I didn't fix and I don't regret it - see my spreadsheet for proof

Ally_E.

Hi all, 

There's a lot talk about fixing after the announcement that energy prices will go up in October by >40%. I've seen some saying that not fixing was a bad advice and I want to share my spreadsheet for 3,207kw/h of electricity and 23,040kw/h of gas usage a year. It's a comparison for 1 Apr 22 - 31 March 23 between Octopus SVR tarriff and Octopus cheapest fixed deal available to me called Arsenal 12M Fixed March 2022 v2 in South Eastern region (if I fixed before the news was announced).

So with predicted price rise of around 42% in October and another 2% price rise in January, I'm still £956.09 better off staying on capped tariff.



And even if I fixed much earlier and did it in December 2021, I'm still better off by not fixing, see below:



P.S. I know some of you will say it's a huge gas usage, yes totally agree and working on it. Electricity already slashed by 2.5kw/h a day, but I used historic figures for the calculation as that's the concrete data I do have at the moment and if I save even more money, it's a bonus.

This is obviously some crystal ball gazing backed up by Cornwall Insights data.

Ultrasonic

In your comparison have you tried to factor in particularly how your gas usage is distributed through the year? As is presumably far more after October than before?

Ally_E.

Ultrasonic said:

In your comparison have you tried to factor in particularly how your gas usage is distributed through the year? As is presumably far more after October than before?

Yes, I referenced monthly usage for each price period. Haven't been in this property the whole year, but this is based on usage since September last year, plus extra electricity allocated for the summer aircon use, which hopefully I won't need as this house stays much cooler (solid brick walls) than previous (timber frame).

Mstty

What were the kWh prices and SV for each svt and fix in your region?

Might just be a really bad fix offering.

Ultrasonic

Early March was the point that lots of fixed tariffs shot up in price and I think the above likely reflects this. A comparison for a fix taken out in say January would likely tell a different story. I took out a fix at the end of February and this will work out cheaper for me over a year than the SVT if the unit prices jump by 40% in October.

I'm not criticising prevailing advice in January here. Russia invading Ukraine simply wasn't being factored in then.

Ally_E.

Mstty said:

What were the kWh prices and SV for each svt and fix in your region?

Might just be a really bad fix offering.

March 22 fix: gas 27.22p s/c 12.8p kw/h ; elect 24.03p s/c 42.8p kw/h
April 22 SVR: gas 26.1p s/c 7.3185p kw/h ; elect 45.34p s/c 29.48p kw/h

Ultrasonic said:

Early March was the point that lots of fixed tariffs shot up in price and I think the above likely reflects this. A comparison for a fix taken out in say January would likely tell a different story. I took out a fix at the end of February and this will work out cheaper for me over a year than the SVT if the unit prices jump by 40% in October.

I'm not criticising prevailing advice in January here. Russia invading Ukraine simply wasn't being factored in then.

I have included a fix in January above as well, still cheaper to be on SVR. £2,834.91 on SVR vs £3,287.46 on fix if taken out in Jan.

Mstty

It all makes sense Octopus have no competitive fixed rates. They are good for other things but the fixed rates are shockingly high.

Most others are offering 9-10p gas and 34-36p elec

If you are not tied to octopus for an electric vehicle then personally I would leave them and snap up a fix somewhere else

Ally_E.

Mstty said:

It all makes sense Octopus have no competitive fixed rates. They are good for other things but the fixed rates are shockingly high.

Most others are offering 9-10p gas and 34-36p elec

If you are not tied to octopus for an electric vehicle then personally I would leave them and snap up a fix somewhere else

If you have any recommendations which companies to look at, that would be much appreciated. Nothing in energy club comparison table comes even close, had a look at E.ON Next and they don't accept new customers. I was on a good fix with octopus, but had to move house end of September and all s*** hit the fan.

agentcain

I never really understood the benefit vs cost of fixing. 

Surely when you commit to a contract of X length, the price should be lower compared to a day by day basis one. Take comms for example. You have no-contract SIMs costing £££ and then you have the option for a contract for ££ but 12-24 months.

If you're committed to stay with an energy supplier for X months, under penalty, then surely this supplier should be able to source cheaper energy for you as a broker for this period. Instead, they offer you a fixed increased cost with the argument being "you have the certainty of cost against the variable rate and for that we charge you more"
One would argue that they are doing this against the future capped rate, so the offered fix is actually lower. And yet, the comms providers don't know how much their obligations in the future will be. They offer you a better deal now, given what we know now.

What? Why? How? You should be awarded for allowing your supplier to better plan its future, not the other way around.

BUFF

agentcain said:

I never really understood the benefit vs cost of fixing. 

Surely when you commit to a contract of X length, the price should be lower compared to a day by day basis one. Take comms for example. You have no-contract SIMs costing £££ and then you have the option for a contract for ££ but 12-24 months.

If you're committed to stay with an energy supplier for X months, under penalty, then surely this supplier should be able to source cheaper energy for you as a broker for this period. Instead, they offer you a fixed increased cost with the argument being "you have the certainty of cost against the variable rate and for that we charge you more"
One would argue that they are doing this against the future capped rate, so the offered fix is actually lower. And yet, the comms providers don't know how much their obligations in the future will be. They offer you a better deal now, given what we know now.

What? Why? How? You should be awarded for allowing your supplier to better plan its future, not the other way around.

& this is how it worked for years.

& then we had a global pandemic for a couple of years & then a war involving a major energy supplier - this totally disrupted the market in terms of demand & supply & threw all previous forecasts into disarray. 
Now, because of the cap which was originally brought in to stop suppliers overcharging, we are in the unusual position of SVT being cheaper than fixed because the suppliers are legally hamstrung from passing on the current full costs on those rates. Without the cap our variable rates would be higher.

Ultrasonic

agentcain said:

I never really understood the benefit vs cost of fixing. 

Surely when you commit to a contract of X length, the price should be lower compared to a day by day basis one. Take comms for example. You have no-contract SIMs costing £££ and then you have the option for a contract for ££ but 12-24 months.

If you're committed to stay with an energy supplier for X months, under penalty, then surely this supplier should be able to source cheaper energy for you as a broker for this period. Instead, they offer you a fixed increased cost with the argument being "you have the certainty of cost against the variable rate and for that we charge you more"
One would argue that they are doing this against the future capped rate, so the offered fix is actually lower. And yet, the comms providers don't know how much their obligations in the future will be. They offer you a better deal now, given what we know now.

What? Why? How? You should be awarded for allowing your supplier to better plan its future, not the other way around.

At the point anyone takes out a fix they are doing so in the judgement that it WILL be cheaper than not committing to a long term contract. You also can't simply judge whether this will be true or not based just on current prices when a fix is agreed to.