Energy news in general

QrizB

Cornwall Insight have shared their assessment of the impact of the US-Iran war on energy prices. They're tentatively predicting a July cap just shy of £2000.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cede1nn8wp5o

Typical annual household energy bills could go up by £332 in July, energy consultancy Cornwall Insight calculates, although the figure is likely to change.

The forecast reflects the surge in oil and gas prices as the US-Israel war on Iran continues, and could rise further or fall back depending on where energy prices go next.

The energy regulator Ofgem will set the July cap on energy bills for households on 27 May, based on wholesale prices in March, April and May.

Noting that we're not even one month into the quarter, there's plenty of scope for things to change in either direction.

Scot_39

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81930371#Comment_81930371

But surely if the green argument was winning - gas and so lpg demand should be decreasing globally as well.

Producers will hope prices stay high to recoup like ones $20bn forecast loss - its in their interests to talk up prices.

debitcardmayhem

News from NESO, I havent had chance to read yet, waiting for appointment with Dr.

https://www.neso.energy/news/millions-households-and-businesses-free-reap-rewards-flexing-energy-use

Scot_39

and millions more do not but incur the costs.

Its a planning faulure - putting net zero - noweven more so with its rush to 95% by 2030 - wind and solar due to seasonal variation in uk even more so arguably - above sensible generation provision - that creates such excess generation capacity by relying on too much intermittent power with low such as in 3x% average capacity factors and variability / spread 1-70% for wind last year).

its a failure of govt strategy, licensing / contracts, and of Ofgem market regulation and cap pricing that its presense only benefits the minority.

WiserMiser

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81931039#Comment_81931039

Welcome to Surge Pricing ! 🙁

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/bills/energy/energy-customers-smart-meters-face-pay-more-busy-times/

Scot_39

welcome to the real reality of HHS, the real reason Ofgem has weakened tgd original DAPF protections for every new smart meter installedin last few years, and for everyone swapping suppliers since (did it ever get as far as swapping tariffs as was also proposed??).

As clearly intimated by the energy indusries main uk lobby group. Take part to save. Or dont.

HHS is an industry led initiative, that Ofgem hopes will save on consumer costs, but likely only for some.

just as its swap to save failed to protect millions of ordinary users, resulting in them imposing the cap as we know it today.

QrizB

ENTSOE have published their final report into the April 2025 Iberian blackout.

It's ~500 pages so you might choose not to read it all.

https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/blackout/28-april-2025-iberian-blackout/#Publications_&_Documents

Here's their precis:

The investigation concludes that the blackout resulted from a combination of many interacting factors, including oscillations, gaps in voltage and reactive power control, differences in voltage regulation practices, rapid output reductions and generator disconnections in Spain, and uneven stabilisation capabilities. These factors led to fast increases of voltage and cascading generation disconnections in Spain, resulting in the blackout in continental Spain and Portugal.

Based on these findings, the Expert Panel sets out recommendations addressing each of the factors identified in the report to help prevent similar events in the future. These include strengthened operational practices, improved monitoring of system behaviour and closer coordination and data exchange among power system actors. The findings of the investigation also underscore the need for regulatory frameworks to adapt in order to support the evolving nature of the power system.

QrizB

Welcome to Surge Pricing !

I went looking for a new Ofgem consultation on a dynamic price cap but couldn't find it.

Then I realised that Telegraph article is from two years ago.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/call-for-input/future-price-protection-discussion-paper

The consultation closed in May 2024. Here's the outcome:

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/summary-responses-future-domestic-price-protection-discussion-paper

Essentially, Ofgem aren't doing anything about it at this time.

debitcardmayhem

The NESO Article I posted is about being rewarded for moving/exporting , nothing to surge pricing at all, usual FUD conspiracy theorist jumping before they leap.

I got an email from HUGO yesterday , explaining it here. I would expect other aggregators coming up soon.https://hugoenergyapp.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6ffa80ed904bdd246d710ae1d&id=a6c1454e89&e=aaec8004fb

Scot_39

Moving - only works for many when motivated by / a response to dynamic (some might arguably say surge) pricing.

And those who benefit - as per the list - EV owners, battery owners, ASHP owners.

Not often those the regulator should be acting to protect with lower bills - just as the taxman doesn't lower tax rates for the wealthy.

Gird imbalance an inevitable consequence of unreliable (in generation intermittent) output renewables.

Demand balance agreed a more nuanced concept that impacts total generation - and givent the £10s billions being spent - grid capacity as well - regardless of energy source - but ultimately most will still seek either a reward - lower pricing - or avoiding a penalty - higher prices - to willingly take part.

Anything other than scrapping it completely or building not hours but days worth of energy storage to even out renewables - is just a crass response to the imbalance (generation vs demand) brought to the grid by the over use of unreliable energy generation in the first place.

If you can play that game and benefit - like -VE agile pricing - you might think great.

But others cannot - do not have the knowledge, if do dont have the funds - or the ability - like the millions of private, HA and social housing tenants - at the mercy of their landlords choices and constraints - to join in.

Those arguably the regulator should be acting to protect with lower bills.