War in Ukraine

M0ssim0_2

God forbid that Russia invades Ukraine but if it does I was wondering what the potential knock on effects this could have in travelling to other Countries in the vicinity with potential air space closures and the threat of the war spilling over and dragging the EU or Nato into conflict. Obviously if this happens we will have bigger worries to concern ourselves about. I can imagine many people wouldn't be comfortable in travelling to a country where war is raging in the Country next door. I presume from a travel rights perspective you couldn't just cancel your holiday and obtain a refund and I think the majority of insurance policies excludes War. So are you taking a risk booking holidays to Eastern European countries at the moment or indeed the EU as a whole? Apologies if this comes across as callous I was just curious to know if this issue is crossing anyone else's minds when looking to book a holiday

zagfles

People were still going on holiday to Turkey when war was raging in Syria, and people were going to countries like Italy and Austria which border the former Yugoslavia while war was raging there in the early 90's. I think they were just advised not to go close to the border.

If you're worried about EU countries being affected, losing the cost of a holiday will be the least of your worries! 

M0ssim0_2

Zagfles, you are right with those examples. Like I said if the EU and NATO do get dragged in it certainly will be the least of our worries. 

MouldyOldDough

I don't see how Russia can afford a war with anyone 
Their economy is 11th largest in the world (smaller than, S Korea!)
Yet they can afford 150.000 troops 
 Can someone please explain 

Voyager2002

MouldyOldDough said:

I don't see how Russia can afford a war with anyone 
Their economy is 11th largest in the world (smaller than, S Korea!)
Yet they can afford 150.000 troops 
 Can someone please explain 

A large army is a good way to reduce the number unemployed.

War is expensive, but so is clearing up after someone has launched a nuclear misslie at you. Russia fears that Ukraine is on the point of becoming a missile base for the USA, which would leave Russia incredibly vulnerable to a US first strike.

And remember that Ukraine and Russia were historically one country (closer than England and Scotland), and a coup eight years ago installed a government that is hostile to Russia and opposed by many (perhaps the majority) of Ukrainians, particularly those in the eastern part of the country. Since these people are effectively Russian, the government of Russia feels some responsibility to protect them.

bagand96

Lufthansa Group suspending flights into Ukraine for one week. I expect others will now follow suit.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lufthansa-suspend-flights-kyiv-odessa-monday-2022-02-19/

NoodleDoodleMan

"Yet they can afford 150.000 troops 

 Can someone please explain"

Conscription.

CKhalvashi

Voyager2002 said:

MouldyOldDough said:

I don't see how Russia can afford a war with anyone 
Their economy is 11th largest in the world (smaller than, S Korea!)
Yet they can afford 150.000 troops 
 Can someone please explain 

And remember that Ukraine and Russia were historically one country (closer than England and Scotland), and a coup eight years ago installed a government that is hostile to Russia and opposed by many (perhaps the majority) of Ukrainians, particularly those in the eastern part of the country. Since these people are effectively Russian, the government of Russia feels some responsibility to protect them.

The history here is a lot more complicated than this in reality.

In any event, as things stand at the moment there is no war and the situation on the ground in Ukraine is calm. The area of Russia where troops are has been historically very heavily barracked and I've been in Belarus when joint military exercises have taken place with Russia multiple times, so this can't be classed as anything more than routine in my opinion at this stage. The same goes with the partial airspace closure over Rostov FIR, as this also happens most years.

On a personal level, I'm booked to go back to Ukraine next month and with the situation at present I personally see no reason to change those plans, although will be in a position to be out of the country in less than 2 hours should the worst happen. Of course the situation is constantly under review in my head.

Voyager2002

CKhalvashi said:

Voyager2002 said:

MouldyOldDough said:

And remember that Ukraine and Russia were historically one country (closer than England and Scotland), and a coup eight years ago installed a government that is hostile to Russia and opposed by many (perhaps the majority) of Ukrainians, particularly those in the eastern part of the country. Since these people are effectively Russian, the government of Russia feels some responsibility to protect them.

The history here is a lot more complicated than this in reality.

In any event, as things stand at the moment there is no war and the situation on the ground in Ukraine is calm. The area of Russia where troops are has been historically very heavily barracked and I've been in Belarus when joint military exercises have taken place with Russia multiple times, so this can't be classed as anything more than routine in my opinion at this stage. The same goes with the partial airspace closure over Rostov FIR, as this also happens most years.

On a personal level, I'm booked to go back to Ukraine next month and with the situation at present I personally see no reason to change those plans, although will be in a position to be out of the country in less than 2 hours should the worst happen. Of course the situation is constantly under review in my head.

I was responding to a question about Putin's view of the situation rather than what I think personally, and apparently he has published an essay in which he makes the 'one people' point. Actually I think the parallel with England and Scotland is thought-provoking: by holding an independence referendum we (English) acknowledged that Scotland is a different country, and that the basis of the Union is that the people of Scotland consent to be part of the UK. In the case of Ukraine and Russia that consent is lacking: many Ukrainians remember the abominable ways in which Soviet governments behaved (from the Holodorm to Chernobyl) and do not consent to be ruled by Russia.

How would you get out of Ukraine in two hours if commercial transport stops?

CKhalvashi

Voyager2002 said:

CKhalvashi said:

Voyager2002 said:

MouldyOldDough said:

And remember that Ukraine and Russia were historically one country (closer than England and Scotland), and a coup eight years ago installed a government that is hostile to Russia and opposed by many (perhaps the majority) of Ukrainians, particularly those in the eastern part of the country. Since these people are effectively Russian, the government of Russia feels some responsibility to protect them.

The history here is a lot more complicated than this in reality.

In any event, as things stand at the moment there is no war and the situation on the ground in Ukraine is calm. The area of Russia where troops are has been historically very heavily barracked and I've been in Belarus when joint military exercises have taken place with Russia multiple times, so this can't be classed as anything more than routine in my opinion at this stage. The same goes with the partial airspace closure over Rostov FIR, as this also happens most years.

On a personal level, I'm booked to go back to Ukraine next month and with the situation at present I personally see no reason to change those plans, although will be in a position to be out of the country in less than 2 hours should the worst happen. Of course the situation is constantly under review in my head.

I was responding to a question about Putin's view of the situation rather than what I think personally, and apparently he has published an essay in which he makes the 'one people' point. Actually I think the parallel with England and Scotland is thought-provoking: by holding an independence referendum we (English) acknowledged that Scotland is a different country, and that the basis of the Union is that the people of Scotland consent to be part of the UK. In the case of Ukraine and Russia that consent is lacking: many Ukrainians remember the abominable ways in which Soviet governments behaved (from the Holodorm to Chernobyl) and do not consent to be ruled by Russia.

How would you get out of Ukraine in two hours if commercial transport stops?

Got you, completely agree.

I'll send you a PM in 2 seconds for the final question.