How to calculate projected energy costs based on last years payments?

[Deleted User]

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[Deleted User]

Your most sensible starting point would be to use the widely published predicted costs to the end of next year, by quarter, assuming you're not on a fixed tariff.

You could then flex those for different scenarios or if you think prices will go in a different direction.

Mstty

You have to list your presumptions for the formula first before diving to the end.

1) targeted to low income families
2) presume on pre payment meters with no DD discount?
3) presume on the SVT

If so a quick Google for the Ofgem price cap prices is the easy way to start.

Start small build it up from there.

[Deleted User]

JSpicoli said:

For example: if someone spent £6 per week on electricity in the third week of October 2021, how much would they pay in the third week of October 2022? The same question for gas.

Hi,

you would need to know the number of units used in that week, unit price and standing charge.

Units used x unit price + 7 x standing charge + 5% vat if not already included in prices.

Then use predicted future prices.

pochase

Of course there are SVT for prepayment meters. The SVT is the standard tariff, as there are not many on prepaid and fixed tariff.

What you need to know is how many KWh you used, You seem to have logged the more irrelevant payments instead of usage, but this can be rectified.

Check what the unit rate was at the time you topped up the meter. If you were on SVT and you want to start at October, it will only be the October to March unit rates, plus todays valid from April to end of September. If you want to start today you also need the rates for last year April to Septembera.

First calculate how many days between the top ups. Multiply the standing charge with the days. Deduct the amount you got from your top up and you get what was left for purchasing energy (KWh)

Divide your £ amount by this rates and you have how many KWh you got for the top up. 

Once you have done this multiply the KWh by the predicted unit prices and you know the purchase price for the energy. Now multiply the days between top ups you calculated earlier and multiply with todays standing charge. Add the two amounts together and you know what it will cost you to buy the same amount of energy and standing charge as last year now.

There is no just one number that you can use if you want an reliable result. If you just want an idea, the cap in October was £1277, the predicted one for this October is £3582. That is an increase of 180%. So you would multiply with by your amount by 2.82. But this does not take into account that the increase for gas was much higher than for gas and standing charge development especially for low users. I would not take this approach, the result is scarier than reality. And even this number will change in January, April and so on.

Here is the guesstimated forecast for the next year. The further off the dates the more unsure the predictions are.

pochase

Here is how this could look for you. Quite easy once you have collected the required information for the columns marked yellow.



The rate information is not yours, they are educated guesstimates. You still can see  that here the cost is more like factor 2.2 than the averaged cap increase of 2.82. And don't forget numbers will change for January onwards.

jimjames

On a very basic level the price cap pre Oct last year was around £1200 and this year after Oct is predicted to be £3600 or so. Effectively if you multiply by 3 it will give a very rough idea.

Caveat - also depends on usage, standing charges will make up a higher proportion of bill if use is under the average. Assumes no fixed tariff was used and that use was around the amount of price cap. But probably works as a very rough & ready calc. 

Mstty

JSpicoli said:

Yes, this is for people on low income.
Yes, this is for prepayment meters.
There are no SVTs for people on prepayment meters.

Yes, I've already googled different price caps but it's still too confusing for me to come up with a simple formula to extrapolate based only previous payment.

"If I put £7 per week for 'leccy in my prepayment meter on for the third week of October, how much will I have to put into the prepayment meter this upcoming third week of October for the same 'leccy usage?"

I'm looking for a multiplier to generate that extrapolation.

You probably should not put this together if you don't know the basics that those on prepayment will be on the SVT albeit without DD discount.

It will be misleading if you do not know the basic facts.

k_man

Birmingham Mail have this covered:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/energy-bill-calculator-shows-exactly-24735481


Oh wait.... 

Energy bill calculator shows exactly how much yours will rise this winter

it will then reveal an estimate of what you could pay from October 1 and then by January 2023.
The calculation is based on a prediction therefore is a rough guide.

Methinks someone needs to check the definition of exactly...

pochase

The DD discount does not come into play here. Most prepaid rates are slightly cheaper than direct debit already.

The higher cost comes almost entirely from higher standing charges.

pochase

jimjames said:

On a very basic level the price cap pre Oct last year was around £1200 and this year after Oct is predicted to be £3600 or so. Effectively if you multiply by 3 it will give a very rough idea.

Caveat - also depends on usage, standing charges will make up a higher proportion of bill if use is under the average. Assumes no fixed tariff was used and that use was around the amount of price cap. But probably works as a very rough & ready calc. 

Factor 3 is far to high. The real factor I calculated from the real figures is 2.82, and does not take into account that the gas increases are far higher than electricity, a factor 2.5 maybe even slightly less is much nearer to reality.