Finally seeing house prices drop?

ReadingTim

TonyTeacake said:

I have posted this in another forum but this is what the near future could look like.

If we fall into a recession economies are going to take a battering. We have runaway inflation and the only way to battle this is with interest rate hikes but the BOE don't want to do this to fast has it will cause the markets to panic and collapse so they are trying do this slowly which is ridiculous as this will send us to tipping point and inflation will go even further out of control. Factor in huge gas and oil prices it looks like there is no escaping this one.

All of this money printed during the pandemic to try and prevent a recession has just kicked the can further down the road. So with everything else going on at the moment it has the potential to be a recipe for disaster.

I know a lot of people are putting a lot of emphasis on not enough housing stock and to many buyers but how long for?, with all this uncertainty most people will not have has much money to spend due to high costs for petrol, household goods, food and basically everything. This will also mean the real economy which is goods and services will really start to suffer which will effect many businesses and jobs. 

Nobody wants to hear that there houses can go down in price, me included but the reality of it all the writing is on the wall. Bubbles always burst.
You can look at the data for house prices for Jan-Feb 2022 and say house prices look like they have gone up but who knows what it will look like tomorrow or in the upcoming months it could take a drastic downturn. Historically when oil and gas prices have gone through the roof recessions have followed. 

Ah..... so oil & gas prices are the latest great white hope for the house price crashers.  

• Two years ago it was Covid
• Three years before that it was Brexit
• Eight years before that it was the financial crisis

Meanwhile, the "bubble" continues its quarter of a century long inflation.  If nothing can burst it, is it actually a bubble? 

"But this time it'll be different..." the HPC-ers wail, as they cling desperately to the latest bit of bad news, in the vain hope they'll be finally vindicated, only to be disappointed, and wrong.  Again.  Still, what's the next crisis on the horizon....?!?  

lookstraightahead

People hope that things go their way. I'm just glad banks are now down valuing because I wouldn't want to now have a large mortgage, a variable interest rate, and debts/loans. If people have understood that the market can go both ways, I'm sure they will be fine, as they will have been sensible.

lookstraightahead

ReadingTim said:

TonyTeacake said:

I have posted this in another forum but this is what the near future could look like.

If we fall into a recession economies are going to take a battering. We have runaway inflation and the only way to battle this is with interest rate hikes but the BOE don't want to do this to fast has it will cause the markets to panic and collapse so they are trying do this slowly which is ridiculous as this will send us to tipping point and inflation will go even further out of control. Factor in huge gas and oil prices it looks like there is no escaping this one.

All of this money printed during the pandemic to try and prevent a recession has just kicked the can further down the road. So with everything else going on at the moment it has the potential to be a recipe for disaster.

I know a lot of people are putting a lot of emphasis on not enough housing stock and to many buyers but how long for?, with all this uncertainty most people will not have has much money to spend due to high costs for petrol, household goods, food and basically everything. This will also mean the real economy which is goods and services will really start to suffer which will effect many businesses and jobs. 

Nobody wants to hear that there houses can go down in price, me included but the reality of it all the writing is on the wall. Bubbles always burst.
You can look at the data for house prices for Jan-Feb 2022 and say house prices look like they have gone up but who knows what it will look like tomorrow or in the upcoming months it could take a drastic downturn. Historically when oil and gas prices have gone through the roof recessions have followed. 

Ah..... so oil & gas prices are the latest great white hope for the house price crashers.  

• Two years ago it was Covid
• Three years before that it was Brexit
• Eight years before that it was the financial crisis

Meanwhile, the "bubble" continues its quarter of a century long inflation.  If nothing can burst it, is it actually a bubble? 

"But this time it'll be different..." the HPC-ers wail, as they cling desperately to the latest bit of bad news, in the vain hope they'll be finally vindicated, only to be disappointed, and wrong.  Again.  Still, what's the next crisis on the horizon....?!?  

The point is, it's been a long time since the last one, and it will happen again.

im not fussed either way, I don't have a big mortgage and I'm not moving. But I do think things will change.

ps it's not been 25 years since the market rectified itself. 

Getting_greyer

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

Ramouth said:

MobileSaver said:

Fundamentally, the property market is based on supply and demand and while there will always be short-term spikes and troughs there won't be a general long-term downward trend until the supply side of the equation is addressed... and I can't see that happening any time soon...

If the general population believe that prices are likely to fall in the foreseeable future they will hold off buying, reducing demand in the shot term, and therefore putting downward pressure on prices.

