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Are solar panels pointless?
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I can give data over 107 days. Install of solar/batteries in March, data from 15th April when energy accounts transferred to Octopus and started receiving export payments. Calculated to 31st July.
Would previously have used 1020kWh (9.53kWh/day) actual use from grid is 120kWh, saving 900kWh @ SVT = £246
Income from exported solar = £201
Total savings so far = £447Barnsley, South Yorkshire
Solar PV 5.25kWp SW facing (14 x 375) Lux 3.6kw hybrid inverter installed Mar 22 and 9.6kw Pylontech battery
Daikin 8kW ASHP installed Jan 25
Octopus Cosy/Fixed Outgoing1 -
ed110220 said:jamesmorgan said:silverwhistle said:jamesmorgan said:It is very apparent that there is a very wide range of estimates for pay back periods from many organisations actively promoting solar panels. This is an indication that it is a complex area and much depends on a variety of assumptions. For this reason it is critical to obtain data from a wide range of sources and then aggregate the data before coming to a decision.Please.. perhaps you don't appreciate exactly how patronising this sounds, but Hexane was pointing out the complexity and the number of variables for payback; with a background of personal experience, not as an organisation promoting solar panels.Of course one needs to research these matters but,as ABrass has pointed out, you need to choose and assess your sources, as the ones you have selected "at random" as evidence for your views have flaws.
My point which I stick by is that anyone considering installed solar panels needs to take feedback from early adopters with a pinch of salt and do some proper research. I'm not attempting to influence anyone who has already bought into the technology - you have already committed to the decision and it is what it is for you.
https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/main/solar-panels/return-on-investment-for-pv-return-on-investment-for-solar-panels-roi-for-pv-solar-panels-pay-back/
https://solartogether.co.uk/blog/how-long-until-solar-panels-pay-for-themselves
https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/2014/06/solar-panels-are-they-worth-it
https://www.solarguide.co.uk/solar-panel-payback-time#/
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/free-solar-panels/
https://uk.renogy.com/blog/what-is-the-average-payback-period-for-solar-panels-in-the-uk/
https://greenbusinesswatch.co.uk/uk-domestic-solar-panel-costs-and-returns-2019
https://blog.spiritenergy.co.uk/homeowner/solar-panel-payback
https://www.theweek.co.uk/business/personal-finance/956333/solar-panels-are-they-worth-the-investment
https://www.realhomes.com/advice/how-much-do-solar-panels-cost
The only reasonably rigorous way to estimate savings will be with:-
a) Price of PV system (+ batteries if using)
b) Estimating generation, which is straightforward if you know the wattage of the proposed system, its location and bearing from south.
c) Your electricity consumption, during the day especially if not using batteries (more difficult without analysing smart meter data).
d) Your electricity cost
Taking estimates from random websites is going to be about as useful as a chocolate teapot, or worse horribly misleading.
For example I had a 4.8 kW system with 6.5 kWh of batteries installed for less than the price that one of those sites suggested was typical for just the PV. We don't use an unusual amount of electricity and have saved £120 in 49 days since install.
The first link calculates payback using "FIT" payments and assumes a price for electricity from the grid of 15p / kWh.
The second is so superficial as to be useless.
The third is the same source I was critical of earlier.
None of the links have current electricity prices included. Doubling the savings has a significant impact on financial performance.8kW (4kW WNW, 4kW SSE) 6kW inverter. 6.5kWh battery.1 -
jamesmorgan said:Hexane said:jamesmorgan said:Hexane said:jamesmorgan said:In the same way as early energy saving lightbulbs were sold on the basis of extremely long lives, in real world conditions many turned out not to last as long as was originally assumed.
as for "too early to know", you do realise that many solar PV systems owned by people on this forum have been in use for more than ten years? Do you imagine that they will suddenly start exploding once they reach 15 years old, like human teenagers?jamesmorgan said:If I had a spare £5-10K sitting around and wanted to invest it for optimum payback, solar panels wouldn't be very close to the top of the list.
That's exactly why I bought solar panels when I could buy 315W panels cheaply, instead of similar-sized 200W panels for a lot more. Unfortunately for me - fortunately for some others - the government took the opposite view and subsidised people who bought the 200W panels. Still a topic for merry debates to this day, but both sets of people made the right decision.jamesmorgan said:My broad thoughts are that energy generation is much better when economies of scale are used to drive efficiency. Solar farms are a much better long term option than the cottage industry of having a generator on everyone's house.
