Vanguard S&S

GeoffTF

Collyflower1 said:

There is so much negativity now i'm not sure if i should just save in equities! I'm thinking the VWRL fund but there is over reliance on the US & technology! Then again i could just drip feed in either VWRL or a 100% VLS and smooth out any volatility?

Saving your money in just equities is very risky. The US & technology is where the majority of the money is being made, so they are strongly represented in VWRL.

It makes sense to drip feed each month's savings as they occur. It does not make much sense to drip feed a lump sum. If the market goes up, you lose out. If the market goes down, you benefit, but only if it goes down before you have invested most of your money.

The standard approach is to choose a bond percentage where you could take the hit if the market crashed, and invest all your money (except for emergency cash, of course) from day 1. If you cannot take the loss on day 1, you should not be in the market with that level of risk after that on either.

The biggest UK crash in my lifetime was in the 1970s. The market dropped to a quarter of its value. It recovered fairly quickly though. You would have lost most of your money if you had invested in Japan before World War 2. If you had invested in Japan at the market peak in 1999, you would still have been underwater 30 years later.

DireEmblem

GeoffTF said:

The biggest UK crash in my lifetime was in the 1970s. The market dropped to a quarter of its value. It recovered fairly quickly though. You would have lost most of your money if you had invested in Japan before World War 2. If you had invested in Japan at the market peak in 1999, you would still have been underwater 30 years later.

What else do you predict will happen in 7 years time?

GeoffTF

DireEmblem said:

GeoffTF said:

The biggest UK crash in my lifetime was in the 1970s. The market dropped to a quarter of its value. It recovered fairly quickly though. You would have lost most of your money if you had invested in Japan before World War 2. If you had invested in Japan at the market peak in 1999, you would still have been underwater 30 years later.

What else do you predict will happen in 7 years time?

I have not predicted anything. I do not have a time machine.

P933alilli

GeoffTF said:

Collyflower1 said:

There is so much negativity now i'm not sure if i should just save in equities! I'm thinking the VWRL fund but there is over reliance on the US & technology! Then again i could just drip feed in either VWRL or a 100% VLS and smooth out any volatility?

Saving your money in just equities is very risky. The US & technology is where the majority of the money is being made, so they are strongly represented in VWRL.

It makes sense to drip feed each month's savings as they occur. It does not make much sense to drip feed a lump sum. If the market goes up, you lose out. If the market goes down, you benefit, but only if it goes down before you have invested most of your money.

The standard approach is to choose a bond percentage where you could take the hit if the market crashed, and invest all your money (except for emergency cash, of course) from day 1. If you cannot take the loss on day 1, you should not be in the market with that level of risk after that on either.

The biggest UK crash in my lifetime was in the 1970s. The market dropped to a quarter of its value. It recovered fairly quickly though. You would have lost most of your money if you had invested in Japan before World War 2. If you had invested in Japan at the market peak in 1999, you would still have been underwater 30 years later.

Thanks for all the replies here, I realise i have a lot to learn! Its very difficult to take in such a lot of info in such a short timeframe but i guess i should take my time more? I guess i could drip feed  a few hundred until April to get a feel for it.
 
 Your suggestion makes sense! 
   
    Going back to the VLS60 i think i saw somewhere the p/e value of 19.2 which seems to be a decent rating in that such a valuation would expect to see continuing returns in the next year? I cant now find where i saw these ratings! Although p/e in isolation from other parameters may not mean that much?

   Again, ive seen a graph of cape averaged since 1980 and showing various bear markets, downturns & crashes, but that how the market has been below this cape for a good period, mid-80's-90's(?) Again, i cant find it! I need to take notes!
  
 

GeoffTF

Collyflower1 said:

GeoffTF said:

Collyflower1 said:

There is so much negativity now i'm not sure if i should just save in equities! I'm thinking the VWRL fund but there is over reliance on the US & technology! Then again i could just drip feed in either VWRL or a 100% VLS and smooth out any volatility?

Saving your money in just equities is very risky. The US & technology is where the majority of the money is being made, so they are strongly represented in VWRL.

