October price cap electricity cost per kwh

Spoonie_Turtle

QrizB said:

pochase said:

But they do. This is the one Martin was referring to last week, and it is broken down.
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/cornwall-insight-comments-on-its-january-default-tariff-cap-forecast-rising-to-3000-for-a-typical-user/
Maybe another one of let's stick with just one figure like the 54%? This single figures are much nicer for headlines.

Here's a table that breaks those CI forecasts down, with an assumed SC per fuel similar to the current one:

	Q4 2022	Q1 2023	Q2 2023	Q3 2023
Gas SC £	100	100	100	100
Gas price £	1496.11	1503.45	1311.76	1270.19
Gas /kWh p	12.47	12.53	10.93	10.58
Elec SC £	170	170	170	170
Elec price £	1214.52	1229.75	1176.57	1145.53
Elec /kWh p	41.88	42.41	40.57	39.5

Hope this helps.

When I was doing the calculations for stick or fix, I was using 45p for electricity based on an increase of ~51%.  If your breakdown there is anywhere near accurate, we would have overpaid these months then not saved anything from a fix.  (We haven't done anything yet, still on the SVT.)

pochase

You cannot just use 51%. That is the same as the 54% from April that was meaningless.

Assuming that there is no change in standing charge take the electricity figure from the Cornwall Insights press release, deduct the standing charge and divide by the 3100KWh Ofgem uses.

My rate for electricity is a 0.8p higher, but I think that is because of the rate for standing charge I used was slightly lower, gas figure is the same as the one from @Qrizb.

QrizB

Spoonie_Turtle said:

If your breakdown there is anywhere near accurate, we would have overpaid these months then not saved anything from a fix.

All I've done is taken the CI estimates, knocked off the SC and then divided what's left by 12000 (gas) or 2900 (electricity). It's only as valid as the CI estimate is.

pochase said:

My rate for electricity is a 0.8p higher, but I think that is because of the rate for standing charge I used was slightly lower, gas figure is the same as the one from @Qrizb.

My SC is rounded up to the nearest £10 and includes VAT, but is based on the average Ofgem April 22 SC.

QrizB

Bumping this thread to add a link to today's Cornwall Insight predictions for future energy prices and what they translate to, in terms of unit costs, for the next five quarters.

nekr0mantik

Wow so all of 2023 we will have increased charges. Does anyone think it's very unlikely prices will drop more next year and the prediction is usually accurate?

Chrysalis

Is the breakdown assuming more rise hits gas than electric, because thats how it happened on last 2 increases, I remember someone on here predicting rates of 13-14p for gas,

Also whats the basis of the predictions of a drop later in 2023?  As I dont see anything that would cause that, no new gas storage, no new gas sources, still ukraine war, no wholesale regulation and still a volatile open market.  Even in the middle of summer the gas wholesale rates shot up last week.

Ahh yes that todays prediction looks somewhat more realistic although I think it will keep rising rather than stabilising.

Did ofgem ever say how long the SC increases for the company liquidations would last for or is it perpetual?

spot1034

nekr0mantik said:

Wow so all of 2023 we will have increased charges. Does anyone think it's very unlikely prices will drop more next year and the prediction is usually accurate?

I think it will depend on what the prospects are looking forward. If the Russian situation has stabilised a bit (I'm thinking Putin might no longer be there) and politicians in the west can get their act together and be going all out to bring new supplies on line as rapidly as possible, that alone should have a calming effect on markets even if we are still some way from actually achieving that goal. Markets always hate uncertainty, and there's a good dose of that in the present energy market.

I suppose that if forward pricing into 2024 is at lower levels by this time next year, that might be an incentive for larger suppliers to buy at those prices and offer slightly more reasonable longer term fixed deals that will be attractive to many who  are coming to the end of fixes they've just started now.

[Deleted User]

Chrysalis:

Did ofgem ever say how long the SC increases for the company liquidations would last for or is it perpetual?

Analysts are suggesting that the final bill to move Bulb Energy on will be in excess of £2Bn. Interest has waned to just one potential purchaser, Octopus. Octopus is on record as saying that it will need at least £1Bn from the Government to takeover Bulb’s customer base. Will these costs be passed on to all energy consumers?

pochase

[Deleted User] said:

Chrysalis:

Did ofgem ever say how long the SC increases for the company liquidations would last for or is it perpetual?

Analysts are suggesting that the final bill to move Bulb Energy on will be in excess of £2Bn. Interest has waned to just one potential purchaser, Octopus. Octopus is on record as saying that it will need at least £1Bn from the Government to takeover Bulb’s customer base. Will these costs be passed on to all energy consumers?

Good question.

It either will be covered by all energy users as SOLR process, or by all tax payers. 

Alnat1

Guess that means the higher SC on electric will continue for longer to cover the costs?