You can buy a share in a solar farm if you want to. But you might be better off signing up to Ripple Energy.Hexane said:jamesmorgan said:In the same way as early energy saving lightbulbs were sold on the basis of extremely long lives, in real world conditions many turned out not to last as long as was originally assumed.
as for "too early to know", you do realise that many solar PV systems owned by people on this forum have been in use for more than ten years? Do you imagine that they will suddenly start exploding once they reach 15 years old, like human teenagers?jamesmorgan said:If I had a spare £5-10K sitting around and wanted to invest it for optimum payback, solar panels wouldn't be very close to the top of the list.
That's exactly why I bought solar panels when I could buy 315W panels cheaply, instead of similar-sized 200W panels for a lot more. Unfortunately for me - fortunately for some others - the government took the opposite view and subsidised people who bought the 200W panels. Still a topic for merry debates to this day, but both sets of people made the right decision.jamesmorgan said:My broad thoughts are that energy generation is much better when economies of scale are used to drive efficiency. Solar farms are a much better long term option than the cottage industry of having a generator on everyone's house.
You can buy a share in a solar farm if you want to. But you might be better off signing up to Ripple Energy.
Your "too early to really know" assumption is equally dangerous, solar panels have been around a long time and there is a wealth of data which shows that in general panel performance holds up better than originally predicted. Panels now routinely come with 20 or 25 year warranties for output.
The person who started this thread began with the unsourced and bizarrely worded claim "Apparently it can take a minimum of 14 years to break even" (either that's a minimum or it can take that long, do you see the problem with the wording?) and then followed that with "do they even last that long?" The answer of course is yes they do, and to even ask something so basic in such a skewed way, leads to wondering about the motivation for the post. A post which you then jumped on with information about LED light bulb failure rates and an old article from 2014.
It should be obvious why an article from 2014 is worse than useless for answering "are solar panels pointless" in 2022, but if not then just compare the price you were paying per kWh of electricity in 2014 (or 2013 if that's when the data for that article was collected) with the price you will be paying per kWh of electricity in October 2022.
Things change fast, and people on this forum are well aware of the different variables involved. No, payback time in years is not the only variable, that's just the end result that people (like the OP) tend to grab some figure from some source of greater or lesser reliability, and then tout it as "the answer" as to whether solar panels are worth it or not. Without understanding how that figure was arrived at or why the calculations might have changed in the last six months (never mind the last eight years).
So on this forum people are aware of the removal of FiT payments and the introduction of SEG payments. They're aware of the controversially high FiT payment rates for early adopters (many of which agreements are still in place to this day), and of the benefits of FiT payment rates being inflation-linked in an era of suddenly sky high inflation. They're aware of the possibility of receiving much higher rates than the common SEG ones by signing up to hourly export tariffs with Octopus (this is not pie in the sky, some people are already doing it), and in the more distant future possibilities like vehicle to grid and vehicle to home. Already in use are contracts where an energy supplier pays to be able to use your home battery for grid stabilisation, again discussed in detail on this forum although generally not well received.
And then there's also the possibility of high energy usage customers such as EV owners using preferential overnight rates to charge their cars and therefore in theory making less savings from solar panels. But conversely, the possibility of using solar diverters to displace gas (or other) heating. And the effects on the financial benefits of this caused by whether export payments are made based on deemed export or metered export. Again, all of this discussed in detail in this forum.
And then we have the sky-high prices of solar panel installations right now compared to five years ago, and we have the knowledge that solar panels generally last far longer than predicted but inverters do not.
And then there's the actual practicalities of how much of the generated power you're actually using, what proportion of that is really a saving, and how to maximise that. Which is very much something you learn by actually doing it, not by saying "the industry standard is to estimate 50%" and then plugging that into a spreadsheet and producing a "payback time in years is X" answer.
All of that is before we even get started on home batteries, with or without islanding capability, with or without special hourly import rates designed for them, and what their current cost is today or six months from now. And whether the electrification of heating and transport, and the need for air conditioning as the climate warms, means that household energy demands will be so much higher in future.
So there are a lot of variables, not just some payback-in-years number that someone came up with in 2014 based on a finger-in-the-air quote for a "typically sized system". (For example - I paid much less per kWp installed capacity by installing a larger system.)
