Green Energy UK - what's the catch?

What_time_is_it

Green Energy UK seem to be offering the best fix around at the moment:

Gas 11.75p per unit
Electricity 38.21p per unit
Fixed until 30th September 2023
No exit fees

If I estimate around 80% increase in gas prices and around 40% increase in electricity over winter I would guess than the SVR/price cap rates will be around 13p for gas and 40p for electricity. Does that sounds about right?

So, is it worth signing up for the Green Energy UK fix to cover this winter? 
Surely I can always leave to another supplier if the SVR comes down or better fixes become available? 
Or is there a chance the suppliers might stop accepting new customers and I might get "locked in"?

Mstty

Minimal chance of being locked in from September 2023....

Yet to reach 500,000 customers so relatively small so they could potentially go bust but then you have protection.for that.

I think you have been on other threads where the price cap has been discussed for Oct 44p elec 14p gas (table below thanks @QrizB) best guesstimates and also Jan 2023 below as well.

MWT

What_time_is_it said:

So, is it worth signing up for the Green Energy UK fix to cover this winter? 
Surely I can always leave to another supplier if the SVR comes down or better fixes become available? 
Or is there a chance the suppliers might stop accepting new customers and I might get "locked in"?

The only potential catch is if you sign-up now and they go bust just before October, you will have been paying higher prices than you needed to for about 10 weeks and then you will not get the benefit of the fixed prices over winter.

As long as that doesn't happen, and your consumption over the next 10 weeks isn't particularly high then it looks like a good deal.

pochase

What_time_is_it said:

Green Energy UK seem to be offering the best fix around at the moment:

Gas 11.75p per unit
Electricity 38.21p per unit
Fixed until 30th September 2023
No exit fees

If I estimate around 80% increase in gas prices and around 40% increase in electricity over winter I would guess than the SVR/price cap rates will be around 13p for gas and 40p for electricity. Does that sounds about right?

So, is it worth signing up for the Green Energy UK fix to cover this winter? 
Surely I can always leave to another supplier if the SVR comes down or better fixes become available? 
Or is there a chance the suppliers might stop accepting new customers and I might get "locked in"?

Suppliers are already now not accepting new customers on SVT, exceptions are EDF and Octopus if you call them (potentially repeatedly).

So it is the other way around, we hope that suppliers might start to accept new customers again next year with a more competitive market again. 

So while in theory you could be locked in, hopefully there will be always somewhere to go.

I am just a bit uneasy why a company that was always more expensive than other suppliers due to being real green has now for weeks the cheapest fixed rate and has not withdrawn it after increased cap predictions. Does not make much business sense for me.

Chrysalis

Its a little concerning there is no focus on SC's and predicted SVR SC's lately, it can be useful for those with low usage levels.

Without the SC I cannot comment on those tariffs properly.

For a fixed gas tariff at 11.75p unit to be worth it for a heavy user in July 2022 (where the SC is not so important), and consider the current SVR rate of 7p unit, then arguably the SVR needs to rise to at least 16p unit no later than December (approx 120%).  This requirement falls a bit if the SC on the fixed tariff is more favourable.  For light users then the SC is very important perhaps more so than the unit rate, which is why I was curious what it is.

The value on the electric is probably ok providing the SC is reasonable.  The gas I think is a gamble and not clear cut.

MWT

pochase said:

I am just a bit uneasy why a company that was always more expensive than other suppliers due to being real green has now for weeks the cheapest fixed rate and has not withdrawn it after increased cap predictions. Does not make much business sense for me.

Same here, and why I outlined the risk in my earlier post.

Unless they have somehow managed to over commit on their hedging for the winter, this just doesn't make sense...

What_time_is_it

The standing charges they are offering are actually very similar to what I have now:

Gas - 31.31p
Elec - 44.74p

On those rates the SC would make up less than 15% of overall bill, so for me it's much more important to focus on unit rates.
I use about 13,000 units of gas and around 2,000 units of electricity, so not particularly high.

MWT

What_time_is_it said:

The standing charges they are offering are actually very similar to what I have now:

Gas - 31.31p
Elec - 44.74p

On those rates the SC would make up less than 15% of overall bill, so for me it's much more important to focus on unit rates.
I use about 13,000 units of gas and around 2,000 units of electricity, so not particularly high.

You are not risking much then as I imagine your current gas use is very low and your total annual electricity use is well below the typical UK customer.

What_time_is_it

I only use about 100kwhs of gas per month and 150 kwhs of electricity per month during the summer months so between now the new price cap kicking in on October 1st I think I will use about 250 kwhs of gas and around 400 of electricity. 
It's all about winter usage.

Chrysalis

Mstty said:

Minimal chance of being locked in from September 2023....

Yet to reach 500,000 customers so relatively small so they could potentially go bust but then you have protection.for that.

I think you have been on other threads where the price cap has been discussed for Oct 44p elec 14p gas (table below thanks @QrizB) best guesstimates and also Jan 2023 below as well.

Just noticed this, do you have the link to the thread where this was posted so I can keep track?

That suggests a SC of roughly 27.4p day for gas and 46.6p for electric.

At those SVR unit rates assuming they include VAT, I think this fixed deal is a slight loser for gas.

What_time_is_it

Chrysalis said:

Mstty said:

Minimal chance of being locked in from September 2023....

Yet to reach 500,000 customers so relatively small so they could potentially go bust but then you have protection.for that.

I think you have been on other threads where the price cap has been discussed for Oct 44p elec 14p gas (table below thanks @QrizB) best guesstimates and also Jan 2023 below as well.

Just noticed this, do you have the link to the thread where this was posted so I can keep track?

That suggests a SC of roughly 27.4p day for gas and 46.6p for electric.

At those SVR unit rates assuming they include VAT, I think this fixed deal is a slight loser for gas.

But if I'm saving about 2.5-3p per unit on gas, that will save me about £250-£300?
How can the standing charges be more than £250 extra on the fixed deal? They'd have to be over £1 a day to make it more expensive wouldn't they?