How early to book flights

Mike2527

Hi, just looking at whether it’s better to book holiday flights early.   Normally I’d book flights a max of 6 months before the planned break.  However, with the increasing cost of fuel I wonder if it’s sensible to book now?  As an example the flights we booked this year are already £60 more expensive for the corresponding time next year.   Could these prices increase if fuel cost continue to increase? Views?

Thanks, Mike

TELLIT01

Airlines can increase prices for tickets already purchased if fuel prices increase so early purchase is no guarantee.  We generally purchase flights as soon as we have confirmed our accommodation.  That is because it is a small complex and it would be very difficult to get alternative dates with them as the book up 12 months or more ahead of time.

zagfles

General rule is book late but not very last minute for flights to typical holiday destinations, flights to typical business destinations are generally cheaper the earlier you book.

You can check for specific routes here https://www.skyscanner.net/bttb/best-time-to-book-uk - it's based on pre-pandemic but not much seems to have changed IME, the fuel price rises don't seem to have had much effect.

twopenny

It's not only fuel prices. There is high demand for flights at the moment with people desperate to get away.
That demand is likely to continue into next year as restrictions lift (hoping) and a whole extra raft of people who haven't been away join the throng.
However I still expect there to be bargains and sales. This would depend on how tied you are to date of travel and holiday type.

Murphy_The_Cat

For the last 15 years, I've bought flights at the absolute earliest possibility (typically Midnight GMT, but sometimes Midnight in the country where the airline is based) that they have become available - maybe 355 days into the future. On every single occassion, without exception, for me, this has ensured that I've got the flights that I want at the best price (not once have any of the flights that I've purchased dropped in price since I bought them).

For my this upcoming December, I booked my flights at 1 min past midnight on the day that they became available. By 06.00 the next morning, they were over 40% more expensive . With 6 months to go, they have more than doubled again.

Google flights is a handy tool, but they only got to 330 days into the future (IIRC), which isn't much use for an airline that releases tickets 355 days into the future.

zagfles

Murphy_The_Cat said:

For the last 15 years, I've bought flights at the absolute earliest possibility (typically Midnight GMT, but sometimes Midnight in the country where the airline is based) that they have become available - maybe 355 days into the future. On every single occassion, without exception, for me, this has ensured that I've got the flights that I want at the best price (not once have any of the flights that I've purchased dropped in price since I bought them).

For my this upcoming December, I booked my flights at 1 min past midnight on the day that they became available. By 06.00 the next morning, they were over 40% more expensive . With 6 months to go, they have more than doubled again.

Google flights is a handy tool, but they only got to 330 days into the future (IIRC), which isn't much use for an airline that releases tickets 355 days into the future.

You constantly monitor the prices after you've bought the tickets?

I guess this might be because (IIRC) you fly BC, which might follow the business destination price model as (as the name implies) it's aimed at business travellers. Business travellers tend to book late whereas leisure travellers tend to book early, which I suspect is the reason for the trend shown by skyscanner that flights to business destinations tend to rise in price whereas flights to tourist destinations tend to fall.

I've been on 10 flights in the last year, all booked less than 2 weeks before travel, varied in price from £8 to £38 each way (including add ons, seat selection, priority etc). I don't know what price they were earlier but I can't believe they were significantly cheaper!

Murphy_The_Cat

zagfles said:

Murphy_The_Cat said:

For the last 15 years, I've bought flights at the absolute earliest possibility (typically Midnight GMT, but sometimes Midnight in the country where the airline is based) that they have become available - maybe 355 days into the future. On every single occassion, without exception, for me, this has ensured that I've got the flights that I want at the best price (not once have any of the flights that I've purchased dropped in price since I bought them).

For my this upcoming December, I booked my flights at 1 min past midnight on the day that they became available. By 06.00 the next morning, they were over 40% more expensive . With 6 months to go, they have more than doubled again.

Google flights is a handy tool, but they only got to 330 days into the future (IIRC), which isn't much use for an airline that releases tickets 355 days into the future.

You constantly monitor the prices after you've bought the tickets?

I guess this might be because (IIRC) you fly BC, which might follow the business destination price model as (as the name implies) it's aimed at business travellers. Business travellers tend to book late whereas leisure travellers tend to book early, which I suspect is the reason for the trend shown by skyscanner that flights to business destinations tend to rise in price whereas flights to tourist destinations tend to fall.

I've been on 10 flights in the last year, all booked less than 2 weeks before travel, varied in price from £8 to £38 each way (including add ons, seat selection, priority etc). I don't know what price they were earlier but I can't believe they were significantly cheaper!