Many people on this forum are making solar panels "work for them", some of them in fact appear to be making colossal profits due to being early adopters. Some of those people are re-investing those profits in things like home battery systems which might not have a worthwhile ROI, but they find it interesting (or ethical) to try. There's one regular poster here who began a couple of years ago by wondering if an 8 year ROI was possible for a solar panel install, I believe we told him that it wasn't possible. His initial data after the install suggested that we were right, but now that energy prices have gone through the roof, that might not be the case any more.
"do they even last that long" and "can take up to a minimum of" and "too early to really know" is the dangerous and misleading thinking.
When is the best time to plant a fruit tree? 20 years ago. When is the second best time to plant a fruit tree? Today.
Similar applies to solar panels, the best time to buy them was just over ten years ago because of the huge profits from FiT ... the second best time to buy solar panels is still today. (Although, given the lateness of the hour, you could probably wait till Monday.)Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.2 -
Alnat1 said:I can give data over 107 days. Install of solar/batteries in March, data from 15th April when energy accounts transferred to Octopus and started receiving export payments. Calculated to 31st July.
35,000kWh generated. FIT payments of £18k, cost of system £9k. That's way less than the claimed 14 years.Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.3 -
But taking this thread to more helpful areas. The most important part of Solar panels is not falling for the former double glazing salesmen.
The installation price people get quoted is the biggest challenge. Like any bit of building work you get a huge range of quotes from different companies, even for the same kit to be installed.
The next is unpicking the stupid estimates for repayment. The numbers I've been given by different companies have been ridiculously over optimistic. I don't think I'm an exception here either. The industry is rewarded for over stating potential returns so everyone seems to do it.
Knowing what is and isn't a reasonable quote and what is and isn't a sensible rate of return is important.
I think it's worth a thread...8kW (4kW WNW, 4kW SSE) 6kW inverter. 6.5kWh battery.5 -
jamesmorgan said:Martyn1981 said:jamesmorgan said:Hexane said:jamesmorgan said:Hexane said:jamesmorgan said:In the same way as early energy saving lightbulbs were sold on the basis of extremely long lives, in real world conditions many turned out not to last as long as was originally assumed.
as for "too early to know", you do realise that many solar PV systems owned by people on this forum have been in use for more than ten years? Do you imagine that they will suddenly start exploding once they reach 15 years old, like human teenagers?jamesmorgan said:If I had a spare £5-10K sitting around and wanted to invest it for optimum payback, solar panels wouldn't be very close to the top of the list.
That's exactly why I bought solar panels when I could buy 315W panels cheaply, instead of similar-sized 200W panels for a lot more. Unfortunately for me - fortunately for some others - the government took the opposite view and subsidised people who bought the 200W panels. Still a topic for merry debates to this day, but both sets of people made the right decision.jamesmorgan said:My broad thoughts are that energy generation is much better when economies of scale are used to drive efficiency. Solar farms are a much better long term option than the cottage industry of having a generator on everyone's house.
You can buy a share in a solar farm if you want to. But you might be better off signing up to Ripple Energy.Hexane said:jamesmorgan said:In the same way as early energy saving lightbulbs were sold on the basis of extremely long lives, in real world conditions many turned out not to last as long as was originally assumed.
as for "too early to know", you do realise that many solar PV systems owned by people on this forum have been in use for more than ten years? Do you imagine that they will suddenly start exploding once they reach 15 years old, like human teenagers?jamesmorgan said:If I had a spare £5-10K sitting around and wanted to invest it for optimum payback, solar panels wouldn't be very close to the top of the list.
That's exactly why I bought solar panels when I could buy 315W panels cheaply, instead of similar-sized 200W panels for a lot more. Unfortunately for me - fortunately for some others - the government took the opposite view and subsidised people who bought the 200W panels. Still a topic for merry debates to this day, but both sets of people made the right decision.jamesmorgan said:My broad thoughts are that energy generation is much better when economies of scale are used to drive efficiency. Solar farms are a much better long term option than the cottage industry of having a generator on everyone's house.
You can buy a share in a solar farm if you want to. But you might be better off signing up to Ripple Energy.
Your "too early to really know" assumption is equally dangerous, solar panels have been around a long time and there is a wealth of data which shows that in general panel performance holds up better than originally predicted. Panels now routinely come with 20 or 25 year warranties for output.
