What should the unit prices be to cover wholesale prices?

QrizB

Fortunately we're over half-way through the period; it would take some big and sustained changes (in either direction) to have a significant effect.

Although I probably shouldn't tempt fate

Spies

So according to Drax, prices went negative tonight but I really don't understand why? Does the Drax graph not show excess energy as all the sources appear to add up to 100%.

QrizB

Spies said:

So according to Drax, prices went negative tonight but I really don't understand why? Does the Drax graph not show excess energy as all the sources appear to add up to 100%.

The headline Drax price is the balancing mechanism price; relatively little energy exchanges hands at that price. (Drax also gives a day-ahead price, which has fewer peaks and troughs.)

And there is no excess energy, electricity isn't stored so it all goes somewhere. If demand is less than supply, the voltage and/or frequency will rise so that consumers use more. If demand is greater than supply, voltage and/or frequency will fall. If either parameter looks like moving out of tolerance, generation and/or demand will be adjusted to bring balance to the Force.

Shedman

Ofgem consults on adjustments to the energy price cap

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news-and-views/press-releases

Spies

If we use this as a basis, then we're are looking at 23p/kwh at least!

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2021/11/power-ni-to-hike-electricity-prices-by-21-/

Sea_Shell

Just been looking at the gas price (per therm) on the BBC website.

It first went over 200p per therm on 28th September, and has been consistently over that price, other than from 28/10 - 15/11, bottoming out at 166p on 29/10.

Currently sitting at 243p

wild666

  What will happen to the standing charges?

IMHO the standing charges should be the same whichever supplier you choose. Sometimes it's only the standing charge that is the difference between one supplier and another and the electric/gas is within a tenth of a penny or so. 

If the standing charge was the same across the board then the only thing a supplier would have to make cheaper would be the gas and electric and at the present rates there wouldn't be much between the highest and lowest supplier.

QrizB

Sea_Shell said:

Just been looking at the gas price (per therm) on the BBC website.

It first went over 200p per therm on 28th September, and has been consistently over that price, other than from 28/10 - 15/11, bottoming out at 166p on 29/10.

Currently sitting at 243p

If it's any reassurance (and I suspect it isn't), futures for winter 22 are currently 116.5p at TheICE. That's less than half the current price but still 4p/kWh!

Sea_Shell

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Just been looking at the gas price (per therm) on the BBC website.

It first went over 200p per therm on 28th September, and has been consistently over that price, other than from 28/10 - 15/11, bottoming out at 166p on 29/10.

Currently sitting at 243p

If it's any reassurance (and I suspect it isn't), futures for winter 22 are currently 116.5p at TheICE. That's less than half the current price but still 4p/kWh!

I suppose the issue will be if any suppliers are offering deals (including the cap) at anywhere near 4p come winter 22.   And they don't just inflate the SC to compensate!

There's nothing we can do about it, other than budget for the worst and try to keep our usage down.

MWT

Sea_Shell said:

I suppose the issue will be if any suppliers are offering deals (including the cap) at anywhere near 4p come winter 22.   And they don't just inflate the SC to compensate!

The SC is separately capped, and the cap for the SC tends to go up very slowly and some years has even gone down.