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Is it conservative to assume a 5% annual return on a S&S LISA - Vanguard 100
Comments
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My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
0 -
Well that is my point entirely. You are not going to be in control of the timing of your emergencies, and your emergency selling could span the whole spectrum of possible outcomes, from selling for a good price, right through selling for a substantial loss, or being unable to get any orders executed (as happens from time to time during periods of panic in the markets). Funds have their issues too, and are sometimes gated or suspended from trading. Investing is a long term activity, so most of us do not need to access our investments at a particular point in time. Money to cover emergencies would generally be placed somewhere that it is more readily accessible and not at risk.RobHT said:
My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
0 -
This is your second obvious message.masonic said:
Well that is my point entirely. You are not going to be in control of the timing of your emergencies, and your emergency selling could span the whole spectrum of possible outcomes, from selling for a good price, right through selling for a substantial loss, or being unable to get any orders executed (as happens from time to time during periods of panic in the markets). Funds have their issues too, and are sometimes gated or suspended from trading. Investing is a long term activity, so most of us do not need to access our investments at a particular point in time. Money to cover emergencies would generally be placed somewhere that it is more readily accessible and not at risk.RobHT said:
My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
Yes, we are on the same page on these things, my concerns about this thread were others.
Btw, funds don't go easily busted, and in any case, it's so difficult to lose all the money.
Probably you are referring to ETFs or weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends...0 -
RobHT said:
This is your second obvious message.masonic said:
Well that is my point entirely. You are not going to be in control of the timing of your emergencies, and your emergency selling could span the whole spectrum of possible outcomes, from selling for a good price, right through selling for a substantial loss, or being unable to get any orders executed (as happens from time to time during periods of panic in the markets). Funds have their issues too, and are sometimes gated or suspended from trading. Investing is a long term activity, so most of us do not need to access our investments at a particular point in time. Money to cover emergencies would generally be placed somewhere that it is more readily accessible and not at risk.RobHT said:
My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
Yes, we are on the same page on these things, my concerns about this thread were others.Apologies for stating the obvious, but in this case the obvious contradicted your argument that you can always cash out of investments whenever you want to.
At the risk of stating the obvious again, when a fund is suspended or gated, the fund does not go bust and investors don't lose all of their money. They simply cannot sell their holdings until the suspension or gating is lifted, which could be after a number of days or weeks. This is in reference to open ended funds, not ETFs (although those could in theory be temporarily suspended from the stockmarket) or "weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends".RobHT said:Btw, funds don't go easily busted, and in any case, it's so difficult to lose all the money.Probably you are referring to ETFs or weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends...2 -
My friend, the impossible can always happen and you can't stop it, it will always happen in the worst moment and with the worst magnitude.masonic said:RobHT said:
This is your second obvious message.masonic said:
Well that is my point entirely. You are not going to be in control of the timing of your emergencies, and your emergency selling could span the whole spectrum of possible outcomes, from selling for a good price, right through selling for a substantial loss, or being unable to get any orders executed (as happens from time to time during periods of panic in the markets). Funds have their issues too, and are sometimes gated or suspended from trading. Investing is a long term activity, so most of us do not need to access our investments at a particular point in time. Money to cover emergencies would generally be placed somewhere that it is more readily accessible and not at risk.RobHT said:
My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
Yes, we are on the same page on these things, my concerns about this thread were others.Apologies for stating the obvious, but in this case the obvious contradicted your argument that you can always cash out of investments whenever you want to.
At the risk of stating the obvious again, when a fund is suspended or gated, the fund does not go bust and investors don't lose all of their money. They simply cannot sell their holdings until the suspension or gating is lifted, which could be after a number of days or weeks. This is in reference to open ended funds, not ETFs (although those could in theory be temporarily suspended from the stockmarket) or "weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends".RobHT said:Btw, funds don't go easily busted, and in any case, it's so difficult to lose all the money.Probably you are referring to ETFs or weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends...
So, if we need to consider every case, why we don't consider the next catastrophic war or nuclear contamination on a large scale? (both militar and from nuclear plants)
Let's talk with only Apples on the table, that's my point
.
Yes, even if the fund doesn't get halted for a while, selling may take also one week, but again, we already know these things, but you can still sell and take out a nice portion of money for emergencies, most probably with a little loss or huge loss but with much less probability.
