Return expectations - Global Equity, next decade

ChilliBob

Yeah it's annoying isn't it? I started a position in my GIA after careful consideration. Also Stewart Investors Sustainability fund - which has done marginally worse. Meanwhile, Fidelity World P (OCF 0.12!) has held up considerably better.

Royal London Global Equity Select though.. has been doing alright. Don't know if this link will work: https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/compare/investment.aspx#?idType=msid&securityIds=F00000TX59|F000010MAZ|F00000NQ9X

A more balanced fund than a global tracker, with a lower PE too. I'm considering starting a position in my GIA for it. Probably find the same thing happens as the above two knowing my luck!

ChilliBob

Prism said:

NannaH said:

Best not mention the Royal London Sustainable funds 😡
Just goes to show that even careful research and trustnet/morningstar ratings aren’t the most reliable predictors.   I honestly don’t know why I bothered.  

I hold one of the RL sustainable funds and its been great. What's up with them?

It's a pretty new addition for me, I'm on -10% at the moment, last week was -14 or so. Early days so not concerning, and something I intend to hold - it defo looks like a buy and hold fund. It's always just a pisser when something does double digit losses pretty quickly. No biggie. 

coyrls

Thrugelmir said:

ChilliBob said:

The forecasts do seem to be quite different to the conventional financial modelling you see from IFAs, or other sites where you talk about assuming x% per year when cash flow forecasting and stuff.

Probably as the ground rules have only recently started to change. One investment article I read recently described the coming era as the "Great Reset".  There's far too many uncertainties to start to forecast with any degree of accuracy. The one thing that stock markets hate is uncertainty. Uncertainty increases volatility.  Hence why I've said on a few occasions recently active investment management is likely to prevail. There's no longer a one size fits all. An abundance of cheap money in peoples pockets driving all stocks upwards to crazy valuations will progressively fade away. Fundamentals will again matter. Cash generation. Balance Sheet Strength. Etc, etc. Going to be sizable winners and losers. 

I understand the context in which you've used the term "Great Reset" but I'd be cautious about using it in any context, given that it’s a term widely used by conspiracy theorists (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-57532368) , of which I am sure you are not one.

ChilliBob

Ha ha, it made me think of somewhere I used to work where we had an ancient creaking server which we didn't patch. Every time you had to reset it it was certainly a 'great reset' occasion! - 30 minutes later, much pacing and back in business. I wasn't sad to see it go to a skip lol

coastline

Albermarle said:

I suppose if you're trying to forecast for the next say 50 years you'd need to see how far back you could go and take that average. 11.29% for MSCI World since 1978 is apparently the average, according to https://backtest.curvo.eu/market-index/msci-world  which seems a lot higher than I was expecting. 

Only a minority invest 100% equity , so for most people the projections for retirement would not be based on that figure.

My attempts at active management pics over the last year weren't great - I'd have been better off sticking to a Global Tracker.

Less than a year ago I switched one UK fund to a more actively managed one . Partly because some wise heads on here said that UK managed funds often beat the sloth like FTSE 100. The fund has since  performed abysmally .....

You live and learn.

If I was starting today I'd go for a global tracker as my core holding. Maybe add a few funds with it ? MSCI World since launch in 1969 has an annualised performance of 10.3%.

Chart Tool | Trustnet

Read this last week about the oldest IT's and performance. They're not exactly outpacing the MSCI World over a few decades..

Long-Term Returns Of The Oldest Trusts – IT Investor

ChilliBob

That's pretty much what I'm doing. Positions in both Fidelity World P and HSBC Ftse All World. 

I intended to add some stuff around it essentially. 

Considerations range from one end of the spectrum sfuff like CGAR, Trojan X. To the other end of the spectrum stuff like HVPE.

Something like Global Equity Select and similar sits nicely in the middle really. 

NannaH

Probably nothing,  just very bad timing on my part,  invested £10k in my isa in the Sustainable diversified fund and £10k in husband’s isa in the balanced fund in November and  they dropped within days. 

Currently 6% and 5% down which I know is nothing but I’m just so annoyed that I put in lump sums instead of drip feeding November to March. 

NannaH

ChilliBob said:

That's pretty much what I'm doing. Positions in both Fidelity World P and HSBC Ftse All World. 

That’s what I’m doing with my future contributions. 

Currently am 50/50 split between vls80 and BG Global income growth,  I’ll leave them alone for the forseeable future.  

Nebulous2

I posted at the time, heading for a year ago. As part of a house sale we filled two ISAs each, one before the end of the financial year and one after.

For one of them we bought two global trackers with half of it, and I chose funds with the other half, despite advice not to here. The main reason for that was to pivot away from the USA as I felt 60-70% was too much. 

Anyway to cut a long story short - global trackers have out performed my own active choices by quite a bit. The standout failure has been Jupiter UK mid-cap acc, which is down over 16% in less than a year. 

ChilliBob

See that's the thing, a year ago people were warning about the US valuations, so, you decided to reduce the weight of them... To your detriment, I foujd myself doing the same - both then and now. Half heartily back then - I chose some Majedie fund with a lower US exposure, and a bunch of UK small caps. The Majedie has been a bit of a flop. I did consider a European and Asian tracker this morning to compliment the global but I didn't do anything in the end!