Personal Inflation rate

RG2015

callum9999 said:

RG2015 said:

Good morning @callum9999

Thank you for your post with the link to 

Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022

This makes very interesting reading. It is as you say rather semantic but one reference to rpi caught my attention.

Article | Released 31 July 2014 
This paper describes a method used to produce a modelled back series for CPI growth rates covering the period 1950 to1988. The difference between the RPI and the CPI is modelled back through time via using an ARIMA model and other available data. Series included in the approach include the 12 two-digit CPI categories and the all-items series.

I believe some of the back modelling may be an attempt to factor in cpi, which was not a metric in the early years of inflation (rpi) analysis.

Nevertheless I am indebted to you for providing clear evidence that the ONS do refer to inflation as an estimate.

On a final note though, I can assure you that any data that I have compiled for my “personal inflation calculation” is not an estimate, but actual recorded data.

You're welcome. Starting a new thread about this is quite weird but I'm curious to see what other people think!

Really? Recording the price of every single item - including each individual grocery item - you buy then comparing the price between then and now seems like a colossal amount of work.

Are you sure you haven't just recorded overall amounts and compared those figures?

1. Regarding my new thread. The topic is quite different. This one is about my personal inflation calculation. The other is about whether the ONS inflation figures are actual or estimated.

2. I am quite happy to define my personal supermarket inflation as total spend not itemised. This is very useful for me to plan my budget.

3. I have never said my analysis is broken down to the individual item level.

RG2015

callum9999 said:

RG2015 said:

Good morning @callum9999

Thank you for your post with the link to 

Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022

This makes very interesting reading. It is as you say rather semantic but one reference to rpi caught my attention.

Article | Released 31 July 2014 
This paper describes a method used to produce a modelled back series for CPI growth rates covering the period 1950 to1988. The difference between the RPI and the CPI is modelled back through time via using an ARIMA model and other available data. Series included in the approach include the 12 two-digit CPI categories and the all-items series.

I believe some of the back modelling may be an attempt to factor in cpi, which was not a metric in the early years of inflation (rpi) analysis.

Nevertheless I am indebted to you for providing clear evidence that the ONS do refer to inflation as an estimate.

On a final note though, I can assure you that any data that I have compiled for my “personal inflation calculation” is not an estimate, but actual recorded data.

You're welcome. Starting a new thread about this is quite weird but I'm curious to see what other people think!

Really? Recording the price of every single item - including each individual grocery item - you buy then comparing the price between then and now seems like a colossal amount of work.

Are you sure you haven't just recorded overall amounts and compared those figures?

It looks like the "jury" is leaning in your direction.

I don't like losing but if I have learned something new then I am a wiser man for it.

callum9999

RG2015 said:

callum9999 said:

RG2015 said:

Good morning @callum9999

Thank you for your post with the link to 

Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022

This makes very interesting reading. It is as you say rather semantic but one reference to rpi caught my attention.

Article | Released 31 July 2014 
This paper describes a method used to produce a modelled back series for CPI growth rates covering the period 1950 to1988. The difference between the RPI and the CPI is modelled back through time via using an ARIMA model and other available data. Series included in the approach include the 12 two-digit CPI categories and the all-items series.

I believe some of the back modelling may be an attempt to factor in cpi, which was not a metric in the early years of inflation (rpi) analysis.

Nevertheless I am indebted to you for providing clear evidence that the ONS do refer to inflation as an estimate.

On a final note though, I can assure you that any data that I have compiled for my “personal inflation calculation” is not an estimate, but actual recorded data.

You're welcome. Starting a new thread about this is quite weird but I'm curious to see what other people think!

Really? Recording the price of every single item - including each individual grocery item - you buy then comparing the price between then and now seems like a colossal amount of work.

Are you sure you haven't just recorded overall amounts and compared those figures?

It looks like the "jury" is leaning in your direction.

I don't like losing but if I have learned something new then I am a wiser man for it.

Good. I'm glad we can move past that now as it was becoming a very frustrating discussion!

I don't think your underlying knowledge was wrong so I wouldn't worry about "losing", you were just misunderstanding the word "estimate" and thinking calling the figures estimates mean they're unreliable/guesswork etc. Much like people often misunderstand the scientific meaning of the word "theory".