How to calculate projected energy costs based on last years payments?

jimjames

pochase said:

jimjames said:

On a very basic level the price cap pre Oct last year was around £1200 and this year after Oct is predicted to be £3600 or so. Effectively if you multiply by 3 it will give a very rough idea.

Caveat - also depends on usage, standing charges will make up a higher proportion of bill if use is under the average. Assumes no fixed tariff was used and that use was around the amount of price cap. But probably works as a very rough & ready calc. 

Factor 3 is far to high. The real factor I calculated from the real figures is 2.82, and does not take into account that the gas increases are far higher than electricity, a factor 2.5 maybe even slightly less is much nearer to reality.

I agree but I'd suggest that 2.82 and 3 are close enough for the purposes of the OP wanting a rough and ready number for someone not wanting to do the maths. The numbers will be higher but I think it's probably better to err on side of being slightly higher and having spare money allocated than low and not enough

pochase

I just realised the OP is asking also for gas.

While electricity will be more like 2.3 gas will be much more than the average 2.82. So to use the easy factor 3 might not be a bad idea. It all depends on the split of usage between gas and electricity.

So if somebody just wants an idea the factor 3 should be fine. If somebody really wants a forecast as good as possible they will need to do the calculations as described. And even that does not take into account how good the predictions are, or if we get another mild winter, an average or a very cold one. Or if somebody has tried to reduce energy use over the last months.

OP if you want to use the factor 3, you will need to use 3.5 from January to March to cater for the January cap predictions.