How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

sevenhills said:

Type_45 said:

What's the same with the UK and US is that both are engaging at the same time in MMT. Both are engaging in exorbitant borrowing and spending. Both have engaged in a war on domestic energy. Both are engaged in throwing money we can't afford at Ukraine.

Both economies are on the verge of depressions. And they aren't alone in the world on that.

Sterling is falling, where as the Dollar is strong. The USA have increased interest rates faster, because UK mortgage holders are used to low rates. Will the government succeed in stopping a housing crash/down turn?
Does the USA have 50% home owners?
The UK government has debt that gets more costly if interest rates increase.

Home ownership is about 65% in both the US and the UK. Google dot com.

Type_45

plumb1_2 said:

Silver @£15 per once, will we ever see the 2011 highs ?

Cheapest asset by far. 

I still resent paying the vat, however.

MiserlyMartin

One might say that the USA has a more credible central bank, it is raising quicker and faster. Though compared to the BoE that is not difficult.

daz378

Plus at the moment anyway...the dollar  is seen as safety currency...which the UK is not .... our international  debt interest rate will double...as the markets objectively   assess our economic strategy....fray bentos and tins of beans it is then... worrying times

Type_45

MiserlyMartin said:

One might say that the USA has a more credible central bank, it is raising quicker and faster. Though compared to the BoE that is not difficult.

One might say that and one would be wrong. 

The Fed is making a mistake raising rates and it should be abolished in any case. 

plumb1_2

Type_45 said:

plumb1_2 said:

Silver @£15 per once, will we ever see the 2011 highs ?

Cheapest asset by far. 

I still resent paying the vat, however.

Poor man’s gold.

Type_45

daz378 said:

Plus at the moment anyway...the dollar  is seen as safety currency...which the UK is not .... our international  debt interest rate will double...as the markets objectively   assess our economic strategy....fray bentos and tins of beans it is then... worrying times

We have an economic strategy?

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

How is that different to what the US is doing?

The US is tightening to the same extent as the UK whilst simultaneously throwing it around like confetti.

What is the difference between what the UK is doing and the US?

What is it that the US is doing that you think is equivalent to yesterday's UK announcement?

I'm a big picture guy. I don't get bogged down in the minutia of unfunded tax cuts in the UK for a few hundred thousand rich people etc etc.

What's the same with the UK and US is that both are engaging at the same time in MMT. Both are engaging in exorbitant borrowing and spending. Both have engaged in a war on domestic energy. Both are engaged in throwing money we can't afford at Ukraine.

Both economies are on the verge of depressions. And they aren't alone in the world on that.

Look at what the bond market is saying.

Well the devil really is in the detail. US has a coherent policy of tightening with plenty of forward guidance. It is showing it has learned lessons from the Volcker era and is doing what is necessary to prevent the self-fulfilling prophesy that happens when people get used to and expect continued high inflation. It is in a strong enough position to weather the consequences of its actions. We'll probably see a short recession followed by a protracted period of low growth, a global depression really isn't on the cards. The falling bond market in the US (and elsewhere) is an adjustment to interest rate policy. What happened in the gilt market yesterday was a response to self-inflicted economic damage. The currencies tell the story of confidence in the respective countries.

Type_45 said:

If you think you're safe because your global tracker is only 5% UK focused then best of luck with that. 

Even your fabled 80% drop wouldn't put me in particular jeopardy, although it would sting a bit. My equity percentage is not far from the lowest it has ever been, and as valuations come down, I'll be over-rebalancing and be a net buyer of equities, so stand to benefit from whatever drops we have going forward from here.

sevenhills

MiserlyMartin said:

One might say that the USA has a more credible central bank, it is raising quicker and faster. Though compared to the BoE that is not difficult.

Had they known what Kwartang was going to do, they would surely have increased rates by .75 +

Type_45

We are facing the biggest crash in history. 2008 was a picnic by comparison. 1929 is the only thing which comes close.