£3549 average household yearly cost is wrong - More like ~£5000 if on SVT

uksitebuilder

Based on the forecasts and assuming people stay on SVT the average cost per annum is more likely to be ~£6000 from Oct 22 - Sep 23

Why ?

They change the price cap every 3 months

Oct = £3549
Jan = £5600
Apr = £7700 (if the papers are to be believed)
July = Who knows but say it stays the same at £7700

Add those up and divide by 4 gives an average of ~£6k per annum

Are my maths wrong?

[Deleted User]

You don't use the same amount of energy in each quarter.

And the £3549 amount is saying that "if the prices don't change, this is what it would be".  Anything past that would be just a guess.

uksitebuilder

Good answer, but, why the figure of £7700 is touted for April in that case?

[Deleted User]

Because that's the best guess at the moment at what a full year at the likely April cost would be.

uksitebuilder

I guess what I am trying to say is that the figure set for October onwards is misleading in as much as that is only covering 3 o the colder months.

If you take October and January and average those for the colder months, then a truer figure is circa £4500 per annum

pochase

You are not wrong, but it is extreme hard to calculate this.

Auxilione does it in their forecast, based on table what the average gas use and electricity use per month for the average 12000/2900 user is. A lot of averages and guesses.


Note that the average has the month of September still on the current "cheap" cap. They are updating the average annual cost with each new cap predictions.

[Deleted User]

Or if you fix at something similar to the October cap, then your annual will be similar to the October cap (adjusted for your usage compared to the OFGEM typical).

uksitebuilder

£5k sounds about right.  Shouldn't they be advertising this.

Therefore if at all possible, fixing now is the way to go surely?  at least for 12 months.

Mstty

You are wrong, but not wrong. But the good news is you have a good grasp on what is coming where as many dont.👍

[Deleted User]

Depends what you're offered for a fix.  It'll be more expensive than the October cap, so you have to use your judgement about what might happen next year and see if it's worth paying a little more per unit over this winter.

Section62

uksitebuilder said:

I guess what I am trying to say is that the figure set for October onwards is misleading in as much as that is only covering 3 o the colder months.

In the way the figure gets used, yes it is misleading.

But that is because Ofgem wanted one nice simple figure that everyone (lacking an inquiring mind) would be able to understand without having to do much thinking.