Stock pickers suffer worst month in 20 years

GazzaBloom

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Thrugelmir said:

UK markets have bucked the trend and been rising.  . 

UK needs a lot of rising to do to catch up.

That was then. This conversation is about Q1 of 2022. The negative mantra towards the UK never desists though. Just hope that investors are aware of the challenges faced across the pond. 

The FTSE100 is bucking the rocky start to the year because it is heavy in bank stocks who benefit from the current and expected rising interest rates and BP and Shell are benefiting from rocketing energy prices. It's up 2% YTD but may well be the standout index this year, who knows?

The Blackrock UK Equity Index I follow, which tracks the FTSE All Share Index is a couple of percent up due to the leading players in the 100 and dividend reinvestment but the wider UK market isn't so rosy with the FTSE250 down 11% YTD and SmallCap down 7% YTD. 

The UK and Europe faces the same challenges as the US, soaring inflation, commodity shortages, supply chain issues, huge government debt and the need to raise interest rates with a prospect of tipping into recession if there is a monetary policy misstep, but with the added issue for Europe and the UK is the war next door.

I'm not sure there is a particularly comfortable place for investments at present and bonds look ugly, so it's head down into the wind and hold all positions in index stock funds for me and grind out the next couple of years. I don't hold any bonds and was planning to start buying this year but will build up cash instead I think, certainly until interest rates peak and stabilise.

coastline

The chart most see without the dividends this is where the negatives come from. Note the year 2000.

FTSE-100-Chart-1996-2015.png (571×351) (ukvalueinvestor.com)

With dividends. Better.

25851386-8101459-image-a-7_1583954468701.jpg (634×451) (dailymail.co.uk)

I've posted this before so we'll turn the clock back to the year 2000. The dotcom boom and Vodaphone is now valued at 15% of the FTSE. The next stock is valued at half that so we have two stocks in the index with over 22% at 6900 that's heading for 1500 points on the index. Index today stands over 7500.

BBC NEWS | Business | The rapid rise of Vodafone

Since then we've had a major change in those valuations and many of the big guns went ex growth. That's a disaster for single stocks with high P/E ratios. Most of them dominated the index. Banks , Oils , Telecoms. Share values slumped. The link below shows this and since 2007 onwards P/E 's in the UK have been near the 12-15 mark. This is where value comes into play today. At the end of the day the UK index was in a far worse position than the US today. The US might be dominated by some mega caps but earnings are improving so nowhere as bad.

FTSE+100+trailing+PE+chart.JPG (908×506) (bp.blogspot.com)

FQDsp73WQAAEacx (528×261) (twimg.com)

There's always been domination by 10 stocks.

Annotation-2020-07-01-220328.jpg (1413×616) (awealthofcommonsense.com)

Thrugelmir

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Thrugelmir said:

UK markets have bucked the trend and been rising.  . 

UK needs a lot of rising to do to catch up.

That was then. This conversation is about Q1 of 2022. The negative mantra towards the UK never desists though. Just hope that investors are aware of the challenges faced across the pond. 

The FTSE100 is bucking the rocky start to the year because it is heavy in bank stocks who benefit from the current and expected rising interest rates and BP and Shell are benefiting from rocketing energy prices. It's up 2% YTD but may well be the standout index this year, who knows?

The Blackrock UK Equity Index I follow, which tracks the FTSE All Share Index is a couple of percent up due to the leading players in the 100 and dividend reinvestment but the wider UK market isn't so rosy with the FTSE250 down 11% YTD and SmallCap down 7% YTD. 

The UK and Europe faces the same challenges as the US, soaring inflation, commodity shortages, supply chain issues, huge government debt and the need to raise interest rates with a prospect of tipping into recession if there is a monetary policy misstep, but with the added issue for Europe and the UK is the war next door.

I'm not sure there is a particularly comfortable place for investments at present and bonds look ugly, so it's head down into the wind and hold all positions in index stock funds for me and grind out the next couple of years. I don't hold any bonds and was planning to start buying this year but will build up cash instead I think, certainly until interest rates peak and stabilise.

I started buying Shell in July 2021 , currently has returned 44%.  Was up over 30% even before the war in Ukraine started. Trimmed my exposure a little since. The negative mantra's make for investment opportunities. Constantly research, digest and follow your gut instinct. Personally I've never held a tracker for any part of the UK market. Too many companies that I don't want to hold. Passive investing is still relatively new in a broad context. Far from convinced it's suitable for every market. 

coastline

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Thrugelmir said:

UK markets have bucked the trend and been rising.  . 