Yes I do.  I set up a google flights price checker alert for the route that I'm taking and get a notification on a daily basis.  I'm already booked and nothing will change for me, but it is really useful towards booking for future flights.  When BC tickets, the savings using this method can be staggering (I've had Long Haul BC seats ex-eu for the same price as economy seats from UK airports in the past).  The sole reason that I do it, is that I want the best quality flights for my £ - and if I can fly in the front of the plane, rather than the middle, or the back for the same amount, I'm more than happy and willing to put the time in.

For short flights, particularly if I was to fussed where I was going (i.e looking for a weekend away and where is cheap !) I'd follow your system.  If your £8 flight was previously £5, it wouldn't be breaking the bank !

sammynunes

There is no way in the world that booking on schedule release will yield the cheapest seats for a legacy carrier. It would be shockingly bad yield management. Even the low cost carriers have now cottoned on to bumping the prices up on release day....why else do they publicise their flight releases?

zagfles

Murphy_The_Cat said:

zagfles said:

Murphy_The_Cat said:

For the last 15 years, I've bought flights at the absolute earliest possibility (typically Midnight GMT, but sometimes Midnight in the country where the airline is based) that they have become available - maybe 355 days into the future. On every single occassion, without exception, for me, this has ensured that I've got the flights that I want at the best price (not once have any of the flights that I've purchased dropped in price since I bought them).

For my this upcoming December, I booked my flights at 1 min past midnight on the day that they became available. By 06.00 the next morning, they were over 40% more expensive . With 6 months to go, they have more than doubled again.

Google flights is a handy tool, but they only got to 330 days into the future (IIRC), which isn't much use for an airline that releases tickets 355 days into the future.

You constantly monitor the prices after you've bought the tickets?

I guess this might be because (IIRC) you fly BC, which might follow the business destination price model as (as the name implies) it's aimed at business travellers. Business travellers tend to book late whereas leisure travellers tend to book early, which I suspect is the reason for the trend shown by skyscanner that flights to business destinations tend to rise in price whereas flights to tourist destinations tend to fall.

I've been on 10 flights in the last year, all booked less than 2 weeks before travel, varied in price from £8 to £38 each way (including add ons, seat selection, priority etc). I don't know what price they were earlier but I can't believe they were significantly cheaper!

Yes I do.  I set up a google flights price checker alert for the route that I'm taking and get a notification on a daily basis.  I'm already booked and nothing will change for me, but it is really useful towards booking for future flights.  When BC tickets, the savings using this method can be staggering (I've had Long Haul BC seats ex-eu for the same price as economy seats from UK airports in the past).  The sole reason that I do it, is that I want the best quality flights for my £ - and if I can fly in the front of the plane, rather than the middle, or the back for the same amount, I'm more than happy and willing to put the time in.

For short flights, particularly if I was to fussed where I was going (i.e looking for a weekend away and where is cheap !) I'd follow your system.  If your £8 flight was previously £5, it wouldn't be breaking the bank !

Yes it makes sense that BC prices will rise, since most business travellers will book late plus they usually need to be at a particular destination at a particular time and will pay whatever it takes. Whereas a leisure traveller booking late usually has flexibility on time and even destination, and when it comes down to it whether to go or not. A lot of our trips now we're semi retired were just because we happened to see cheap flights to somewhere we fancied going. Plus it was obviously risky booking in advance during COVID.

The trend on the skyscanner tool (link above) is obvious - eg London to Faro (typical leisure travel route) prices are cheaper booking late, London to Frankfurt (typical business route) prices are cheaper booking early.

Murphy_The_Cat

sammynunes said:

There is no way in the world that booking on schedule release will yield the cheapest seats for a legacy carrier. It would be shockingly bad yield management. Even the low cost carriers have now cottoned on to bumping the prices up on release day....why else do they publicise their flight releases?

What doesn't speak, doesn't lie !

My flights with ANA have increased massively from me booking them 1 minute after the price became available (and are still going up on a monthly basis).

My understanding is that there are no many tickets made available to the cheapest "bucket" price and once they have gone, you move to the next available "bucket". Perhaps, possibly, maybe there are 4 tickets available at the most wallet friendly price and I've been fortunate to get them each time !

For the purpose of clarity, these are fully paid for BC seats/beds/suites, not using points, with full longue access and BC baggage allowance with "legacy" airlines, or similar (Singapore, Air NZ, Lufthansa, ANA, AA etc) - not extra legroom seats with Con Air !

My "system" has done we well for 15 years on full service airlines and I'll accry on using the system in the future.