The person who started this thread began with the unsourced and bizarrely worded claim "Apparently it can take a minimum of 14 years to break even" (either that's a minimum or it can take that long, do you see the problem with the wording?) and then followed that with "do they even last that long?" The answer of course is yes they do, and to even ask something so basic in such a skewed way, leads to wondering about the motivation for the post. A post which you then jumped on with information about LED light bulb failure rates and an old article from 2014.
It should be obvious why an article from 2014 is worse than useless for answering "are solar panels pointless" in 2022, but if not then just compare the price you were paying per kWh of electricity in 2014 (or 2013 if that's when the data for that article was collected) with the price you will be paying per kWh of electricity in October 2022.
Things change fast, and people on this forum are well aware of the different variables involved. No, payback time in years is not the only variable, that's just the end result that people (like the OP) tend to grab some figure from some source of greater or lesser reliability, and then tout it as "the answer" as to whether solar panels are worth it or not. Without understanding how that figure was arrived at or why the calculations might have changed in the last six months (never mind the last eight years).
So on this forum people are aware of the removal of FiT payments and the introduction of SEG payments. They're aware of the controversially high FiT payment rates for early adopters (many of which agreements are still in place to this day), and of the benefits of FiT payment rates being inflation-linked in an era of suddenly sky high inflation. They're aware of the possibility of receiving much higher rates than the common SEG ones by signing up to hourly export tariffs with Octopus (this is not pie in the sky, some people are already doing it), and in the more distant future possibilities like vehicle to grid and vehicle to home. Already in use are contracts where an energy supplier pays to be able to use your home battery for grid stabilisation, again discussed in detail on this forum although generally not well received.
And then there's also the possibility of high energy usage customers such as EV owners using preferential overnight rates to charge their cars and therefore in theory making less savings from solar panels. But conversely, the possibility of using solar diverters to displace gas (or other) heating. And the effects on the financial benefits of this caused by whether export payments are made based on deemed export or metered export. Again, all of this discussed in detail in this forum.
And then we have the sky-high prices of solar panel installations right now compared to five years ago, and we have the knowledge that solar panels generally last far longer than predicted but inverters do not.
And then there's the actual practicalities of how much of the generated power you're actually using, what proportion of that is really a saving, and how to maximise that. Which is very much something you learn by actually doing it, not by saying "the industry standard is to estimate 50%" and then plugging that into a spreadsheet and producing a "payback time in years is X" answer.
All of that is before we even get started on home batteries, with or without islanding capability, with or without special hourly import rates designed for them, and what their current cost is today or six months from now. And whether the electrification of heating and transport, and the need for air conditioning as the climate warms, means that household energy demands will be so much higher in future.
So there are a lot of variables, not just some payback-in-years number that someone came up with in 2014 based on a finger-in-the-air quote for a "typically sized system". (For example - I paid much less per kWp installed capacity by installing a larger system.)
Many people on this forum are making solar panels "work for them", some of them in fact appear to be making colossal profits due to being early adopters. Some of those people are re-investing those profits in things like home battery systems which might not have a worthwhile ROI, but they find it interesting (or ethical) to try. There's one regular poster here who began a couple of years ago by wondering if an 8 year ROI was possible for a solar panel install, I believe we told him that it wasn't possible. His initial data after the install suggested that we were right, but now that energy prices have gone through the roof, that might not be the case any more.
"do they even last that long" and "can take up to a minimum of" and "too early to really know" is the dangerous and misleading thinking.
When is the best time to plant a fruit tree? 20 years ago. When is the second best time to plant a fruit tree? Today.
Similar applies to solar panels, the best time to buy them was just over ten years ago because of the huge profits from FiT ... the second best time to buy solar panels is still today. (Although, given the lateness of the hour, you could probably wait till Monday.)
The answer is it is complex and you need to do extensive research involving data from lots of different sources. If once doing this research the payback period is greated than 10 years, then it is likely that greater invesment returns can be obtained from other sources.
One of the key issues as an investor in solar panels (rather than somone who installs solar panels for ethical/security reasons) is that once the investment is made you cannot back out of it. As such is it very tempting to only read materials that support your initial decision and to discount any data source that seem to suggest that solar panel investment is becoming more marginal.
Of greater interest is not whether the 3% of people who have installed solar panels think that it is a good investment, but why the 97% of people who haven't, continue to think that is the best decision for them.
If you are interested in getting PV, then ask away on here, there are loads of folk who give you advice, including telling you outright that PV won't work for you, if that's the case.