UK needs a lot of rising to do to catch up.

That was then. This conversation is about Q1 of 2022. The negative mantra towards the UK never desists though. Just hope that investors are aware of the challenges faced across the pond. 

The FTSE100 is bucking the rocky start to the year because it is heavy in bank stocks who benefit from the current and expected rising interest rates and BP and Shell are benefiting from rocketing energy prices. It's up 2% YTD but may well be the standout index this year, who knows?

The Blackrock UK Equity Index I follow, which tracks the FTSE All Share Index is a couple of percent up due to the leading players in the 100 and dividend reinvestment but the wider UK market isn't so rosy with the FTSE250 down 11% YTD and SmallCap down 7% YTD. 

The UK and Europe faces the same challenges as the US, soaring inflation, commodity shortages, supply chain issues, huge government debt and the need to raise interest rates with a prospect of tipping into recession if there is a monetary policy misstep, but with the added issue for Europe and the UK is the war next door.

I'm not sure there is a particularly comfortable place for investments at present and bonds look ugly, so it's head down into the wind and hold all positions in index stock funds for me and grind out the next couple of years. I don't hold any bonds and was planning to start buying this year but will build up cash instead I think, certainly until interest rates peak and stabilise.

I started buying Shell in July 2021 , currently has returned 44%.  Was up over 30% even before the war in Ukraine started. Trimmed my exposure a little since. The negative mantra's make for investment opportunities. Constantly research, digest and follow your gut instinct. Personally I've never held a tracker for any part of the UK market. Too many companies that I don't want to hold. Passive investing is still relatively new in a broad context. Far from convinced it's suitable for every market. 

That's the kind of thing I do buy stocks off the boil as there's always opportunities. As I've said before I don't get heavily into reading accounts just the general picture. Read the news about the stock and look at the forward earnings which are available on most financial websites. My entry points are normally based on TA and the tea leaves. Yes I know it will be dismissed but that's me. Put it this way I'd rather be buying with the heat off than on. Shares as you know can move 50% in a year. I have a few on the radar NXT , JDW , BME to name a few. Never ending really. Regarding trackers and funds most investors will be going in that direction and you can't blame them. When they see the FTSE returns in the last 10 years then it's obvious they'll comment .

GazzaBloom

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Thrugelmir said:

UK markets have bucked the trend and been rising.  . 

UK needs a lot of rising to do to catch up.

That was then. This conversation is about Q1 of 2022. The negative mantra towards the UK never desists though. Just hope that investors are aware of the challenges faced across the pond. 

The FTSE100 is bucking the rocky start to the year because it is heavy in bank stocks who benefit from the current and expected rising interest rates and BP and Shell are benefiting from rocketing energy prices. It's up 2% YTD but may well be the standout index this year, who knows?

The Blackrock UK Equity Index I follow, which tracks the FTSE All Share Index is a couple of percent up due to the leading players in the 100 and dividend reinvestment but the wider UK market isn't so rosy with the FTSE250 down 11% YTD and SmallCap down 7% YTD. 

The UK and Europe faces the same challenges as the US, soaring inflation, commodity shortages, supply chain issues, huge government debt and the need to raise interest rates with a prospect of tipping into recession if there is a monetary policy misstep, but with the added issue for Europe and the UK is the war next door.

I'm not sure there is a particularly comfortable place for investments at present and bonds look ugly, so it's head down into the wind and hold all positions in index stock funds for me and grind out the next couple of years. I don't hold any bonds and was planning to start buying this year but will build up cash instead I think, certainly until interest rates peak and stabilise.

I started buying Shell in July 2021 , currently has returned 44%.  Was up over 30% even before the war in Ukraine started. Trimmed my exposure a little since. The negative mantra's make for investment opportunities. Constantly research, digest and follow your gut instinct. Personally I've never held a tracker for any part of the UK market. Too many companies that I don't want to hold. Passive investing is still relatively new in a broad context. Far from convinced it's suitable for every market. 

I agree but for those of use without the time or savvy to stock pick it's an alternative to higher fee managed funds, although some well chosen managed funds are likely to match or exceed the indexes.