Finally seeing house prices drop?

ReadingTim

Meanwhile, the Halifax backs up what the Nationwide  said a couple of days ago....  

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getmore4less said:

The 1989 crash took about 11y inflated adjusted to to return to previous prices and  18y before the next dip.
Actual prices hardly dropped and just flatlined for ~10years

This time period always sticks in my mind. The city wide boys buying porches with there bonuses and who can forget

   

Harry Enfield. I remember the £1 million apartments looking out on the river thames. Then came the market crash, those apartments weren't a million pounds anymore, the porche keys handed back. " Gis a job, i can do that"

MobileSaver

Thumbs_Up said:

getmore4less said:

The 1989 crash took about 11y inflated adjusted to to return to previous prices and  18y before the next dip.
Actual prices hardly dropped and just flatlined for ~10years

This time period always sticks in my mind. The city wide boys buying porches with there bonuses and who can forget Harry Enfield. I remember the £1 million apartments looking out on the river thames. Then came the market crash, those apartments weren't a million pounds anymore, the porche keys handed back. " Gis a job, i can do that"

Harry Enfield's catchphrase was "Loadsamoney". The phrase "Gizza job, I can do that" was from Boys From The Blackstuff.

I watched the Blackstuff show again during lockdown and it's struck me that many of those here moaning about how easy their parents and grandparents had it should also watch the show; it's an eye-opener and very powerful stuff.

More telling than anything though is that those apartments that "weren't a million pounds anymore" are now more like two, three or four million pounds...

Noneforit999

MobileSaver said:

More telling than anything though is that those apartments that "weren't a million pounds anymore" are now more like two, three or four million pounds...

As with all housing price dips, its really only a concern if you have a low LTV and cannot afford to repay if you find yourself unable to remortgage and on the lenders variable rate. For those who have say 40-50% LTV, a dip in prices is of little concern because a 10% drop in prices might at worst put them in a slightly higher LTV come remortgage time. 

We were affordability checked at 6% last time we remortgaged despite the rate only being 1.9% which I don't believe the lenders did prior to the 07/08 dip?

Any of those who could afford to weather the storm when buying those million pound apartments are probably laughing all the way to the bank at the moment but those who managed to scramble a 10% deposit together to buy them probably lost out massively. 

Will property prices drop massively soon? Who knows, I would doubt we are going to have a massive crash like 07/08 but who can predict these days, lenders are not lending in the same way as back then so a crash is unlikely to have anywhere near the same impact. 

I would only be concerned if I had bought in the last 12 months and had a 10% deposit or less on a 2 year deal as those are the ones who could be in trouble if house prices do drop in any significant amount. 

ReadingTim

Thumbs_Up said:

This time period always sticks in my mind. The city wide boys buying porches with there bonuses and who can forget    

Harry Enfield. I remember the £1 million apartments looking out on the river thames. Then came the market crash, those apartments weren't a million pounds anymore, the porche keys handed back. " Gis a job, i can do that"

Boys from the Blackstuff preceded Harry Enfield - the former critiquing the deindustrialisation of the late 70's and early 80's, the latter satirising yuppies and the boom in the city and service economy which followed it. 

Sure, the recession of the late 80's and early 90's was pretty bad, but by the mid 90's things were on the up, a trend which has continued unabated from Labour coming to power in '97 to today.  With global financial crises, Brexit then global pandemics causing but minor blips in an otherwise relentless, quarter of a century long march upwards of prices, it's hard to see what, short of nuclear Armageddon (hello Vladimir....!) is going to derail it, and the house price crashers are basically barking at the moon for all the use it'll do.... 

TonyTeacake

Boys from the blackstuff they where a brilliant watch. They also made a movie called The Blackstuff which came before the series. I have watched on youtube and BBCi player but not sure if it is there anymore, I thought it was better then the series. Surprisingly just found it here 

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7fjib5

ProDave

BikingBud said:

ProDave said:#

housebuyer143 said:

ProDave said:

HotPantsCruiser said:

ProDave said:

So the OP thinks a house price crash is a good thing?

Has he ever lived through one?  Does he think it is a good idea?

You put your house on the market, and NOBODY comes to look at it, because nobody wants to buy when prices are falling, if they wait they will get it cheaper, and that becomes a self fulfilling prophesy because nobody buys prices continue falling.  Then people reach the point they can't afford to go lower so everyone just stays put instead.

