Octopus Variable or fix now?

adidas

I'm keen to know as well, if we switch to the 12m fixed then it's £517/month

bristolleedsfan

aallank said:

Phlik said:

Personally I'd be opting for the tracker and agile tariffs before they're changed again.

Thank you, so if I'm with Octopus do you mean the 12m fixed tariff?

Would need to contact them asap to change tariff, electricity maximum product capped rate 55p kWh, gas maximum product capped rate 16pkwh fixed term 12 months  https://octopus.energy/tracker/

Worth asking them if they can delay tariff change start date for a month

Phlik

aallank said:

Phlik said:

Personally I'd be opting for the tracker and agile tariffs before they're changed again.

Thank you, so if I'm with Octopus do you mean the 12m fixed tariff?

No they're not fixed tariffs they're trackers but the gas tracker has a capped rate of 16ppkWh for a year and doesn't need a smart meter. For electricity then it's their agile tariff (smart meter needed), again it's not fixed but capped at a maximum of 55ppkWh for a year. They aren't well publicised tariffs so you may need to phone or email them to switch over.

Bristol Leeds fan has a link in his reply above this one.

bristolleedsfan

Octopus Agile electricity only sign up via link, then have 28 days to confirm T+C during which time they will honour 55p kWh cap

https://octopus.energy/agile/

Octopus tracker can be any combination of fuel

Alnat1

Electricity has a Tracker tariff too, capped at 55p/kWh (same price as Agile)

With the Tracker tariffs prices are set for the whole day (prices are published the previous evening) and will not be above the cap but could be lower. You agree to get a smart meter fitted but it's not required to go on the tariff.

With Agile (electric only) the price can change every 30 minutes (prices are published around 4pm previous evening) they will not go over the cap but certain 30 minute time slots could be lower. You need a stable smart meter that Octopus can get 30 minute reads from.

aallank

I don't have a smart meter and really don't want one.

Does this mean I can't get the tracker tariff?
I'm so confused.
My predicted bill is almost £500 per month. I'm only in a small bungalow!

Alnat1

If your dislike of smart meters is so huge that you'd rather pay higher rates for your electricity and gas than have one fitted then that's your choice.

Spoonie_Turtle

aallank said:

I don't have a smart meter and really don't want one.

Does this mean I can't get the tracker tariff?
I'm so confused.
My predicted bill is almost £500 per month. I'm only in a small bungalow!

We don't either and nor do we want one, not really - we've had meter trouble in the past and our current single rate meter just displays the reading, simple, easy, no buttons to press, no chance of getting it wrong, and it works properly.  We love it, don't want to change.

We first enquired about Tracker back when the electricity cap was 40p (Agile was 35p) and were told they would roll them out this summer to Tracker customers who didn't already have one.  Then the predictions kept getting worse and worse, Octopus' offered fixes went from 41p to 50+, then 60+ … and we realised either we relented and accepted the possibility of a smart meter, or had to pay through the nose for the SVT from January.

We've been on Tracker for less than a week now so if they have indeed started a rollout, we'll be a way down the list.  But crucially, the potential for things to go wrong with a smart meter was outweighed - for us - by the potential cost of having to pay full SVT rates which look likely to be nightmarish from January.  That's basically the decision you have to make too.

[The T&Cs of Tracker are that you accept one being fitted "eventually" or them reserving the right to take you off the tariff (and presumably onto the standard variable).]

deutsch

I'm on a price promise tariff until Oct 2023 to guarantee less than £50 the cap (which isn't much).

If I go to change tariff options on the Octopus website, I have an option that estimate bills me at £3164.82 (12M fixed) for the year (not a price promise which tracks). Looking at what MSE say for current / predictions:

From Oct 22 it's 80% up (static)
From Jan 23 it's 52% up (prediction)
From Apr 23 it's 23% up (prediction)
From Jul 23 it's 11% down (prediction)

Since the typical estimated annual usage will go from £1971 to £3549 in Oct 22, then £5387 to £6616 to £5897 for each quarter, what is missing is that you need to calculate the avergage if my maths is correct for the true annual and assuming the predictions are right and nothing changes.

Oct 22 = (Annual x 1.8) x 0.25
Jan 23 = (Annual x 1.52) x 0.25
Apr 23 = (Annual x 1.23) x 0.25
Jul 23 = (Annual / 1.11) x 0.25
If you sum up the quarters, you get the total based on the changes.

£887.25 + £1346.75 + £1654 + £1474.25 = £5362.25 when averaged out.

I know they are predictions and no one knows the future, but say you were paying an estimate £1971 on 30/09/22 and then the price went up the day after, a true % increase is 272% since £1971 jumps to £5362.25.

So is fixing a good idea? I think so if you can find a deal now.
If I accept Octopus' 12 Month fix - a total of £3164.82, I think I'll be saving.

If I stay on the price promise and the minimal is £50 less than the cap, by tracking the quarterly review and making no changes, I will pay more. This is just a one year review..

£1971 is the typical usage, my usage is 87% of this at £1706.
100% of £3164.82 would be £3637 so I would be paying slightly more than £3549 (or £3499 if I minus £50) but really saving in the long term by hiding away from the Jan 23 and Apr 23 rise predictions.

The government help apparently was based off Oct 22 being 40% not 80%! I can't see the war in Ukraine stopping in the next year or so (whether this is the true reason or not for rises).

Can someone go through my maths? Would MSE average out like me? Please rip my maths apart if needs be.

[Deleted User]

You've assumed using exactly the same amount of energy in each quarter, which isn't true.

And you also seem to be assuming that the price cap is the actual total cost you will be charged.  You're not doing that are you?