Emergency for me is when I have an empty bank account and no income.0 -
RobHT said:
My friend, the impossible can always happen and you can't stop it, it will always happen in the worst moment and with the worst magnitude.masonic said:RobHT said:
This is your second obvious message.masonic said:
Well that is my point entirely. You are not going to be in control of the timing of your emergencies, and your emergency selling could span the whole spectrum of possible outcomes, from selling for a good price, right through selling for a substantial loss, or being unable to get any orders executed (as happens from time to time during periods of panic in the markets). Funds have their issues too, and are sometimes gated or suspended from trading. Investing is a long term activity, so most of us do not need to access our investments at a particular point in time. Money to cover emergencies would generally be placed somewhere that it is more readily accessible and not at risk.RobHT said:
My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
Yes, we are on the same page on these things, my concerns about this thread were others.Apologies for stating the obvious, but in this case the obvious contradicted your argument that you can always cash out of investments whenever you want to.
At the risk of stating the obvious again, when a fund is suspended or gated, the fund does not go bust and investors don't lose all of their money. They simply cannot sell their holdings until the suspension or gating is lifted, which could be after a number of days or weeks. This is in reference to open ended funds, not ETFs (although those could in theory be temporarily suspended from the stockmarket) or "weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends".RobHT said:Btw, funds don't go easily busted, and in any case, it's so difficult to lose all the money.Probably you are referring to ETFs or weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends...
So, if we need to consider every case, why we don't consider the next catastrophic war or nuclear contamination on a large scale? (both militar and from nuclear plants)
Let's talk with only Apples on the table, that's my point
.
Yes, even if the fund doesn't get halted for a while, selling may take also one week, but again, we already know these things, but you can still sell and take out a nice portion of money for emergencies, most probably with a little loss or huge loss but with much less probability.
Emergency for me is when I have an empty bank account and no income.There's no point worrying about risks that you cannot mitigate. War and nuclear events are not in my circle of concern. An empty bank account and no money coming in is something I can take steps to avoid, as is being forced to sell investments at an inopportune time.Coming back to the matter at hand, you've mentioned two types of asset that "You can also cash out at any time, think about the most IMPORTANT BENEFIT": crypto and growth stocks. I must admit, I don't even fully understand how we got to here from there, but I'm just going to take your most recent post as acknowledgement that you were using some poetic licence with "at any time". Presumably if your crypto was down 80% from its peak, your stock portfolio would be sufficiently diversified that you could find something you could sell without incurring a similar sized loss, you'd be ok with any loss you did suffer, and you'd have enough cash to bridge the gap if it did take time to execute your trade, have it settle, and get it out to your bank account.All of this was in comparison with a LISA, which... you can cash out at any time for a small net loss.1 -
My portfolio is diversified, I have exp growth stocks but not only those, no investor invests only in risky and turbolent markets/stocks.masonic said:RobHT said:
My friend, the impossible can always happen and you can't stop it, it will always happen in the worst moment and with the worst magnitude.masonic said:RobHT said:
This is your second obvious message.masonic said:
Well that is my point entirely. You are not going to be in control of the timing of your emergencies, and your emergency selling could span the whole spectrum of possible outcomes, from selling for a good price, right through selling for a substantial loss, or being unable to get any orders executed (as happens from time to time during periods of panic in the markets). Funds have their issues too, and are sometimes gated or suspended from trading. Investing is a long term activity, so most of us do not need to access our investments at a particular point in time. Money to cover emergencies would generally be placed somewhere that it is more readily accessible and not at risk.RobHT said:
My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
Yes, we are on the same page on these things, my concerns about this thread were others.Apologies for stating the obvious, but in this case the obvious contradicted your argument that you can always cash out of investments whenever you want to.
At the risk of stating the obvious again, when a fund is suspended or gated, the fund does not go bust and investors don't lose all of their money. They simply cannot sell their holdings until the suspension or gating is lifted, which could be after a number of days or weeks. This is in reference to open ended funds, not ETFs (although those could in theory be temporarily suspended from the stockmarket) or "weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends".RobHT said:Btw, funds don't go easily busted, and in any case, it's so difficult to lose all the money.Probably you are referring to ETFs or weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends...
So, if we need to consider every case, why we don't consider the next catastrophic war or nuclear contamination on a large scale? (both militar and from nuclear plants)
Let's talk with only Apples on the table, that's my point
.
Yes, even if the fund doesn't get halted for a while, selling may take also one week, but again, we already know these things, but you can still sell and take out a nice portion of money for emergencies, most probably with a little loss or huge loss but with much less probability.
