I didn't fix and I don't regret it - see my spreadsheet for proof

Ally_E.

bristolleedsfan said:

Ally_E. said:

I have been thinking about Octopus possibly not offering good enough fixes. Did some research and other fixes are not much better. 

I stand by my choice of not fixing and will keep updating this thread with regular comparisons of my usage vs the fixes that were available from Oct 2021.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6309895/octopus-energy-bonkers-cheap-24-month-fixed-electricity-rate-no-exit-fees-now-withdrawn/p1

Ah yes, would have loved to jumped on that, but Octopus was still sorting my account in the move from Avro. As luck would have it, I moved from an octopus property that was on a fix to a new property supplied by Avro on the day they announced going out of business. It took 2 months of multiple emails and tweets to get the account set up and at that point it was end of November. 

Mstty

With your particular mix of 22,000 gas to 3000 elec then no fix will look attractive until it's too late to get a good fix?

That said you shouldn't be using much gas right now maybe just hot water heating so it could now be a good time to look at a fix for October (not necessarily with Octopus) as you won't actually be using a lot of gas at the higher fixed prices between now and then. Just something to factor in?

In my opinion based on the Ofgem announcement and the revised Cornwall Insights press releae. Latest price cap estimates for October '22 have elec at 38p-41p per kWh and gas 10.5p-12p per kWh so it's a gamble but come October you could be looking at an SVT bill of approx £4K unless you curb your gas usage.

The obvious thing is to reduce your gas usage significantly have you started that process and planning for winter?

  

Sea_Shell

I did do a fix...and I'm hoping I don't regret it!!!

I’ve made up a spreadsheet to compare our “gambled on” EonV12 energy fix against the current cap, and also will then add in the October (and January?) caps, so keep track of how much we’re winning (or losing) by. 

At the moment, we’re 45 days in, and are worse off by £10.50.   So with ~120 days to go until the October cap would have kicked in, we’ll probably be about £40 worse off by then, by which time we will hopefully start to be clawing that all back once the October cap rates are known…and some.

Ultrasonic

Sea_Shell said:

I’ve made up a spreadsheet to compare our “gambled on” EonV12 energy fix against the current cap, and also will then add in the October (and January?) caps, so keep track of how much we’re winning (or losing) by. 

I'm doing the same  . My initial estimate was that by the end of September the fix would cost me about £67 more but I will hopefully get £65.50 to essentially cover this. I've been using less energy than my prediction assumed so far as well. Mine was also one of the last fixes without exit fees so I can bail whenever I choose.

Sea_Shell

Ultrasonic said:

Sea_Shell said:

I’ve made up a spreadsheet to compare our “gambled on” EonV12 energy fix against the current cap, and also will then add in the October (and January?) caps, so keep track of how much we’re winning (or losing) by. 

I'm doing the same  . My initial estimate was that by then end of September the fix would cost me about £67 more but I will hopefully get £65.50 to essentially cover this. I've been using less energy than my prediction assumed so far as well. Mine was also one of the last fixes without exit fees so I can bail whenever I choose.

We've got no exit fees too.   

Since having a new boiler fitted in July (the old one was 30 yrs old*), we've gone from having fairly consistent annual use of 13,000 Gas and 1700 Electric, to an estimated usage (as per last bill) of 9500/1570.   Our quote was based on 10,500/1645.

Our actual 12 months to date usage is 8480/1525.

Tariff use to date is 249/143.


* We have tried to cut down generally, and we only have the hot water on once now in the morning, rather than twice a day (system boiler)

wild666

Ally_E. said:

Hi all, 

There's a lot talk about fixing after the announcement that energy prices will go up in October by >40%. I've seen some saying that not fixing was a bad advice and I want to share my spreadsheet for 3,207kw/h of electricity and 23,040kw/h of gas usage a year. It's a comparison for 1 Apr 22 - 31 March 23 between Octopus SVR tarriff and Octopus cheapest fixed deal available to me called Arsenal 12M Fixed March 2022 v2 in South Eastern region (if I fixed before the news was announced).

So with predicted price rise of around 42% in October and another 2% price rise in January, I'm still £956.09 better off staying on capped tariff.



And even if I fixed much earlier and did it in December 2021, I'm still better off by not fixing, see below:



P.S. I know some of you will say it's a huge gas usage, yes totally agree and working on it. Electricity already slashed by 2.5kw/h a day, but I used historic figures for the calculation as that's the concrete data I do have at the moment and if I save even more money, it's a bonus.

This is obviously some crystal ball gazing backed up by Cornwall Insights data.

I was thinking of fixing just before Russia invaded the Ukraine I decided to fix then got in from a night out and the prices had already rocketed as Russia had invaded the Ukraine. That meant that the fix was off, Octopus had raised their prices in the 5 hours I had being out.

wild666

With an energy fixed price deal for however many months or years the deal is for the company is asking the user to pay more at the beginning and they hope the prices will not increase much beyond the prices they are offering the fixed deal at, if at all. 
If the prices per kWh and possibly a higher SC are lower at the end of the deal the energy company wins, if they are higher they hope that the time the user paid more per kWh and the SC means they don't lose out. 

Mstty

That is true now but not always. Fixed deals have in the past been cheaper that the capped rate.

Given the signs of the impending October Cap a fair amount of deals this summer are 10-20% below the expected increase and because it is summer energy usage is low so taking a deal now may mean a hefty saving over the next year depending on the household energy usage.

Most can't see the wood for the trees and I am not surprised. I just rely on the spreadsheet and the info to hand at the time and take the best guess.

Ally_E.

Mstty said:

With your particular mix of 22,000 gas to 3000 elec then no fix will look attractive until it's too late to get a good fix?

That said you shouldn't be using much gas right now maybe just hot water heating so it could now be a good time to look at a fix for October (not necessarily with Octopus) as you won't actually be using a lot of gas at the higher fixed prices between now and then. Just something to factor in?

In my opinion based on the Ofgem announcement and the revised Cornwall Insights press releae. Latest price cap estimates for October '22 have elec at 38p-41p per kWh and gas 10.5p-12p per kWh so it's a gamble but come October you could be looking at an SVT bill of approx £4K unless you curb your gas usage.

The obvious thing is to reduce your gas usage significantly have you started that process and planning for winter?

  

Thanks for the suggestion, I'll do another calculation focusing on lower usage during the summer. Currently using around 5.5kw of gas a day for hot water and cooking.

My gas usage is pretty good for the property already, the heating system set to 50 degrees, temperature of 18 during the day and 15 during the night. Not really willing to cut it any lower than that for comfort. Insulation is a long term plan, but a huge investment for external wall insulation, which we can't afford at the moment. Doing the little things like draft proofing, getting chimney sheep etc Also will focus on heating the person and not the house when it's tempting to up the temperature to 19 while working from home.

I had a peek at neighbours' usage on the moneysupermarket and we're doing really well with our 22,000kw of gas, one of the neighbours is using 42,000, yikes!

And yes, looking at paying £4,000 for SVT, but with fixed deals it comes down to £4,300-4,500. 

Petriix

Well I'm really happy that I fixed at 5p/24p on Octopus Go in January. I'm sure the people who fixed at 5p/14p are even happier. I only wish I'd fixed my gas for 3p for 2 years in August.