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October price cap electricity cost per kwh

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  • Spoonie_Turtle
    Spoonie_Turtle Posts: 8,654 Forumite
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    QrizB said:
    pochase said:
    But they do. This is the one Martin was referring to last week, and it is broken down.
    https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/cornwall-insight-comments-on-its-january-default-tariff-cap-forecast-rising-to-3000-for-a-typical-user/
    Maybe another one of let's stick with just one figure like the 54%? This single figures are much nicer for headlines.
    Here's a table that breaks those CI forecasts down, with an assumed SC per fuel similar to the current one:

    Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023
    Gas SC £ 100 100 100 100
    Gas price £ 1496.11 1503.45 1311.76 1270.19
    Gas /kWh p 12.47 12.53 10.93 10.58





    Elec SC £ 170 170 170 170
    Elec price £ 1214.52 1229.75 1176.57 1145.53
    Elec /kWh p 41.88 42.41 40.57 39.5
    Hope this helps.
    When I was doing the calculations for stick or fix, I was using 45p for electricity based on an increase of ~51%.  If your breakdown there is anywhere near accurate, we would have overpaid these months then not saved anything from a fix.  (We haven't done anything yet, still on the SVT.)
  • pochase
    pochase Posts: 3,449 Forumite
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    You cannot just use 51%. That is the same as the 54% from April that was meaningless.

    Assuming that there is no change in standing charge take the electricity figure from the Cornwall Insights press release, deduct the standing charge and divide by the 3100KWh Ofgem uses.

    My rate for electricity is a 0.8p higher, but I think that is because of the rate for standing charge I used was slightly lower, gas figure is the same as the one from @Qrizb.






  • QrizB
    QrizB Posts: 13,822 Forumite
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    If your breakdown there is anywhere near accurate, we would have overpaid these months then not saved anything from a fix.
    All I've done is taken the CI estimates, knocked off the SC and then divided what's left by 12000 (gas) or 2900 (electricity). It's only as valid as the CI estimate is.
    pochase said:
    My rate for electricity is a 0.8p higher, but I think that is because of the rate for standing charge I used was slightly lower, gas figure is the same as the one from @Qrizb.
    My SC is rounded up to the nearest £10 and includes VAT, but is based on the average Ofgem April 22 SC.
    N. Hampshire, he/him. Octopus Go elec & Tracker gas / Shell BB / Lyca mobi. Ripple Kirk Hill member.
    2.72kWp PV facing SSW installed Jan 2012. 11 x 247w panels, 3.6kw inverter. 30MWh generated, long-term average 2.6 Os.
    Taking a break, hope to be back eventually.
    Ofgem cap table, Ofgem cap explainer. Economy 7 cap explainer. Gas vs E7 vs peak elec heating costs.
  • nekr0mantik
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    Wow so all of 2023 we will have increased charges. Does anyone think it's very unlikely prices will drop more next year and the prediction is usually accurate?
  • Chrysalis
    Chrysalis Posts: 4,185 Forumite
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    edited 2 August 2022 at 11:35PM
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    Is the breakdown assuming more rise hits gas than electric, because thats how it happened on last 2 increases, I remember someone on here predicting rates of 13-14p for gas,

    Also whats the basis of the predictions of a drop later in 2023?  As I dont see anything that would cause that, no new gas storage, no new gas sources, still ukraine war, no wholesale regulation and still a volatile open market.  Even in the middle of summer the gas wholesale rates shot up last week.

    Ahh yes that todays prediction looks somewhat more realistic although I think it will keep rising rather than stabilising.

    Did ofgem ever say how long the SC increases for the company liquidations would last for or is it perpetual?
  • spot1034
    spot1034 Posts: 836 Forumite
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    Wow so all of 2023 we will have increased charges. Does anyone think it's very unlikely prices will drop more next year and the prediction is usually accurate?
    I think it will depend on what the prospects are looking forward. If the Russian situation has stabilised a bit (I'm thinking Putin might no longer be there) and politicians in the west can get their act together and be going all out to bring new supplies on line as rapidly as possible, that alone should have a calming effect on markets even if we are still some way from actually achieving that goal. Markets always hate uncertainty, and there's a good dose of that in the present energy market.

    I suppose that if forward pricing into 2024 is at lower levels by this time next year, that might be an incentive for larger suppliers to buy at those prices and offer slightly more reasonable longer term fixed deals that will be attractive to many who  are coming to the end of fixes they've just started now.
  • [Deleted User]
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    Did ofgem ever say how long the SC increases for the company liquidations would last for or is it perpetual?
    Analysts are suggesting that the final bill to move Bulb Energy on will be in excess of £2Bn. Interest has waned to just one potential purchaser, Octopus. Octopus is on record as saying that it will need at least £1Bn from the Government to takeover Bulb’s customer base. Will these costs be passed on to all energy consumers?
  • pochase
    pochase Posts: 3,449 Forumite
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    edited 25 October 2023 at 9:41PM
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    Did ofgem ever say how long the SC increases for the company liquidations would last for or is it perpetual?
    Analysts are suggesting that the final bill to move Bulb Energy on will be in excess of £2Bn. Interest has waned to just one potential purchaser, Octopus. Octopus is on record as saying that it will need at least £1Bn from the Government to takeover Bulb’s customer base. Will these costs be passed on to all energy consumers?
    Good question.

    It either will be covered by all energy users as SOLR process, or by all tax payers. 
  • Alnat1
    Alnat1 Posts: 3,366 Forumite
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    Guess that means the higher SC on electric will continue for longer to cover the costs?
    Barnsley, South Yorkshire
    Solar PV 5.25kWp SW facing (14 x 375 Longi) Lux 3.6kw hybrid inverter and 4.8kw Pylontech battery storage installed March 22
    Octopus Agile/Fixed Outgoing and Tracker gas
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