Leave funds invested and watch it drop or take out and put into bank…??

Woolsery

masonic said:

Woolsery said:

Ciprico said:

Woolsery said:

Spice, you will only get conventional wisdom here.  My experience is that very little of a conventional nature has occurred for the past couple of years. When examined more closely, what most have seen as unfortunate coincidences have turned out to be well-organised obfuscation, allowing the already very rich and influential to take more from the rest of us and place themselves well for the future, more controlled world they wish to establish and lead.

You will be told next I'm a raving loony full of conspiracy theories, but the people I refer to have published their aims and objectives and have such confidence they talk about them openly at their yearly meetings. Their most vociferous spokesperson even boasts of their 'penetration' of most Western cabinets. Looking at the decisions taken in recent times I can believe that.

Western leaders' handling of the recent health 'crisis' was generally so lamentable it persuaded me we're not in conventional times and therefore conventional behaviour may not serve the individual best.

Looking ahead I can see a possibility China will move into Taiwan. Coupled with the inevitable defeat in Ukraine, this would be a dire situation for us, completely altering world trade and severing supply chains. There will be famine; Mr Biden in one of his lucid moments has told us that much, but things probably won't be that severe in the UK. We will just have more empty shelves, rolling power cuts and probably fuel rationing. That doesn't sound like a time of opportunity to me; at least not for the likes of most investors, though I'd expect the arms and pharmaceutical industries to continue prospering and the banks to find new business in relieving people of their unpaid mortgages and becoming landlords on a massive scale.

The eventual aim is a Centralised Digital Currency which has huge advantages for those who want to have people follow policies obediently. When the dollar finally collapes the stage will be set. Maybe then people will look back at our current leaders and ask themselves," How did such a bunch of characters ever get into those positions?" I think I know!

Anyway good luck with your decision. I've had to do similarly, though I'm reasonably diversified. It's a burger!

Woolsery said:

Spice, you will only get conventional wisdom here.  My experience is that very little of a conventional nature has occurred for the past couple of years. When examined more closely, what most have seen as unfortunate coincidences have turned out to be well-organised obfuscation, allowing the already very rich and influential to take more from the rest of us and place themselves well for the future, more controlled world they wish to establish and lead.

You will be told next I'm a raving loony full of conspiracy theories, but the people I refer to have published their aims and objectives and have such confidence they talk about them openly at their yearly meetings. Their most vociferous spokesperson even boasts of their 'penetration' of most Western cabinets. Looking at the decisions taken in recent times I can believe that.

Western leaders' handling of the recent health 'crisis' was generally so lamentable it persuaded me we're not in conventional times and therefore conventional behaviour may not serve the individual best.

Looking ahead I can see a possibility China will move into Taiwan. Coupled with the inevitable defeat in Ukraine, this would be a dire situation for us, completely altering world trade and severing supply chains. There will be famine; Mr Biden in one of his lucid moments has told us that much, but things probably won't be that severe in the UK. We will just have more empty shelves, rolling power cuts and probably fuel rationing. That doesn't sound like a time of opportunity to me; at least not for the likes of most investors, though I'd expect the arms and pharmaceutical industries to continue prospering and the banks to find new business in relieving people of their unpaid mortgages and becoming landlords on a massive scale.

The eventual aim is a Centralised Digital Currency which has huge advantages for those who want to have people follow policies obediently. When the dollar finally collapes the stage will be set. Maybe then people will look back at our current leaders and ask themselves," How did such a bunch of characters ever get into those positions?" I think I know!

Anyway good luck with your decision. I've had to do similarly, though I'm reasonably diversified. It's a burger!

I think most will agree with you that you are a "raving loony full of conspiracy theories" 

Inaccurate quote, but otherwise as expected. I realise it would be beneath you to engage meaningfully. Nice of you to double post my thoughts on this, unwelcome though they were.

You'll find some kindred spirits (at least one) over here: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6275320/economy-crash-stock-market-crash

I've got to read all that to find one? Thanks, but if it's all the same to you, I'll wait for a rainy day!

ranciduk

I wimped out of my VLS60 as soon as Putin invaded

glad I did really as it’s nosedived off a cliff since 

I’d rather it was in a fixed bond 

specially as Putin ain’t nowhere near done with his shenanigans 

bostonerimus

ranciduk said:

I wimped out of my VLS60 as soon as Putin invaded

glad I did really as it’s nosedived off a cliff since 

I’d rather it was in a fixed bond 

specially as Putin ain’t nowhere near done with his shenanigans 

Will you get back in? and if so when?