Personally, (and keep this between you and me), now might not be the best time to get PV as there's a rush on, and all sorts of global issues, especially regarding transport costs, so things are pretty crazy. It might be that it only gets worse in the short term, but hopefully things will settle down in a year or two, and component costs will fall again.
For your information, my sister got a 10.3kWp system installed last Autumn for ~£8k, but she did already have scaffolding in place. Now, less than a year later, busy solar firms seem to be pricing far smaller installs for almost as much.
I'm not considering PV at the moment. I looked at them around 10 years ago. The sums didn't work for me then (both at the time and with a retrospective analysis). I have also looked recently and as you rightly say the sums look worse now.
I have no vested interest either way in this - although do suggest to anyone considering it that they look into it carefully and not get too swayed by anyone with a vested interest.
You've looked at some random sites and seem to accept the info given.
But on here, where you have a wealth of PV'ers, who can give you real data, and advice on prices, deals and installs, you've chosen to insult all of them, seeming to suggest some sort of confirmation bias and personal interest in misleading those considering PV.
I accept that current install costs (this year) are much higher, and that is reflected in the advice. This will correct, but may last for 1 or 2yrs (perhaps).
Two things typically happen on here:
Scenario one - Folk come on giving quotes (for example £9k) and PV'ers explain that's way too high. Suggest getting more quotes, explain some of the intricacies of PV, and offer thoughts and opinions on new quotes. Resulting in say a price of £6k.
Scenario two - folk come on explaining the huge savings they expect to get, based on installers estimates, often those quotes are suggesting 70-100% consumption. Advice on here (exc batts) will be to suggest 30-50% consumption (50% for very high leccy daytime users). This advice may well lead to the poster not proceeding, though scenario one may then kick in lowering costs, to balance reduced income.
We have no vested interest, though I suppose on this specific MSE board, many (myself included) will add additional value for the green and ethical side.
If you don't believe us, then that's fine, but perhaps you should ask yourself what we have to gain, then read any and all advice on here again, without your blinkers.Mart. Cardiff. 8.72 kWp PV systems (2.12 SSW 4.6 ESE & 2.0 WNW). 20kWh battery storage. Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's for cleaner driving.
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.4 -
So I thought that I would add my experience with solar panels including my hard facts. I did not add Solar to make huge profits, I added them because they would pay for themselves over the expected 30 year life span, and they gave me a 'feel good' factor. I also expected electricity prices to rise above inflation given the push to zero. I reckoned on 16 years to pay. That would have given me a tax free return of around £300 a year for the entire period as well as refunding my initial investment.
Largish house facing roughly east, installation cost me say £10k in late 2020, deliberately used a more expensive installer and equipment, and have panels on both sides of the roof.
Total electric use prior to installation 3,200 kWh a year.
2021 Production 5,600 kWh, internal consumption 1,600 kWh, exported 4,000 kWh. Total benefit £460. Years to pay 22.
So far in 2022 I am slightly ahead of the kWh figures in respect of production, but across self-consumption and export I am averaging 25p per kWh on Octopus Flexible import and Octopus Agile Outgoing. Using the above figures will give a total benefit of £1,400 this year. Years to pay 7.
Average the two years. Years to pay 11. Pick any other calculation or guess and get another answer!
Am I pleased that I have them - absolutely. Are they looking like a great investment - who knows - but that was not the reason for putting them in.5 -
jimjames said:When 40% of Brits don't have enough savings to last a month without income there is a massive proportion who couldn't pay for panels even if they wanted to do so.NE Derbyshire.4kWp S Facing 17.5deg slope (dormer roof).24kWh of Pylontech batteries with Lux controller BEV : Hyundai Ioniq53
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In the interest of transparency, I couldn't afford my panels, I've put them on a 0% credit card but I know I'll be able to pay them back by the time the 0% offer ends.4.29kWp Solar system, 45/55 South/West split in cloudy rainy Cumbria.3
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I said it before and i say again, i dont understand the obsession with solar having to pay for itself.
Another question, how many of you PVers would still have got solar if it never paid for itself?
I didnt look at any payback figures on any quotes i had, and i havent worked out how long it will take to pay back what i spent on it, i don't care, i like the fact i am no longer at the mercy of utility companies, i am a high electric user.
I dont get the mindset of some of the bean counter types on here but I'm sure likewise there would be others who dont agree with my point of view.
To those who think it's a waste of time and money, lets talk in 2023 after winter bills and energy blackouts 🙂1
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