Offering under asking price

MobileSaver

lookstraightahead said:

Op, personally I think you will get a much better deal in the new year as interest rates rise and (hopefully) the market starts to function in a 'normal' way.

Trying to time the property market is a mug's game; buying a house isn't the same as buying a flat screen TV in the January sales.

The fundamental difference is supply; there simply aren't enough houses that people want to satisfy demand. Until this supply and demand ratio changes there's unlikely to be any significant change in house prices.

lookstraightahead said:

 and (hopefully) the market starts to function in a 'normal' way.

What exactly is this "normal" that you, Crashy and the HPC crowd keep referring to? What do you consider to currently be "abnormal" that will change and have such an impact by the New Year?

My opinion is that if you find a house that works for you and can comfortably afford it then you should buy it. Waiting for a "much better deal" in January is foolish for so many reasons; not least of which is that based on your logic most people will probably end up paying much more in the end because their mortgage interest rate will be higher!

Strummer22

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

As I said, something has skewed the figures upwards, we both know what it is don`t we?... why not just acknowledge that sales are falling and that the thing that you don`t mention is one of the tricks used to try and create demand spikes that cover that fact?

Can you make your mind up please?

If the Stamp Duty Holiday has skewed sales figures upwards (to a ten year high no less!) how can sales be falling?!?! Can you provide any evidence that the official statistics are wrong and that in fact sales are falling?

Crashy_Time said:

Instead of pretending that everything is somehow "normal" ... Transactions are at less than half their peak and still falling,

Are you referring to the peak of 2006? Are you suggesting that the UK housing market from 15 years ago was normal? So you presumably want liar loans, 100% mortgages and other fast and loose lending criteria to be reintroduced so we can get transactions back up to their peak?

Look, I don't agree with Crashy but you're also not actually understanding Crashy's point, which is that even though there have been record transactions this year, the number has dropped dramatically since the end of the stamp duty holiday. Which is true, although there's only one month of data so the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. A data scientist Crashy is not.

The number of transactions in October was actually slightly higher than July, after the end of the higher SDH. From: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above

As there have been a record number of transactions this year, that just means loads of people have just moved and the pool of both sellers and buyers has shrunk. That doesn't mean the market is unbalanced. Or at least, any more unbalanced than normal - decades of crippling under-investment in housing stock seem destined to constrain supply and delay Crashy's crash indefinitely... Crashy joined in 2014, presumably choosing this moniker in the belief that it was indeed, even then, crashy time.

MobileSaver

Strummer22 said:

I don't agree with Crashy but you're also not actually understanding Crashy's point, which is that even though there have been record transactions this year, the number has dropped dramatically since the end of the stamp duty holiday. Which is true,

No, I think you're missing that Crashy first started claiming sales had collapsed based on the previous month's figures which of course actually showed record transactions (both for that month and for year to date.) Specifically he claimed "not many sellers were seeing the benefit of price rises because sales had collapsed" which is obviously complete and utter nonsense.

Of course October's figures are down because so many people brought forward their purchase to take advantage of the SDH. However to claim that means property sales have collapsed would be like claiming Christmas tree sales have collapsed because fewer people buy Christmas trees in January!

lookstraightahead

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

Op, personally I think you will get a much better deal in the new year as interest rates rise and (hopefully) the market starts to function in a 'normal' way.

Trying to time the property market is a mug's game; buying a house isn't the same as buying a flat screen TV in the January sales.

The fundamental difference is supply; there simply aren't enough houses that people want to satisfy demand. Until this supply and demand ratio changes there's unlikely to be any significant change in house prices.

lookstraightahead said:

 and (hopefully) the market starts to function in a 'normal' way.

What exactly is this "normal" that you, Crashy and the HPC crowd keep referring to? What do you consider to currently be "abnormal" that will change and have such an impact by the New Year?

My opinion is that if you find a house that works for you and can comfortably afford it then you should buy it. Waiting for a "much better deal" in January is foolish for so many reasons; not least of which is that based on your logic most people will probably end up paying much more in the end because their mortgage interest rate will be higher!

I can't even begin to understand why you're using the last 18 months statistics without considering all the variables.
the market is "abnormal" for obvious reasons. 

The scenario of paying what you can comfortably afford is also quite bizarre. I can quite comfortably spend £3k on a dishwasher but I would be silly to do that. 

And even if I did spend what "I" could comfortably afford, the bank would probably think differently (mortgage-wise).

warwick2001

I find a more interesting comparison is to ignore last year (was bonkers) and compare to previous years. So, for the month of October, the range is from approx. 80,000 to 100,000 completed transactions between 2009 to 2019 (2008 was another blip in the stats....we all know why). October 2021 sales are 66,800 ish. As has being previously stated, this drop in sales can be attributed to numerous things, such as SDH ending, mortgage rate uncertainty etc etc. To say there is a 'crash' in the market, or that this is the new 'normal' is grossly premature, IMO.