It makes sense to drip feed each month's savings as they occur. It does not make much sense to drip feed a lump sum. If the market goes up, you lose out. If the market goes down, you benefit, but only if it goes down before you have invested most of your money.

The standard approach is to choose a bond percentage where you could take the hit if the market crashed, and invest all your money (except for emergency cash, of course) from day 1. If you cannot take the loss on day 1, you should not be in the market with that level of risk after that on either.

The biggest UK crash in my lifetime was in the 1970s. The market dropped to a quarter of its value. It recovered fairly quickly though. You would have lost most of your money if you had invested in Japan before World War 2. If you had invested in Japan at the market peak in 1999, you would still have been underwater 30 years later.

Thanks for all the replies here, I realise i have a lot to learn! Its very difficult to take in such a lot of info in such a short timeframe but i guess i should take my time more? I guess i could drip feed  a few hundred until April to get a feel for it.
 
 Your suggestion makes sense! 
   
    Going back to the VLS60 i think i saw somewhere the p/e value of 19.2 which seems to be a decent rating in that such a valuation would expect to see continuing returns in the next year? I cant now find where i saw these ratings! Although p/e in isolation from other parameters may not mean that much?

   Again, ive seen a graph of cape averaged since 1980 and showing various bear markets, downturns & crashes, but that how the market has been below this cape for a good period, mid-80's-90's(?) Again, i cant find it! I need to take notes!
  
 

Here is the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

It is higher than it was before the 1929 crash. Shiller has another ratio which takes interest rates into account, which paints a less gloomy picture, but interest rates could go up. There is no measure that reliably predicts the future.

coastline

GeoffTF said:

Collyflower1 said:

GeoffTF said:

Collyflower1 said:

There is so much negativity now i'm not sure if i should just save in equities! I'm thinking the VWRL fund but there is over reliance on the US & technology! Then again i could just drip feed in either VWRL or a 100% VLS and smooth out any volatility?

Saving your money in just equities is very risky. The US & technology is where the majority of the money is being made, so they are strongly represented in VWRL.

It makes sense to drip feed each month's savings as they occur. It does not make much sense to drip feed a lump sum. If the market goes up, you lose out. If the market goes down, you benefit, but only if it goes down before you have invested most of your money.

The standard approach is to choose a bond percentage where you could take the hit if the market crashed, and invest all your money (except for emergency cash, of course) from day 1. If you cannot take the loss on day 1, you should not be in the market with that level of risk after that on either.

The biggest UK crash in my lifetime was in the 1970s. The market dropped to a quarter of its value. It recovered fairly quickly though. You would have lost most of your money if you had invested in Japan before World War 2. If you had invested in Japan at the market peak in 1999, you would still have been underwater 30 years later.

Thanks for all the replies here, I realise i have a lot to learn! Its very difficult to take in such a lot of info in such a short timeframe but i guess i should take my time more? I guess i could drip feed  a few hundred until April to get a feel for it.
 
 Your suggestion makes sense! 
   
    Going back to the VLS60 i think i saw somewhere the p/e value of 19.2 which seems to be a decent rating in that such a valuation would expect to see continuing returns in the next year? I cant now find where i saw these ratings! Although p/e in isolation from other parameters may not mean that much?

   Again, ive seen a graph of cape averaged since 1980 and showing various bear markets, downturns & crashes, but that how the market has been below this cape for a good period, mid-80's-90's(?) Again, i cant find it! I need to take notes!
  
 

Here is the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

It is higher than it was before the 1929 crash. Shiller has another ratio which takes interest rates into account, which paints a less gloomy picture, but interest rates could go up. There is no measure that reliably predicts the future.

Is it really any good ? Apart from saying something like 10 cheap and 30 dear ? Imagine deciding not to invest because it's above the mean or median which is 16. You'd have been out of the market for the last 30 years.
Last year you had commentators saying the SP 500 was on a high P/E of 35 yet as soon as results improve it's on a trailing P/E of 24.

