Personal Inflation rate

callum9999

sevenhills said:

callum9999 said

No, I'm suggesting that if you don't understand a topic you should discuss it without making claims about it. This is something I see in virtually every single discussion on any subject whatsoever nowadays and it frustrates me to no end. You however do seem to redeem yourself by being willing to learn when challenged, which makes you better than most!

If we just had experts starting discussions, very few would be started.

Is there a reason why you deleted the line in the middle of that passage that specifically states I do not expect anyone to be an expert? You don't come across as someone who does this, but it looks like you're deliberately changing the quote to make it look like I'm saying something I didn't... 

Just to clarify, I do not think that only experts should start discussions (I'm certainly not an expert myself!) and did not say they should. 

RG2015

sevenhills said:

RG2015 said:

The reported ONS inflation figures are actual figures based upon their calculation rules. There is no reason to doubt them.

I have shared my actual figures so why would you suggest that they are any less accurate than government figures. 

So you believe your own inflation rate of 4.9% is correct and the ONS figure of CPI inflation is correct too.
But you disregard RPI inflation?

1. My inflation figure is 100% correct. You may object to me choosing to ignore variations in my spending patterns, but it is my choice.

I believe that I am better served by my own specific data than utilising a generalised average. I do not eschew ONS inflation but I recognise its limitations.

2. Where do you get the idea that I disregard RPI inflation?

sevenhills

callum9999 said:

Is there a reason why you deleted the line in the middle of that passage that specifically states I do not expect anyone to be an expert?

I cannot delete what u wrote, it's still there in your post. But what I quoted was more relevant to my answer.

RG2015

callum9999 said:

RG2015 said:

sevenhills said:

RG2015 said:

If you look back a couple of pages to my calculations, you will see my calculated rate is 4.9%

Although I don't trust the government, I believe their estimates of inflation are more accurate than yours.

Are you talking about government/BoE estimates for future inflation? An estimate can never be accurate so I don’t see this as an issue.

The reported ONS inflation figures are actual figures based upon their calculation rules. There is no reason to doubt them.

I have shared my actual figures so why would you suggest that they are any less accurate than government figures. 

No, they're talking about current inflation estimates. They are all estimates because the ONS are not tracking the sale of every single item in every single store across the entire country, it's sampled.
.
The ONS track the price changes of individual items, you're tracked how much you've spent on general categories. I see how calling that your "personal inflation" can be confusing in the context of their calculated national inflation, but, assuming you haven't purchased the exact same items this year as you did last year (i.e. you eat/drink/wear the exact same stuff every single day and are not influenced whatsoever by special offers etc.), you're measuring a different thing to them. 

I don't think that when the ONS report inflation they ever refer to it as an estimate.

From their website.

Inflation and price indices

The rate of inflation is the change in prices for goods and services over time. Measures of inflation and prices include consumer price inflation, producer price inflation and the House Price Index.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 10.1% in the 12 months to July 2022, up from 9.4% in June.

I am happy to be corrected if you can show me where the ONS refer to their historical inflation figures as estimates.

RG2015

callum9999 said:

RG2015 said:

callum9999 said:

O RG2015 said:

For completeness, I have done the detailed ONS personal calculator and mine comes out at 11.7% compared with CPIH (their choice of comparator) of 8.8%.

This is comparing the years ending July 21 and July 22. But it is based upon a generalised basket of goods in each category where I spend, weighted by my average spend in each category. There are just too many averages for me.

  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/howisinflationaffectingyourhouseholdcosts/2022-03-23

Regarding the perception of the ONS inflation figure applying to everyone, I will acknowledge that it is just my perception.

However, I can only report what I think and until I examined the issue more closely, I believed that my personal finances would be subject to the reported inflation figure.

I know now that my personal inflation is quite different anything the ONS is reporting.

You're correct that you can only "report what you think", but I'm afraid you thought that because of ignorance and not because the ONS or "the media" were misleading you. (Please don't take that as an insult, everyone - me definitely included - is ignorant about something - just try to be more aware of any shortfall in your knowledge before sharing it).

I do not take it as an insult, although I do find you comment condescending. Are you suggesting that I should not post unless I make myself fully aware of my chosen topic? I do not post as an expert, merely a member of the public.

Forums are for open discussions. Then again , I was criticised a few years ago for slapdash posting.

But more than this, your view that the average person fully understands the nature of inflation does surprise me.

Are you confusing my suggestion that the average person knows inflation figures are a generalised average with the idea that they're all inflation experts? Knowing it's a generalised average is an incredibly basic piece of information that I'd even expect young children to understand (I even vaguely remember touching upon this in primary school maths).

