Stock pickers suffer worst month in 20 years

talexuser

Thrugelmir said:

UK markets have bucked the trend and been rising.  . 

Interestingly I moved out of my UK funds after the Brexit vote and went global instead which worked out well during the US bull run, and somewhat less capital preservation which was good during the pandemic swings. I kept one UK fund in the ISA (Evenload Income which had done me very well, off the boil now) and one UK in the unwrapped Finsbury Growth and Income which has turned out to be a dog, 2.5% price increase in 6 years.

UK needs a lot of rising to do to catch up.

GazzaBloom

talexuser said:

Thrugelmir said:

UK markets have bucked the trend and been rising.  . 

Interestingly I moved out of my UK funds after the Brexit vote and went global instead which worked out well during the US bull run, and somewhat less capital preservation which was good during the pandemic swings. I kept one UK fund in the ISA (Evenload Income which had done me very well, off the boil now) and one UK in the unwrapped Finsbury Growth and Income which has turned out to be a dog, 2.5% price increase in 6 years.

UK needs a lot of rising to do to catch up.

Agreed, 1 quarter or so of exceptional UK market growth doesn't make up for years of !!!!!! poor returns

aroominyork

GazzaBloom said:

masonic said:

The only surprising aspect of this is that it is news to anyone. They might as well have made the headline "Shock! Horror! Investments that soar highest in rising markets tumble farthest in falling markets." A generation of investors are simply learning about another part of the market cycle for the first time.

Agreed, if only the Wall Street professional stock pickers read the MSE forum and listened to the slightly condescending voices on here that often refer to "a generation of investors" is a mildly disparaging tone. 

People's tones will come over differently and might sometimes sound condascending, but take the rough with the smooth.* As a new generation of investor who started to DIY in 2017, it is good to constantly be reminded that this time it is not different... that the markets will not keep soaring... that value investing is not dead... that the bond bull will come to a halt eventually (no need to be reminded of that one any more). Luckily I have made no serious mistakes in my investing, but over the last couple of years I have gradually de-risked. Although I may not have made as much as if I had invested more aggresively, it has been the right thing to do and I am glad for the comments of people on here that made me accept that investing is not - as it may seem to some of the new generation - a one way bet.

* though, to be fair, I have sometimes commented on tone and might again

coastline

With the FTSE it all depends where the data point starts. Over recent years it's underperformed as far back as 10 years ago that's including dividends. If you've been invested since1985 then there isn't much in it. The chart setting will stretch back to 1986 ?

Chart Tool | Trustnet

FTSE versus VEVE.L over the last year.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Some of those big guns have gone to the moon recently although not like some US growth shares.

FTSE All-Share Index Ranking (stockchallenge.co.uk)

I can understand posters getting concerned about 50% plus allocations to the US markets but it's hard to bet against them. Go with it I say with a global tracker and a few other funds for the ride.
Looking at the forecasts for the US the revenues and earnings are still going up.

xB0eytQp (900×536) (twimg.com)

Another to look at. The forward P/E's of the mega caps in green fig 8 are falling all the time . Not as overvalued as some make out. Nowhere near the dot com boom. Marks and Spencer traded on similar P/E when it was the darling of the city.

zavFR0Ql (859×1071) (twimg.com)

Thrugelmir

talexuser said:

Thrugelmir said:

UK markets have bucked the trend and been rising.  . 

UK needs a lot of rising to do to catch up.

That was then. This conversation is about Q1 of 2022. The negative mantra towards the UK never desists though. Just hope that investors are aware of the challenges faced across the pond. 

Thrugelmir

GazzaBloom said:

masonic said:

The only surprising aspect of this is that it is news to anyone. They might as well have made the headline "Shock! Horror! Investments that soar highest in rising markets tumble farthest in falling markets." A generation of investors are simply learning about another part of the market cycle for the first time.

Agreed, if only the Wall Street professional stock pickers read the MSE forum and listened to the slightly condescending voices on here that often refer to "a generation of investors" is a mildly disparaging tone. 

They'd learn very little from reading these forums. 

GeoffTF

coastline said:

With the FTSE it all depends where the data point starts. Over recent years it's underperformed as far back as 10 years ago that's including dividends. If you've been invested since1985 then there isn't much in it. The chart setting will stretch back to 1986 ?

Chart Tool | Trustnet

FTSE versus VEVE.L over the last year.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

The FTSE 100 pays big dividends. You need to look at total returns. Morningstar shows VUKE nearly 5% ahead of VWRL over the last year. It has been 10% ahead at some points.

coastline

GeoffTF said:

coastline said:

With the FTSE it all depends where the data point starts. Over recent years it's underperformed as far back as 10 years ago that's including dividends. If you've been invested since1985 then there isn't much in it. The chart setting will stretch back to 1986 ?

Chart Tool | Trustnet

FTSE versus VEVE.L over the last year.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

The FTSE 100 pays big dividends. You need to look at total returns. Morningstar shows VUKE nearly 5% ahead of VWRL over the last year. It has been 10% ahead at some points.

The Trustnet chart is total returns and there's not much in it over the last year. This year the FTSE has held up well without doubt. The likes of BP, AZN , RDSA the big guns have gone up. There's no getting away from the poor returns in the last 10 years just stretch the Trustnet link out to show that. Things get better after that if you've been invested since the 1980's-90's. We can cherry pick all day long about data points. FTSE and VEVE if you throw in 3% dividend then yes it's just ahead.  Of course we are talking indices and trackers. Some UK funds will have outperformed there's no doubt. Share picking well that's the same in the US as the UK you need to be good at it. The majority of posters on here won't go near stock picking although it doesn't bother me as I do it.

BP - Stock Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com)

AstraZeneca | AZN - Stock Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com)

Royal Dutch Shell | RDSA - Stock Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com)

tebbins

The turning point seems to have been around 2013, just before the 2014 fall in commodity prices. Since then the UK has slightly underperformed the rest of the world excluding the US, and the US has really pulled up global indices since around the same time. That said there are some posters who assert this underperformance has been going on for much longer, though I struggle to see evidence of that.

Thrugelmir

tebbins said:

The turning point seems to have been around 2013, just before the 2014 fall in commodity prices. Since then the UK has slightly underperformed the rest of the world excluding the US, and the US has really pulled up global indices since around the same time. That said there are some posters who assert this underperformance has been going on for much longer, though I struggle to see evidence of that.

Long term performance of a smaller companies fund such as MTU over a 25 year period compares well to holding a US equity fund over the same period. 

The fall of META shows how quickly gains can be reversed. Once a high performing stock falls out of favour. Indices are in some ways a blunt instrument. As with hindsight the detail is lost in the noise. Unless you've traded through the period it simply becomes a numbers game. History will gloss over the influence of QE when reviewing stock market performance.