Winter 2022 price cap predictions - same for both electric and gas?

BUFF

Off the top of my head, no. I do a lot of browsing in a month.

Mstty

That's why I have started listing sources with my exerts and info that I band about.

I think it's wise to back any figures up with a source.

Anyway if you find it that will be much appreciated to update my latest info thanks👍

locky123

The reason I would like to know the current best guess for the October increase for each energy is to try and work out if a fixed deal is worth it.  An increase of 20% in October for electric is still less than now taking out the BG fixed deal. I think an October increase >23% for electric makes their fixed deal possibly worth taking.

QrizB

Mstty said:

cornwall insights predictions and they got as close as 3% for the April 22 one

Take Cornwall Insights figures with a pinch of salt. Their final forecast might have been within 3% but they didn't publish that one until the pricing period was almost over. It's like guessing the winning Grand National horse after the final jump.

In October 2021 they were forecasting an April 22 cap of £1660. 16% out.

In December 2021 they were forecasting £1865. 5% out.

Mstty

QrizB said:

Mstty said:

cornwall insights predictions and they got as close as 3% for the April 22 one

Take Cornwall Insights figures with a pinch of salt. Their final forecast might have been within 3% but they didn't publish that one until the pricing period was almost over. It's like guessing the winning Grand National horse after the final jump.

In October 2021 they were forecasting an April 22 cap of £1660. 16% out.

In December 2021 they were forecasting £1865. 5% out.

Duly noted

So where are you currently with your own personal forecast?

25-30% 

QrizB

Mstty said:

QrizB said:

Mstty said:

cornwall insights predictions and they got as close as 3% for the April 22 one

Take Cornwall Insights figures with a pinch of salt. Their final forecast might have been within 3% but they didn't publish that one until the pricing period was almost over. It's like guessing the winning Grand National horse after the final jump.

In October 2021 they were forecasting an April 22 cap of £1660. 16% out.

In December 2021 they were forecasting £1865. 5% out.

Duly noted

So where are you currently with your own personal forecast?
25-30% 

I'm currently guesstimating a price rise of around 15%, for a £2266 headline cap. Say +/- 5%, £100, on that.

At the same stage through the pricing period last time (mid-November, so 3.5 months into the 6-month period) my mid-case estimate was £1950. That was almost certainly blind luck!

QrizB

locky123 said:

Does anyone have a reference to what the forecast price increases will be for each energy supply, as the percentage increase may not be the same for both electric and gas?

OP I'm going out on a limb here but it's currently looking like gas could be up ~1p to 8.5p/kWh and electricity up ~2.5p to 31p/kWh. I'm assuming standing charges won't change appreciably (this could be a wrong assumption).

locky123

I like your crystal ball's forecast, so about 9% increase in electric. Question is are wholesale prices decreasing due to less demand at this time of year, so will later increase?

QrizB

locky123 said:

I like your crystal ball's forecast, so about 9% increase in electric. Question is are wholesale prices decreasing due to less demand at this time of year, so will later increase?

The October price cap will be based on average wholesale prices from the start of February to the end of July, so won't be affected by any rises during August or September.

Those August & September prices will, one way or another, be reflected in later price caps.

MWT

QrizB said:

Those August & September prices will, one way or another, be reflected in later price caps.

... and with the proposed change to quarterly cap reviews, that could be as early as January '23 unfortunately timed to match what is often the most expensive quarter of the year......