£50k or 2 x £25k premium bonds?

Albermarle

RG2015 said:

Albermarle said:

My wife has won £175 made up of 7 x £25, which works out at 1.10% p.a. average. Not sure if it is significant but last month she won two lots of £25. 

It isn't 

Nebulous2 said:

I also subscribe to the competition as a bit of fun theory. I like the reinvestment as well. We bought ours just over a year ago, and I’m well ahead, courtesy of a £1000 win.... 

If I remember correctly someone with the full £50K will win a £1000 prize on average once in a lifetime, so you have been lucky!

What are the odds of that happening again?

As pointed out above, the chance of a prize in any draw is unaffected by what happened in previous draws.

I know the true mathematical answer, but in my mind if feels like the chance of winning big more than once is less than chance of winning big only once.

It is called the 'gamblers fallacy' 

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect, since past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.

tommyedinburgh

I know the true mathematical answer, but in my mind if feels like the chance of winning big more than once is less than chance of winning big only once.

I feel like this as well, not ignoring the number crunching, just the feeling I get. 

tommyedinburgh

It is called the 'gamblers fallacy' 

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect, since past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.

There you are, very much a misconception. I am glad I am not alone in feeling this.

Albermarle

tommyedinburgh said:

It is called the 'gamblers fallacy' 

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect, since past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.

There you are, very much a misconception. I am glad I am not alone in feeling this.

It is human nature really. I have a reasonably logical, numerate mind but I still think that after a string of losers at the races, the next one has got to win 

It is not a real problem on a small scale, but you have to try and be more rational when making bigger decison.

P1Fanatic

tommyedinburgh said:

I know the true mathematical answer, but in my mind if feels like the chance of winning big more than once is less than chance of winning big only once.

I feel like this as well, not ignoring the number crunching, just the feeling I get. 

Its like choosing lottery numbers as 1,2,3,4,5,6 has statistically the same chances of appearing as any other combination but who would honestly pick them? Likewise if you saw certain numbers winning the jackpot would you then go and pick the very same numbers the next week because statistically it makes no difference?

Notepad_Phil

P1Fanatic said:

tommyedinburgh said:

I know the true mathematical answer, but in my mind if feels like the chance of winning big more than once is less than chance of winning big only once.

I feel like this as well, not ignoring the number crunching, just the feeling I get. 

Its like choosing lottery numbers as 1,2,3,4,5,6 has statistically the same chances of appearing as any other combination but who would honestly pick them? Likewise if you saw certain numbers winning the jackpot would you then go and pick the very same numbers the next week because statistically it makes no difference?

I seem to remember hearing on some tv or radio programme that more than the average number of punters choose those exact numbers, so if they did ever come up then those punters are likely be very disappointed with the amount they'll receive.

Nebulous2

P1Fanatic said:

tommyedinburgh said:

I know the true mathematical answer, but in my mind if feels like the chance of winning big more than once is less than chance of winning big only once.

I feel like this as well, not ignoring the number crunching, just the feeling I get. 

Its like choosing lottery numbers as 1,2,3,4,5,6 has statistically the same chances of appearing as any other combination but who would honestly pick them? Likewise if you saw certain numbers winning the jackpot would you then go and pick the very same numbers the next week because statistically it makes no difference?

I have the same recollection as Notepad Phil - in fact my, possibly erroneous, memory is that over 10000 people pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 every week. 

Albermarle

Also if all the numbers are between 1 and 31 , there will likely be more winners as many put birthday dates.

El_Torro

There are various stories on the internet about people winning the lottery more than once. So it happens. I remember reading some years ago about a man who won the lottery in the US (if I remember correctly it was the Colorado lottery) in the 1970s and then again a couple of decades later. Unlikely that they used the same numbers each time, probably just bought a random ticket.

My real question in situations like this though is: If you've won a multi million pound / dollar / euro / whatever prize on the lottery why keep playing?

Eco_Miser

RG2015 said:

Albermarle said:

My wife has won £175 made up of 7 x £25, which works out at 1.10% p.a. average. Not sure if it is significant but last month she won two lots of £25. 

It isn't 

Nebulous2 said:

I also subscribe to the competition as a bit of fun theory. I like the reinvestment as well. We bought ours just over a year ago, and I’m well ahead, courtesy of a £1000 win.... 

If I remember correctly someone with the full £50K will win a £1000 prize on average once in a lifetime, so you have been lucky!

What are the odds of that happening again?

As pointed out above, the chance of a prize in any draw is unaffected by what happened in previous draws.

I know the true mathematical answer, but in my mind if feels like the chance of winning big more than once is less than chance of winning big only once.

That's because it is - until the first big win has happened.

Using the simpler example of dice:

Chance of throwing a 6 = 1/6

Chance of throwing 6 twice in a row = 1/36

Chance of throwing 6 having just thrown a 6 = 1/6