Emergency for me is when I have an empty bank account and no income.There's no point worrying about risks that you cannot mitigate. War and nuclear events are not in my circle of concern. An empty bank account and no money coming in is something I can take steps to avoid, as is being forced to sell investments at an inopportune time.Coming back to the matter at hand, you've mentioned two types of asset that "You can also cash out at any time, think about the most IMPORTANT BENEFIT": crypto and growth stocks. I must admit, I don't even fully understand how we got to here from there, but I'm just going to take your most recent post as acknowledgement that you were using some poetic licence with "at any time". Presumably if your crypto was down 80% from its peak, your stock portfolio would be sufficiently diversified that you could find something you could sell without incurring a similar sized loss, you'd be ok with any loss you did suffer, and you'd have enough cash to bridge the gap if it did take time to execute your trade, have it settle, and get it out to your bank account.All of this was in comparison with a LISA, which... you can cash out at any time for a small net loss.
But there's been a time where I relied only on my cash (just waiting the time to rebalance), therefore, that was my emergency fund, the rest were only exp growth stocks and cryptos (very little amount), this was an exceptional situation and I made it in a way that the cash was enough for emergencies, luckily I hadn't any problem but as I said, if you meet a very bad situation, nothing will save you.
If you cash out from a LISA without following the rules for cash out (like to buy the first house) I think you lose a lot
. 0 -
It is not just 'risky and turbolent stock' that experience the same impact.
Just anecdotally, if you look back at the February 2020 sell-off, we all experienced liquidity issues. I tend to invest in exchange traded funds (ETFs and ITs), and ones which are common and relatively liquid, e.g. global ETF etc. At the time of the sell off I could not get prices to trade from 3 of my 4 brokers. And, I think the fourth one was limiting the size of trades.
How you do not think crypto cannot be affected in a like for like manner is a little beyond me TBH. Sometimes things just do not go the way we think they should.Personal Responsibility - Sad but True
Sometimes.... I am like a dog with a bone1 -
RobHT said:
My portfolio is diversified, I have exp growth stocks but not only those, no investor invests only in risky and turbolent markets/stocks.masonic said:RobHT said:
My friend, the impossible can always happen and you can't stop it, it will always happen in the worst moment and with the worst magnitude.masonic said:RobHT said:
This is your second obvious message.masonic said:
Well that is my point entirely. You are not going to be in control of the timing of your emergencies, and your emergency selling could span the whole spectrum of possible outcomes, from selling for a good price, right through selling for a substantial loss, or being unable to get any orders executed (as happens from time to time during periods of panic in the markets). Funds have their issues too, and are sometimes gated or suspended from trading. Investing is a long term activity, so most of us do not need to access our investments at a particular point in time. Money to cover emergencies would generally be placed somewhere that it is more readily accessible and not at risk.RobHT said:
My sentence was simplified, I know that I could sell for a loss! But the point of cashing out is not to cash out all, but cash out to bear the emergencies...masonic said:
When things are good, then there's plenty of liquidity. When everyone wants to jump ship, there isn't. You can't make the assumption that you'll be able to cash out at any time, if any time includes times when everyone else is of a like mind, or, as you say, there is no market on which to sell. There's also selling at a reasonable price, and selling for whatever you can get. In short, you can't rely on being able to cash out this sort of investment at any time by any reasonable definition of 'cash out' and 'any time'.RobHT said:The market is always liquid, unless there is a insolvency process or similar behind, at that time it's too late, the big guys already jumped off the boat.
Also in the case of penny stocks there is enough liquidity, but it's important to consider that it's much less liquid than Nasdaq, therefore, you won't be able to sell a huge amount of shares in a single transaction, but if your broker is decent enough, it will manage that for you also for days ahead, not bad ah.
No, I'm not an edge fund, I can easily cash out in most of my stocks without concerns, and if this concerns you too much, then buy funds, keeping in mind the objectives though
.
Yes, we are on the same page on these things, my concerns about this thread were others.Apologies for stating the obvious, but in this case the obvious contradicted your argument that you can always cash out of investments whenever you want to.
At the risk of stating the obvious again, when a fund is suspended or gated, the fund does not go bust and investors don't lose all of their money. They simply cannot sell their holdings until the suspension or gating is lifted, which could be after a number of days or weeks. This is in reference to open ended funds, not ETFs (although those could in theory be temporarily suspended from the stockmarket) or "weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends".RobHT said:Btw, funds don't go easily busted, and in any case, it's so difficult to lose all the money.Probably you are referring to ETFs or weird managed funds that promise 6-20% dividends...