FJRH1SxXwAIsKYO (900×654) (twimg.com)

Forward P/E is always a better guide as the market itself looks forward. An improving picture has a P/E of 21 and closing in on 2017 levels. Can only wait and see how inflation and interest rates play out . Never a dull moment.

 FJQtgvSWUAQbOcX (900×652) (twimg.com)

GeoffTF

coastline said:

GeoffTF said:

Collyflower1 said:

GeoffTF said:

Collyflower1 said:

There is so much negativity now i'm not sure if i should just save in equities! I'm thinking the VWRL fund but there is over reliance on the US & technology! Then again i could just drip feed in either VWRL or a 100% VLS and smooth out any volatility?

Saving your money in just equities is very risky. The US & technology is where the majority of the money is being made, so they are strongly represented in VWRL.

It makes sense to drip feed each month's savings as they occur. It does not make much sense to drip feed a lump sum. If the market goes up, you lose out. If the market goes down, you benefit, but only if it goes down before you have invested most of your money.

The standard approach is to choose a bond percentage where you could take the hit if the market crashed, and invest all your money (except for emergency cash, of course) from day 1. If you cannot take the loss on day 1, you should not be in the market with that level of risk after that on either.

The biggest UK crash in my lifetime was in the 1970s. The market dropped to a quarter of its value. It recovered fairly quickly though. You would have lost most of your money if you had invested in Japan before World War 2. If you had invested in Japan at the market peak in 1999, you would still have been underwater 30 years later.

Thanks for all the replies here, I realise i have a lot to learn! Its very difficult to take in such a lot of info in such a short timeframe but i guess i should take my time more? I guess i could drip feed  a few hundred until April to get a feel for it.
 
 Your suggestion makes sense! 
   
    Going back to the VLS60 i think i saw somewhere the p/e value of 19.2 which seems to be a decent rating in that such a valuation would expect to see continuing returns in the next year? I cant now find where i saw these ratings! Although p/e in isolation from other parameters may not mean that much?

   Again, ive seen a graph of cape averaged since 1980 and showing various bear markets, downturns & crashes, but that how the market has been below this cape for a good period, mid-80's-90's(?) Again, i cant find it! I need to take notes!
  
 

Here is the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

It is higher than it was before the 1929 crash. Shiller has another ratio which takes interest rates into account, which paints a less gloomy picture, but interest rates could go up. There is no measure that reliably predicts the future.

Is it really any good ? Apart from saying something like 10 cheap and 30 dear ? Imagine deciding not to invest because it's above the mean or median which is 16. You'd have been out of the market for the last 30 years.
Last year you had commentators saying the SP 500 was on a high P/E of 35 yet as soon as results improve it's on a trailing P/E of 24.

FJRH1SxXwAIsKYO (900×654) (twimg.com)

Forward P/E is always a better guide as the market itself looks forward. An improving picture has a P/E of 21 and closing in on 2017 levels. Can only wait and see how inflation and interest rates play out . Never a dull moment.

 FJQtgvSWUAQbOcX (900×652) (twimg.com)

"The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE as a Predictor of Returns":

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/07/20/the-remarkable-accuracy-of-cape-as-a-predictor-of-returns-1

Schiller looked at many other methods. P/E did not do well. Nonetheless, see my comments above.

P933alilli

Thanks for the replies! So, when opening , for example, a Vanguard LS fund and i decide to drip feed say £500 per month can my decision be changed come April time when i may want to put in a lump sum? (....or not as the case may be!)

GeoffTF

Collyflower1 said:

Thanks for the replies! So, when opening , for example, a Vanguard LS fund and i decide to drip feed say £500 per month can my decision be changed come April time when i may want to put in a lump sum? (....or not as the case may be!)

You do not open a fund, you but units in it. You can buy as many as you want (or can afford) whenever you want. You have to invest via a platform, e.g. Vanguard or iWeb.

P933alilli

Ive now taken the plunge and opened an account with Vanguard in VLS60! The account is showing as pending with £500 in it! Will this be applied for trading from tomorrow or will it take a few days? Thanks!