I genuinely do not believe that many people will hold of buying because they think "prices are likely to fall in the foreseeable future".

Perhaps it would be different if houses were like say iPhones where there was practically unlimited supply and you could buy the same thing from pretty much anywhere.

Houses people want though are in short supply and people don't just move house on a whim; they have very specific needs such as a new location, bigger size or better environment - only the HPC zealots will sacrifice all those things for ever and a day just to try and get something cheaper.

I have posted this in another forum but this is what the near future could look like.

If we fall into a recession economies are going to take a battering. We have runaway inflation and the only way to battle this is with interest rate hikes but the BOE don't want to do this to fast has it will cause the markets to panic and collapse so they are trying do this slowly which is ridiculous as this will send us to tipping point and inflation will go even further out of control. Factor in huge gas and oil prices it looks like there is no escaping this one.

All of this money printed during the pandemic to try and prevent a recession has just kicked the can further down the road. So with everything else going on at the moment it has the potential to be a recipe for disaster.

I know a lot of people are putting a lot of emphasis on not enough housing stock and to many buyers but how long for?, with all this uncertainty most people will not have has much money to spend due to high costs for petrol, household goods, food and basically everything. This will also mean the real economy which is goods and services will really start to suffer which will effect many businesses and jobs. 

Nobody wants to hear that there houses can go down in price, me included but the reality of it all the writing is on the wall. Bubbles always burst.You can look at the data for house prices for Jan-Feb 2022 and say house prices look like they have gone up but who knows what it will look like tomorrow or in the upcoming months it could take a drastic downturn. Historically when oil and gas prices have gone through the roof recessions have followed. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/970941/quarterly-gdp-growth-uk/

ProDave

lookstraightahead said:

ReadingTim said:

TonyTeacake said:

I have posted this in another forum but this is what the near future could look like.

If we fall into a recession economies are going to take a battering. We have runaway inflation and the only way to battle this is with interest rate hikes but the BOE don't want to do this to fast has it will cause the markets to panic and collapse so they are trying do this slowly which is ridiculous as this will send us to tipping point and inflation will go even further out of control. Factor in huge gas and oil prices it looks like there is no escaping this one.

All of this money printed during the pandemic to try and prevent a recession has just kicked the can further down the road. So with everything else going on at the moment it has the potential to be a recipe for disaster.

I know a lot of people are putting a lot of emphasis on not enough housing stock and to many buyers but how long for?, with all this uncertainty most people will not have has much money to spend due to high costs for petrol, household goods, food and basically everything. This will also mean the real economy which is goods and services will really start to suffer which will effect many businesses and jobs. 

Nobody wants to hear that there houses can go down in price, me included but the reality of it all the writing is on the wall. Bubbles always burst.
You can look at the data for house prices for Jan-Feb 2022 and say house prices look like they have gone up but who knows what it will look like tomorrow or in the upcoming months it could take a drastic downturn. Historically when oil and gas prices have gone through the roof recessions have followed. 

Ah..... so oil & gas prices are the latest great white hope for the house price crashers.  

• Two years ago it was Covid
• Three years before that it was Brexit
• Eight years before that it was the financial crisis

Meanwhile, the "bubble" continues its quarter of a century long inflation.  If nothing can burst it, is it actually a bubble? 

"But this time it'll be different..." the HPC-ers wail, as they cling desperately to the latest bit of bad news, in the vain hope they'll be finally vindicated, only to be disappointed, and wrong.  Again.  Still, what's the next crisis on the horizon....?!?  

The point is, it's been a long time since the last one, and it will happen again.

im not fussed either way, I don't have a big mortgage and I'm not moving. But I do think things will change.

ps it's not been 25 years since the market rectified itself. 

Last happened 2008, 14 years ago.  I am not sure where this 1/4 century bubble idea comes from.

MobileSaver

[Deleted User] said:

MobileSaver said:

I watched the Blackstuff show again during lockdown and it's struck me that many of those here moaning about how easy their parents and grandparents had it should also watch the show; it's an eye-opener and very powerful stuff.

More telling than anything though is that those apartments that "weren't a million pounds anymore" are now more like two, three or four million pounds...

I think many people have no idea, literally no idea, what it's like now. How far the gap between earnings and property prices has grown, and how fortunate they were back in the day.

Of course, because the only thing that matters is the earnings/house-price ratio.

Just ignore that over 3 million people were unemployed back then, ignore interest rates were often over 10%, ignore there was no internet where pretty much anything is just a click away, ignore most homes only had single glazing, ignore only 50% of houses had central heating... those old'uns had it so cushy back then!

