October Price Cap

Flight3287462

Here is the first guesstimate I have seen for next Octobers price cap.  REMEMBER this could be wildly inaccurate but it might be useful when looking at fixed rates going forward.  Personally as we stand now I think it may be slightly cautious, but then again the government could intervene to cushion any rise.

Ultrasonic

Here's another recent prediction (but we're so far out the uncertainty is HUGE):

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/jump-in-energy-prices-leaves-price-cap-predictions-at-over-2900-a-year/

QrizB

Anyone who can accurately forcast the October cap should take up commodity trading. By October you'll be surveying the coast of your private island from the deck of your superyacht.

Flight3287462

QrizB said:

Anyone who can accurately forcast the October cap should take up commidity trading. By October you'll be surveying the coast of your private island from the deck of your superyacht.

I think this gives a clue to where we are heading the gas price from now to September.  Historically these summer prices should be lower but across Europe gas storage levels are very low and need replenishing, anything could happen re Russian gas to to Europe but I don't see the taps suddenly being opened to increase supply.

As for the super yacht there will be a few deals to be had 

QrizB

Flight3287462 said:

QrizB said:

Anyone who can accurately forcast the October cap should take up commidity trading. By October you'll be surveying the coast of your private island from the deck of your superyacht.

I think this gives a clue to where we are heading the gas price from now to September.

The problem with gas futures is that, by design, they vary.

A month ago that very same table would have shown prices below 200p/therm. A week ago, they were around 600p/therm. You can't draw any meaningful conclusion from a snapshot.

What will gas actually turn out to cost? I've no idea.

Sea_Shell

You could always work on the basis that the October cap will be £5000 pa, and then you will be pleasantly surprised (hopefully) when it comes in at less than that. 

Bread might be £3 a loaf by then too....who knows!!! 

Flight3287462

Everything hinges on this war, if Ukraine don't come to the table soon and agree to stay out of NATO and EU etc then I would suggest the price of gas will not be coming down anytime soon and things could still escalate very quickly.

jimexbox

Our government is there to help protect UK citizens in times of crisis. It needs to step up to the plate. A lot of folk will be struggling in April. October could be catastrophic. 

Shedman

Interesting document just issued by Ofgem re potential changes to observation window (ie months used) for determining future caps.  Have only skimmed so not sure what implications might be and whether they would be favourable or not

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2022-03/Updated%20guidance%20on%20treatment%20of%20price%20indexation%20in%20future%20cap%20proposals1647277779834.pdf

MWT

Shedman said:

Interesting document just issued by Ofgem re potential changes to observation window (ie months used) for determining future caps.  Have only skimmed so not sure what implications might be and whether they would be favourable or not

Looks like the most obvious shift is that we will not know the new cap figures until September.

The impact of the changes in weighting are difficult to predict.

Staffordian11

There was talk recently of the capping period being reduced from six months to three to give more flexibility. Has anyone heard more of this proposal?