monthly percentages to them and use those as values. I was getting £1.01 a unit of electricity in april but your tool shows only 90p. I presume your data is more up todate.

Still, with NS1 shut now and the markets opening tomorrow I Can't see it getting any better. Hopefully I've made the right call. 

I'd love to share my workings with you if you'd take a look?

My capped values are from the Auxilione predictions - they look at the wholesale market and its trends to predict what OFGEM's calculation is likely to do - the media used to use similar predictions from another company for their percentages.  I've got the last four predictions in the tool for you to choose from.

The last four predictions for the Apr 2023 electricity unit cost have been 117.5p, 100.18p, 90.77p and 90.09p, so your 101p is right in the middle of that range - just shows how much variability there is, that's why there's no clear recommendations to fix or not.  The difference between the cheapest and most expensive of just those four predictions can be £1000 or more.

Ryan_Holden

[Deleted User] said:

The last four predictions for the Apr 2023 electricity unit cost have been 117.5p, 100.18p, 90.77p and 90.09p, so your 101p is right in the middle of that range - just shows how much variability there is, that's why there's no clear recommendations to fix or not.  The difference between the cheapest and most expensive of just those four predictions can be £1000 or more.

Dreadful isn't it! The way I am "hoping" (and I don't mean hoping in general, just relative to my decision) is that we see the cap predictions rise with the recent news on NS1 being closed indefinitely. At the moment my tracker, much more basic, says I'll save. Your tracker, much more complex, says I'll basically break even. I can live with that at the current state of affairs. 

If it does change for the better I Can drop Loyal Octopus 12M V1 August 2022 with 0 exit fee so it's not the end of the world.

Thanks for taking the time to help me with this.