With the present war in Ukraine, I would expect the market to slow considerably, people don't like uncertainty when buying a house so many will now be waiting to see what happens.  That will certainly slow sales, the same has happened before e.g. when we invaded Iraq in 2003, but prices did not actually fall then, just we had no viewings for 6 months until the direction of travel became clearer and people started buying again.

Doesn`t demand for property mean that people always need to buy because they always need somewhere to live?

I had a property that took 3 years to sell, and another that did not sell so is now let.  so not always no that is not the case.

Every property sells at the right price. 

Every property sells at A price, but that is not always the right price.

My example.  I was selling my 5 bedroom house and self building a smaller 3 bedroom house. The 5 bed was valued at £300K but just did not sell even when reduced 10%.  The only way it would have sold in that market would be a drastic reduction, and then it would have sold for less than the build cost of the new house.

Would you PAY to downsize?  Would any of you PAY to downsize?

It's not just the size that matters

Many other considerations influence any major life decision.

A quality of life move to a smaller well designed house, fewer bedrooms, better area, more garden etc after children have left home may cost you more.

I was moving 2 doors up the same road to downsize and release a bit of equity, so there was NO WAY I would sell the old larger house for more than the cost of the new smaller house.

TonyTeacake

MobileSaver said:

Ramouth said:

MobileSaver said:

Fundamentally, the property market is based on supply and demand and while there will always be short-term spikes and troughs there won't be a general long-term downward trend until the supply side of the equation is addressed... and I can't see that happening any time soon...

If the general population believe that prices are likely to fall in the foreseeable future they will hold off buying, reducing demand in the shot term, and therefore putting downward pressure on prices.

I genuinely do not believe that many people will hold of buying because they think "prices are likely to fall in the foreseeable future".

Perhaps it would be different if houses were like say iPhones where there was practically unlimited supply and you could buy the same thing from pretty much anywhere.

Houses people want though are in short supply and people don't just move house on a whim; they have very specific needs such as a new location, bigger size or better environment - only the HPC zealots will sacrifice all those things for ever and a day just to try and get something cheaper.

I have posted this in another forum but this is what the near future could look like.

If we fall into a recession economies are going to take a battering. We have runaway inflation and the only way to battle this is with interest rate hikes but the BOE don't want to do this to fast has it will cause the markets to panic and collapse so they are trying do this slowly which is ridiculous as this will send us to tipping point and inflation will go even further out of control. Factor in huge gas and oil prices it looks like there is no escaping this one.

All of this money printed during the pandemic to try and prevent a recession has just kicked the can further down the road. So with everything else going on at the moment it has the potential to be a recipe for disaster.

I know a lot of people are putting a lot of emphasis on not enough housing stock and to many buyers but how long for?, with all this uncertainty most people will not have has much money to spend due to high costs for petrol, household goods, food and basically everything. This will also mean the real economy which is goods and services will really start to suffer which will effect many businesses and jobs. 

Nobody wants to hear that there houses can go down in price, me included but the reality of it all the writing is on the wall. Bubbles always burst.You can look at the data for house prices for Jan-Feb 2022 and say house prices look like they have gone up but who knows what it will look like tomorrow or in the upcoming months it could take a drastic downturn. Historically when oil and gas prices have gone through the roof recessions have followed. 

[Deleted User]

MobileSaver said:

Thumbs_Up said:

getmore4less said:

The 1989 crash took about 11y inflated adjusted to to return to previous prices and  18y before the next dip.
Actual prices hardly dropped and just flatlined for ~10years

This time period always sticks in my mind. The city wide boys buying porches with there bonuses and who can forget Harry Enfield. I remember the £1 million apartments looking out on the river thames. Then came the market crash, those apartments weren't a million pounds anymore, the porche keys handed back. " Gis a job, i can do that"

Harry Enfield's catchphrase was "Loadsamoney". The phrase "Gizza job, I can do that" was from Boys From The Blackstuff.

I watched the Blackstuff show again during lockdown and it's struck me that many of those here moaning about how easy their parents and grandparents had it should also watch the show; it's an eye-opener and very powerful stuff.

More telling than anything though is that those apartments that "weren't a million pounds anymore" are now more like two, three or four million pounds...

People who think this should try living a day in a younger person's shoes. It's impossible of course but I think many people have no idea, literally no idea, what it's like now. How far the gap between earnings and property prices has grown, and how fortunate they were back in the day.

It's impossible to explain it to most of them, they just can't comprehend.

propertyhunter

The real winners in a property crash are the cash rich - they'll be waiting to snap up second homes and BTLs. If you're ahead of the game you'll have kept some powder dry for this eventuality.