I disagree.

RG2015

Perhaps slightly off topic.

UK inflation could hit 18% next year on rising energy bills, experts warn

By Jennifer Meierhans & Michael Race
Business reporters, BBC News

• Published
  4 hours ago

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62634795

callum9999

sevenhills said:

callum9999 said:

Is there a reason why you deleted the line in the middle of that passage that specifically states I do not expect anyone to be an expert?

I cannot delete what u wrote, it's still there in your post. But what I quoted was more relevant to my answer.

You deleted the line where I specifically said "I don't expect you to be an expert", then wrote a response to it as if I had said the exact opposite. I tried to give you the benefit of the doubt but it was apparently deliberate so I cannot have an honest discussion with you. Have a good night.

callum9999

RG2015 said:

callum9999 said:

RG2015 said:

sevenhills said:

RG2015 said:

If you look back a couple of pages to my calculations, you will see my calculated rate is 4.9%

Although I don't trust the government, I believe their estimates of inflation are more accurate than yours.

Are you talking about government/BoE estimates for future inflation? An estimate can never be accurate so I don’t see this as an issue.

The reported ONS inflation figures are actual figures based upon their calculation rules. There is no reason to doubt them.

I have shared my actual figures so why would you suggest that they are any less accurate than government figures. 

No, they're talking about current inflation estimates. They are all estimates because the ONS are not tracking the sale of every single item in every single store across the entire country, it's sampled.
.
The ONS track the price changes of individual items, you're tracked how much you've spent on general categories. I see how calling that your "personal inflation" can be confusing in the context of their calculated national inflation, but, assuming you haven't purchased the exact same items this year as you did last year (i.e. you eat/drink/wear the exact same stuff every single day and are not influenced whatsoever by special offers etc.), you're measuring a different thing to them. 

I don't think that when the ONS report inflation they ever refer to it as an estimate.

From their website.

Inflation and price indices

The rate of inflation is the change in prices for goods and services over time. Measures of inflation and prices include consumer price inflation, producer price inflation and the House Price Index.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 10.1% in the 12 months to July 2022, up from 9.4% in June.

I am happy to be corrected if you can show me where the ONS refer to their historical inflation figures as estimates.

Did you even try to look? Googling "ONS inflation estimate" brings up 2 million results.... Here's one: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/consumerpriceinflationhistoricalestimatesandrecenttrendsuk/1950to2022

Though it's rather semantic. I'm sure you're well aware that the inflation statistics are based on a tiny sample of UK economic activity - what would you can an extrapolation of that if not an estimate? 

RG2015

Good morning @callum9999

Thank you for your post with the link to 

Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022

This makes very interesting reading. It is as you say rather semantic but one reference to rpi caught my attention.

Article | Released 31 July 2014 
This paper describes a method used to produce a modelled back series for CPI growth rates covering the period 1950 to1988. The difference between the RPI and the CPI is modelled back through time via using an ARIMA model and other available data. Series included in the approach include the 12 two-digit CPI categories and the all-items series.

I believe some of the back modelling may be an attempt to factor in cpi, which was not a metric in the early years of inflation (rpi) analysis.

Nevertheless I am indebted to you for providing clear evidence that the ONS do refer to inflation as an estimate.

On a final note though, I can assure you that any data that I have compiled for my “personal inflation calculation” is not an estimate, but actual recorded data.

callum9999

RG2015 said:

Good morning @callum9999

Thank you for your post with the link to 

Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022

This makes very interesting reading. It is as you say rather semantic but one reference to rpi caught my attention.

Article | Released 31 July 2014 
This paper describes a method used to produce a modelled back series for CPI growth rates covering the period 1950 to1988. The difference between the RPI and the CPI is modelled back through time via using an ARIMA model and other available data. Series included in the approach include the 12 two-digit CPI categories and the all-items series.

I believe some of the back modelling may be an attempt to factor in cpi, which was not a metric in the early years of inflation (rpi) analysis.

Nevertheless I am indebted to you for providing clear evidence that the ONS do refer to inflation as an estimate.

On a final note though, I can assure you that any data that I have compiled for my “personal inflation calculation” is not an estimate, but actual recorded data.

You're welcome. Starting a new thread about this is quite weird but I'm curious to see what other people think!

Really? Recording the price of every single item - including each individual grocery item - you buy then comparing the price between then and now seems like a colossal amount of work.

Are you sure you haven't just recorded overall amounts and compared those figures?