TonyTeacake

lookstraightahead said:

ReadingTim said:

TonyTeacake said:

I have posted this in another forum but this is what the near future could look like.

If we fall into a recession economies are going to take a battering. We have runaway inflation and the only way to battle this is with interest rate hikes but the BOE don't want to do this to fast has it will cause the markets to panic and collapse so they are trying do this slowly which is ridiculous as this will send us to tipping point and inflation will go even further out of control. Factor in huge gas and oil prices it looks like there is no escaping this one.

All of this money printed during the pandemic to try and prevent a recession has just kicked the can further down the road. So with everything else going on at the moment it has the potential to be a recipe for disaster.

I know a lot of people are putting a lot of emphasis on not enough housing stock and to many buyers but how long for?, with all this uncertainty most people will not have has much money to spend due to high costs for petrol, household goods, food and basically everything. This will also mean the real economy which is goods and services will really start to suffer which will effect many businesses and jobs. 

Nobody wants to hear that there houses can go down in price, me included but the reality of it all the writing is on the wall. Bubbles always burst.
You can look at the data for house prices for Jan-Feb 2022 and say house prices look like they have gone up but who knows what it will look like tomorrow or in the upcoming months it could take a drastic downturn. Historically when oil and gas prices have gone through the roof recessions have followed. 

Ah..... so oil & gas prices are the latest great white hope for the house price crashers.  

• Two years ago it was Covid
• Three years before that it was Brexit
• Eight years before that it was the financial crisis

Meanwhile, the "bubble" continues its quarter of a century long inflation.  If nothing can burst it, is it actually a bubble? 

"But this time it'll be different..." the HPC-ers wail, as they cling desperately to the latest bit of bad news, in the vain hope they'll be finally vindicated, only to be disappointed, and wrong.  Again.  Still, what's the next crisis on the horizon....?!?  

The point is, it's been a long time since the last one, and it will happen again.

im not fussed either way, I don't have a big mortgage and I'm not moving. But I do think things will change.

ps it's not been 25 years since the market rectified itself. 

To be honest Tim I would not like house prices to carry on rising the way they have been has I have empathy with younger generation or the people trying to better themselves and get on the property ladder. Is it some kind of bragging right to say "oh my property has shot up by 10% so I have more money".  Personally I think property prices are ridiculous and that also applies to where I live. 

Let us prayer for the people of Ukraine this war doesn't escalate any further with more innocent people killed and send us all into a global recession.
Maybe Brexit and covid didn't kill the property market like a lot of us expected but it can't last forever unless you listen to people who have to gain from property prices to keep on rising.

So are you telling me oil and gas prices will keep the property market propped up?.
If you do your homework and look historically at what has happened when oil and gas prices went through the roof a recession usually follows. Are you going to tell me this is different this time because the mortgage lenders have accounted for this and everyone will just buy electric cars!. Time will only give us the answer, you could be right and I could be wrong, let's hope I am wrong.

But the longer this war goes on consumer confidence will be low like it has always has been during recessions.

onylon

MobileSaver said:

[Deleted User] said:

MobileSaver said:

I watched the Blackstuff show again during lockdown and it's struck me that many of those here moaning about how easy their parents and grandparents had it should also watch the show; it's an eye-opener and very powerful stuff.

More telling than anything though is that those apartments that "weren't a million pounds anymore" are now more like two, three or four million pounds...

I think many people have no idea, literally no idea, what it's like now. How far the gap between earnings and property prices has grown, and how fortunate they were back in the day.

Of course, because the only thing that matters is the earnings/house-price ratio.

Just ignore that over 3 million people were unemployed back then, ignore interest rates were often over 10%, ignore there was no internet where pretty much anything is just a click away, ignore most homes only had single glazing, ignore only 50% of houses had central heating... those old'uns had it so cushy back then!

Living without avocado toast must have been torture

MobileSaver

lookstraightahead said:

I wouldn't want to now have a large mortgage, a variable interest rate, and debts/loans. If people have understood that the market can go both ways, I'm sure they will be fine, as they will have been sensible.

Pretty much everyone with a large mortgage who is on a variable interest rate must have already come to the end of their fixed rate period; this means the vast majority will have seen their secured asset increase by 18% on average over the last two years so I agree that I'm sure they will be fine.

propertyhunter

I've said it before - every time I complete on a house, there's a correction soon after because of my dumb luck. So, with the plan for exchange and completion before the end of this month, don't say I didn't warn you!