All this about farmland and metals and timing the market are just efforts to convince people that they can avoid pain and 99.9% of us simply won't. The good news is that there's generally more pleasure than pain as long as you are sensible and have a consistent strategy and a portfolio appropriate to your circumstances. I've invested and rebalanced through multiple down turns and a few crashes. In 2008 I rebalanced my 60-40 portfolio and kept drip feeding money into my pensions and other investments and the result was positive. 

If you did sell before the big drop now might be a good time to get back in...or it might not...

ossie48

My VLS60 is 4 years into a 10 year plan. It was a loose plan. I don't actually need it for anything now or even in 10 years I simply thought it would hopefully 'out do' any bank....It's a six figure amount

I've been 'wavering' slightly over my monthly investments since Putin pulled his stunt so have directed most of my monthly investments since into cash and have booked a couple of holidays instead. I'll get back on the wagon in a few months. 

My father in law has let his investments ride numerous storms since the 90's...he had the wibble in 2008 that he still drips on about but he's pretty well off as a result of just leaving it and not jumping ship.  

dunstonh

glad I did really as it’s nosedived off a cliff since 

No it hasnt.

k6chris

bostonerimus said:

Will you get back in? and if so when?

All this about farmland and metals and timing the market are just efforts to convince people that they can avoid pain and 99.9% of us simply won't. The good news is that there's generally more pleasure than pain as long as you are sensible and have a consistent strategy and a portfolio appropriate to your circumstances. I've invested and rebalanced through multiple down turns and a few crashes. In 2008 I rebalanced my 60-40 portfolio and kept drip feeding money into my pensions and other investments and the result was positive. 

If you did sell before the big drop now might be a good time to get back in...or it might not...

It is easy(ish) to tell when a market is overvalued and a fall is likely.  I have done this a few times in my 30+ year investment journey. However there are two problems:

1)  'Overvalued' markets can still continue to rise for a looooong time. 

2)  Timing your re-entry to the market after the fall has happened.

And a third issue, again from personal experience

3)  Becoming massively overconfident after nailing a market timing event and 'going again'.

Long-term investment success comes from creating a balanced portfolio and letting it do its stuff.  Use an IFA if that helps, stick it all in a VLS (or similar) fund, or create a DIY portfolio, which you rebalance once a year.  If you find yourself fretting, your risk level is less that your portfolio's.  Revisit the balanced portfolio with this new insight.  Then learn to sit on your hands!

ranciduk

dunstonh said:

glad I did really as it’s nosedived off a cliff since 

No it hasnt.

The price analysis for the last 6 months looks far far too ‘cliff’ like for my eyes 

I don’t mind bumps in the road - I don’t do cliffs

[Deleted User]

Hi,

6 months is too short for an investment think long term, here's the 5 year table, look at the 'covid' dip April '20, did you panic then?

dunstonh

ranciduk said:

dunstonh said:

glad I did really as it’s nosedived off a cliff since 

No it hasnt.

The price analysis for the last 6 months looks far far too ‘cliff’ like for my eyes 

I don’t mind bumps in the road - I don’t do cliffs

In which case, you should not return to investing as drops like this are routine.  If you consider this cliff edge then it's just not going to work for you.

This is just a routine middling decline.  2020 was half as much again as now.   2018 was a little less.  This is similar to the 2015/16 fall at this point (in terms of length of the drop and amount).  Go back over the years, and you see them occurring all too frequently.  

Eyeful

ranciduk said:

dunstonh said:

glad I did really as it’s nosedived off a cliff since 

No it hasnt.

The price analysis for the last 6 months looks far far too ‘cliff’ like for my eyes 

I don’t mind bumps in the road - I don’t do cliffs

As a matter of interest, how big a fall in % terms, do you define "a bump in the road" as?

From the HL website, VL 60 has fallen about 14% in the  last 6 months. 

I understand that market corrections between 10% to 20% are not uncommon. How have you been able to avoid previous market corrections? Are you that skilled or just lucky?