So, if we need to consider every case, why we don't consider the next catastrophic war or nuclear contamination on a large scale? (both militar and from nuclear plants)
Let's talk with only Apples on the table, that's my point
.
Yes, even if the fund doesn't get halted for a while, selling may take also one week, but again, we already know these things, but you can still sell and take out a nice portion of money for emergencies, most probably with a little loss or huge loss but with much less probability.
Emergency for me is when I have an empty bank account and no income.There's no point worrying about risks that you cannot mitigate. War and nuclear events are not in my circle of concern. An empty bank account and no money coming in is something I can take steps to avoid, as is being forced to sell investments at an inopportune time.Coming back to the matter at hand, you've mentioned two types of asset that "You can also cash out at any time, think about the most IMPORTANT BENEFIT": crypto and growth stocks. I must admit, I don't even fully understand how we got to here from there, but I'm just going to take your most recent post as acknowledgement that you were using some poetic licence with "at any time". Presumably if your crypto was down 80% from its peak, your stock portfolio would be sufficiently diversified that you could find something you could sell without incurring a similar sized loss, you'd be ok with any loss you did suffer, and you'd have enough cash to bridge the gap if it did take time to execute your trade, have it settle, and get it out to your bank account.All of this was in comparison with a LISA, which... you can cash out at any time for a small net loss.
But there's been a time where I relied only on my cash (just waiting the time to rebalance), therefore, that was my emergency fund, the rest were only exp growth stocks and cryptos (very little amount), this was an exceptional situation and I made it in a way that the cash was enough for emergencies, luckily I hadn't any problem but as I said, if you meet a very bad situation, nothing will save you.Some people do only invest in risky and turbulent investments. Some people make crypto a significant part of their investment portfolio. It is good that you have fallen into neither of these traps.For most people, the very bad situation they will face is a loss of income for several months, with no eligibility for means tested benefits because of their investments. An emergency fund will save you from making bad investment trades during such a period if you are unlucky enough to be made redundant during a recession and high unemployment for example. Over the years, as you build your wealth, a further objective could be to be able to live off your investments if you become unable to work. This is a risk that becomes more relevant the older you become. Even having the option to give up work, or work less and/or do something you love for less money, is a valuable option to have. In any of these scenarios, managing drawdowns of investments by maintaining a suitable cash buffer and/or low risk investments like bonds, is important.RobHT said:If you cash out from a LISA without following the rules for cash out (like to buy the first house) I think you lose a lot
.
If you cash out of a LISA and pay the penatly, the net effect of receiving the 25% bonus, then paying the 25% penalty, is a loss of 6.25%. If you wish to use a LISA to save for a property purchase, you are doing so because of the attractiveness of the 25% bonus. You have to weigh up the relative probabilities that you will actually be able to use the LISA for this purpose vs switch it to a retirement fund vs withdraw the money with a penalty. Those who use the LISA for retirement should be investing in a S&S LISA, so are already taking on the kind of risk the LISA wrapper carries. If they have taken the sensible steps of holding an emergency fund, plus a S&S ISA/unwrapped investments, then it is highly unlikely they'd be forced to sell and spend all of their other assets and then have to turn to the LISA.For most people, a 90% chance of getting an extra 25%, vs a 10% chance of a loss of 6.25% is a risk worth taking. At some point the risk/reward becomes not worth it (a 20% chance of you buying a home with your LISA would be the breakeven probability), but the vast majority of people who use LISAs for saving for their first property purchase or retirement do so with a very high degree of confidence that they use the LISA for its intended purpose, so it is a no brainer for them. For retirement, LISAs obviously aren't the only game in town, but the 'access with penalty' model may actually be preferable to some than a SIPP, where they could not access the money early except if terminally ill, no matter how desperate for money they were.3 -
I did not assume any one rate of return and ran income simulations with a range of net returns after inflation ranging from 8% to 0%. I have been doing this for a while and it convinced me that I wanted to be able to live on dividends alone so that times such as these would be less of a worry. I concluded that rather than relying on investment gains alone I should save very aggressively and budget carefully to reduce my spending. I then became even more risk averse and actively sought out a job with a DB pension and also invested in a rental property for long term income. I started out with the Bengen/Trinity 4% rule, flirted with Guyton Klinger, then settled on DB pension and rental income plus an equity heavy investment portfolio designed for growth and inheritance rather than retirement income.“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”3
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