Making a comparison of completed house transactions from one month to the next is fairly pointless at the moment, especially when we are living in such strange times. It would be far more prudent to see the figures over the next 6 months, comparing them to previous years corresponding months, and seeing how/if the market has changed. As we know, there are natural monthly fluctuations due to various factors, the general rule being the market slows down over winter and then picks up in the new year/spring time.

I have been a data analyst (for a large multi-national corporation) in a previous life, and we never looked to compare monthly performance in the same year, as so many factors influenced purchases (we found people spend more money when it's sunny, so comparing September to October was pointless as the weather changes from nice-ish, to ruddy horrid!!). We did, however compare monthly/quarterly performances to previous years', that gave much more accurate analysis.

MobileSaver

lookstraightahead said:

I can't even begin to understand why you're using the last 18 months statistics without considering all the variables.
the market is "abnormal" for obvious reasons.

I was more referring to Crashy's claims that seemed to be implying the 2006 peak was "normal" so was considering 15 years of statistics, not just 18 months.

However the point still stands, what specific "obvious reasons" do you think will now change and cause much better deals by the New Year? Changes I can think of are the ending of the SDH and a probably negligible increase in interest rates, is there anything else you think will bring the market back to "normal"?

lookstraightahead said:

The scenario of paying what you can comfortably afford is also quite bizarre. I can quite comfortably spend £3k on a dishwasher but I would be silly to do that.

I really don't understand what is bizarre about paying what you can comfortably afford. If you need a dishwasher and the only one available is £3k then you would buy it. If there is a cheaper suitable dishwasher available then you could choose to buy that one instead. Paying what you can comfortably afford does not mean you have to pay the absolute most you can afford.

anotheruser

From reading the past few pages, I think some people need to chill out here.

What is the aim of the discussion?
Is your post going to contribute to the discussion?
Because your post is very unlikely to change the other persons view, so is it really worth your time?

Sunsaru

kisaki757 said:

Property B has sold in the meantime to a higher offer than mine. I am not surprised as I knew all along my offer was on the low side. I will be watching out for this to see what the actual price was whenever it gets published in the land registry.

I also increased my offer on property A to somewhere around 6% less than asking price. I've not heard back in over a week so I can only assume it's not been accepted. Like I said, the EA is shady as hell. I will not go any higher than that simply because I don't think that house is worth a penny more (again, based on other recent sales in the area not just my sentiment on house prices).

In the meantime, I am still looking but I have noticed a significant decrease in the number of properties coming on the market. I guess it's because the holiday season is approaching, not really sure...

Things always tend to slow down this time of year so you guess right.

You've done your research and you know what you're willing to pay so just stay calm and keep looking. That applies to any house you look at. They may come back to you (like my vendor did after rejecting my offer) or they may not. Plenty more houses out there and now that the gold rush is over it might get easier to barter.

lookstraightahead

MobileSaver said:

lookstraightahead said:

I can't even begin to understand why you're using the last 18 months statistics without considering all the variables.
the market is "abnormal" for obvious reasons.

I was more referring to Crashy's claims that seemed to be implying the 2006 peak was "normal" so was considering 15 years of statistics, not just 18 months.

However the point still stands, what specific "obvious reasons" do you think will now change and cause much better deals by the New Year? Changes I can think of are the ending of the SDH and a probably negligible increase in interest rates, is there anything else you think will bring the market back to "normal"?

lookstraightahead said:

The scenario of paying what you can comfortably afford is also quite bizarre. I can quite comfortably spend £3k on a dishwasher but I would be silly to do that.

I really don't understand what is bizarre about paying what you can comfortably afford. If you need a dishwasher and the only one available is £3k then you would buy it. If there is a cheaper suitable dishwasher available then you could choose to buy that one instead. Paying what you can comfortably afford does not mean you have to pay the absolute most you can afford.

I think that those who were able to buy with SDH rushed themselves through. I think the market of potential buyers will dry up a bit because of this. I think interest rate rises will make some difference. I think people will concentrate on "getting back to normal" rather than moving home (perhaps). We are already seeing lenders "down" value properties. 

I wouldn't buy a dishwasher for £3k nor would I believe someone who said it was the only one that would make me happy and that there were no more anywhere to be found. The dishwasher wouldn't bring me any joy, I would just feel ripped off.

[Deleted User]

anotheruser said:

From reading the past few pages, I think some people need to chill out here.

What is the aim of the discussion?
Is your post going to contribute to the discussion?
Because your post is very unlikely to change the other persons view, so is it really worth your time?

People get very frustrated because housing is too unaffordable and the advice given is patronising and doesn't work. Some of the snarky/yorkshireman commentators need to reign it in a bit.