Resolved now

Type_45

homestraight said:

@bowlhead99
I used to enjoy his posts! 

An excellent contributor.  

mark_cycling00

My post asking what would happen to energy prices if Putin turned off nord stream was banned for 'not being relevant " and then he turned it off.

Anyway back on topic. 

My thoughts are that there are lots of people who correctly predicted high inflation and recession but they often also predicted nuclear attacks and a Taiwan invasion by now. (personally I expect a non kinetic naval trade blockade)

What I'm looking for is someone (for example) who is speaking to CEOs regularly about the future and can synthesise this into reliable predictions and prepared to go public.

What I noticed about Sorrell is that he'd predict a GDP figure for the UK in 2023 and then a few weeks later, the BOE would announce the same figure. And this pattern would happen very regularly 

Type_45

The central banks follow the market. 

dunstonh

Audaxer said:

homestraight said:

@bowlhead99
I used to enjoy his posts! 

His posts were sometimes a bit long, but were very good and he was certainly one of the most knowledgeable posters on here. I was wondering why I hadn't seen any of his posts recently - has he just left the forum?

Like so many of the decent posters on this site, he was banned.     If you look at a thread in this section from about 3-5 years ago, you cannot go past a page without seeing quality posters banned.   It's because a couple of snowflakes took offence and then went vindictive.    You have to be so careful now as a handful of posters here try to wind up the regulars to provoke a reaction that they can then report to the board, and the board gets rid of the decent poster but keeps the troll.

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the quality of threads in this section has recently declined.   If you remove the discussion makers, you reduce discussion and without discussion, what is the point of a discussion board?

bostonerimus

My Mum and Dad. They never used "hire purchase", and always put a "little extra away" for a rainy day.  My understanding of basic mathematics convinced me early on that regular saving into low cost index funds was a prudent strategy after I had secured a base of guaranteed retirement income. So at 25, as an expat, I started paying voluntary NI to make sure I got UK state pension and bought a deferred annuity to secure a little bit more guaranteed income and then put as much as I could afford into a 60/40 mix of index funds...then I discovered Vanguard and found that I had pretty much followed Bogle's advice. I don't really have an investment "guru" as I think most of it is numerology and flim flam, but my personal finance gurus are Mum, Dad and Bogle.

bostonerimus

Deleted_User said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI

Jim Simons is a brilliant mathematician who has been running a couple of investment funds using "quantitative methods" for a few decades and seems to have been very successful. His academic work has applications in quantum field theory and string theory. So the guy is smart. However, his funds and very opaque and I have no understanding of his methods and so, even if I could, I would never invest in his funds. I can just about get my head around index funds so I stick with them.

mark_cycling00

Feral. That's a good point. I guess I'd have a week or so to beat any market reaction (not very significant) but longer term I'd feel more confident about staying Value in UK and having more funds in North america, middle East, India and parts of Asia.

DunstonH, I agree and I guess there are two problems:
1. MSE is probably terrified of an angry mob coming after them and allowing "hate" speech is an easy option. Martin being Jewish and centre-right makes it more of target for the far left.
2. "Digital repression" is the practice of suppressing influencers and certain viewpoints by organised extreme groups, through mass reporting of posts and even becoming a moderator of a site to ban users. 

masonic

mark_cycling00 said:

DunstonH, I agree and I guess there are two problems:
1. MSE is probably terrified of an angry mob coming after them and allowing "hate" speech is an easy option. Martin being Jewish and centre-right makes it more of target for the far left.
2. "Digital repression" is the practice of suppressing influencers and certain viewpoints by organised extreme groups, through mass reporting of posts and even becoming a moderator of a site to ban users. 

It is almost entirely 2, and far more petty than that. Some people just don't like being called out and go around maliciously reporting posts as revenge. Long term members build up a string of black marks over time, and these don't seem to ever expire, so after accumulating enough they are permanently banned. It can and does happen to even the most mild mannered poster. It is virtually impossible to avoid something you say across hundreds of posts being interpreted as 'unfriendly' (especially if being provoked), so if someone is out to get you, they generally succeed eventually. We've lost dozens of highly valued contributors as a result of this.

TBC15

homestraight said:

@bowlhead99
I used to enjoy his posts! 

bowlhead99 was probably one of the few people at school who had please don’t show your workings on his homework from the teacher, so comprehensive where his replies.

dales1

Surely the mods could by now, show some common sense and reinstate Mr bowlhead99; this most decent, expert and considerate fellow.

(NB if mods were to reconsider, that would demonstrate their strength of character).

Our forum is so much weaker without some banned yet esteemed contributors.

(Incidentally I am very pleased that the support to restore the forum's most prolific poster, yet banned for a while, did finally succeed. But it should not have been neccessary. Moderation needs to have common sense applied).

There is (or has been) something very wrong in the bowels of the mods' operation, I think.

And it detracts from the quality of the forum content.

Dales.