Scottish mortgage trust: a buy or a trap?

Alexland

The video replay of Jerome Powell yesterday was a bit like a funeral for what little hopes there were of any overall return occurring in the near future with strong earnings growth being carefully offset by increasing interest rates to control inflation. But if they don't give investors enough hope or reason to be in the market then valuations will continue to decline particularly at the more speculative end of the market. On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Thrugelmir

Alexland said:

 On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Are you trying to convince yourself? 

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

 On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Are you trying to convince yourself? 

We do not need to convince ourself, the statistics says so. Interest rate hike is actually good for the stock market in the long run.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

 On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Are you trying to convince yourself? 

We do not need to convince ourself, the statistics says so. Interest rate hike is actually good for the stock market in the long run.

Are you in the USA ?  Confirmation bias is dangerous as an investor. 

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

 On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Are you trying to convince yourself? 

We do not need to convince ourself, the statistics says so. Interest rate hike is actually good for the stock market in the long run.

Are you in the USA ?  Confirmation bias is dangerous as an investor. 

It is nothing to do with confirmation Bias. That statitical data above is also follow the same pattern in other countries. 

But having said that majority of my investments in individual stocks and funds are US bias. Whether you like it or not, what happen in the US going to affect investors around the world, due the global present of US companies. This is just example popular investment in the UK, VLS and SMT.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

 On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Are you trying to convince yourself? 

We do not need to convince ourself, the statistics says so. Interest rate hike is actually good for the stock market in the long run.

Are you in the USA ?  Confirmation bias is dangerous as an investor. 

It is nothing to do with confirmation Bias. That statitical data above is also follow the same pattern in other countries. 

But having said that majority of my investments in individual stocks and funds are US bias. Whether you like it or not, what happen in the US going to affect investors around the world, due the global present of US companies. This is just example popular investment in the UK, VLS and SMT.

My observation was based on your apparent oversight of currencey movements when using a US data source. Different time periods have generated very different returns for those of us who use £ when investing. Likewise the BOE hasn't always been in step with either the Fed or other major Central Banks in terms of interest rate movements. 

jimjames

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

 On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Are you trying to convince yourself? 

We do not need to convince ourself, the statistics says so. Interest rate hike is actually good for the stock market in the long run.

If you remove the last line of second table which is really an outlier then the numbers switch round. When every other cycle is 2/3 years and the final one is 11 then it doesn't really give a reasonable average. If it was an annual return then it might give a better comparison.

grumiofoundation

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

 On the bright side the next few years should be a good period to be making regular contributions.

Are you trying to convince yourself? 

We do not need to convince ourself, the statistics says so. Interest rate hike is actually good for the stock market in the long run.

Some of the use of averages in that table would make a GCSE math student have a fit... (or 10th grade since is from US!)

As pointed out above the use of 'average' (presumably mean average but not correctly labelled- minus 1 mark) with the differing time ranges is odd.

The Median average not really a useful or appropriate average to use with only 5 data points.
Anyway 2 of the median values are incorrect anyway (minus 1 mark). 

masonic

Agree it is very charitable to consider 2008-2019 a rate hike cycle.

Should probably calculate annualised growth figures with this sort of data, otherwise the result is biased towards long time periods. Is it any wonder the period spanning a decade is an outlier when the others are much shorter.

adindas

SMT below GBX1031 is a good price to enter/adding position  imo as it is below the NAV Price and might good to keep adding it in a smaller chunk. It happened yesterday. Also the VIX and the Fear Greed Index has shown that the market is cooling down a little bit. The heat migt start rising again in about three weeks when the FED is giving an update what they are going to do and/or probably the big one in March when they announce the interest rate hike.

I set up my limit buy order @GBX995 e.g the next strong horizontal support level, It was not triggered, it is probably too gready and I will need to increase that limit a little but next week??

When they keep dropping much lower than this GBX995 support level. I will stop DCA dripfeeding it and wait until they reach another low, e.g the next lower support level.

People have different opinion on what they believe but what matter is what make you more money. I personally believe in the proverbs to a greater degree (But not blindly believe )  “time in the market and not timing the market”, “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.” I have applied those principles in a relative well diversified index fund where the volatility is relatively small. But I do not apply that to a very volatile growth tech stock, or fund which are holding a large portion of volatile stocks. I do not blindly buying at any price at any time just because I have money to invest. I beg to differ with some of views on this MSEs here.

Remember another hearsay that supplement the above proverbs “Do not catch the falling knife”. Peter Lynch, Bill Ackman once said, volatility is your friend.