Energy news in general

Robin9

The grid demand has fallen steadily over the last decade with LED , better appliances, better building regs and losses of heavy industry.

grid.iamkate.com

There appears to be a 2025 kick up - not sure why ?

debitcardmayhem

if you are interested in DFS the NESO webinar https://players.brightcove.net/6415851838001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6368812022112

Scot_39

I suspect its simply a reflection of the season. 

That is if the 2025 data is literally only 2025 year to date.

As demand varies by over 10GW summer to winter in UK  last year c26 to c38 GWh per day.  So averages around 30 and tge last few weeks have been around 35 GW if look at tge past year - pretty  much where the 2025 line is on historic all time chart.

In terms of likely domestic user demand - 2 potential big hitters - 380,000 more EVs sold in uk 2024, nearly 100,000 ashp etc etc

At 8000 av mileage - many company and rental evs will do far more and a generous 4m / kWh - many larger evs do less - adds 2000kWh x 380,000 = 760 GWh per year.

But that's only - for now - an ave of sub 0.1GW ave demand when divide by 365 and 24 to get yearly energy to ave power.

There are c30m plus more cars and lights good vans to go electric yet  - 100x that figure.  Let's call it 10GW cf last years 26 summer to 38 winter demand.

A significant increase in UK ave grid demand.

Replacing gch tdcv 11500 kWh with an ashp, electric cooking etc at an average cop of 3 across all devices - so an ashp for heating at a far higher average cop - adds nearly 4000kWh electric demand to the 2700 tdcv.  Across 100,000 homes - 400 GWh per year.

But that's again only - for now - just an average of sub 0.05 GW demand. 

However the real kicker for grid capacity - there's around 250 x as many homes still to convert from mains gas / lpg / wood / oil to fully electric - so yet another 11GW or so average - but of course heavily weighted to winter months.  To increase tge current 12GW last year summer to winter difference even further.

Even the EV load will be seasonal - lower battery efficiency but just more power used for car lights and car cabin heating.

Its been a cold at least cf last year Jan and Feb - my heating bill for Jan 25% up on last year - and many off gas grid homes - millions like me - still have conventional electric heating.

It would be interesting to know where the time periods actually lie - but I suspect it's potentially just seasonality and data window for averaging.

TroubledTarts

Robin9 said:

The grid demand has fallen steadily over the last decade with LED , better appliances, better building regs and losses of heavy industry.

grid.iamkate.com

There appears to be a 2025 kick up - not sure why ?

I would hazard a guess at mainly the colder weather for us with our ASHP. Up 20% on kwh usage on the heat pump

We don't have an EV but would suggest when it's cold they use more juice and more of them on the road as well. As well as more ASHP fitted as well.

We have had relatively mild winters but this one is sticking around.

TroubledTarts

The_Green_Hornet said:

Giant gas field discovered in Lincolnshire 'could fuel UK for years'

Gas reserves that could fuel the UK for several years have been discovered in Limcolnshire, an energy company says.

Reports in national media say the Gainsborough Trough "gas field" could provide a decade's worth of energy and boost the UK economy by £100 billion.

Giant gas field discovered in Lincolnshire 'could fuel UK for years' | ITV News Calendar

As I don't know I guess the question is what harm does fracking do to get this gas out? 

This may fall under nimby.

Scot_39

Most fracking extraction has been OK, but thry also did some real harm in some locations.

Providing we like they had to learn from these mistakes - its green politics not technical practicalities that stop us taking advantage - whilst lpg tankers full of American gas - a lot of it fracked gas - dock at our terminals on a regular basis - to keep our fires and gch boilers running.

Greens need to learn for decades to come its not no oil and it's not no gas.

But locally sourced oil or imported, locally sourced gas or imported.

Even after 2050 - if we ever get to net zero - the key being the NET - we will still be using oil by products and still be burning gas.

And whilst we destroy uk jobs and tax producing industries like N Sea oil - others like India, China etc are allowed to grow their emissions under likes of Glasgow hosted COP 26 agreements.

I for one kind of hope likes of Shell do carry out past consideration to leave UK as they are reportedly considering and take their taxes mainly on overseas profits with them.  Perhaps then our govt and the rest of us as taxpayers expected to make up the shortfall - will learn the damage we are inflicting on our selves.  

stripling

@Scot_39
Replacing gch tdcv 11500 kWh with an ashp, electric cooking etc at an average cop of 3 across all devices - so an ashp for heating at a far higher average cop - adds nearly 4000kWh electric demand to the 2700 tdcv.  Across 100,000 homes - 400 GWh per year.
But that's again only - for now - just an average of sub 0.05 GW demand.  
However the real kicker for grid capacity - there's around 250 x as many homes still to convert from mains gas / lpg / wood / oil to fully electric - so yet another 11GW or so average - but of course heavily weighted to winter months.  To increase tge current 12GW last year summer to winter difference even further.

All this is why I suspect the rush to move away from gas has been slowed down - we aren't ready plus it risks becoming an electoral issue. 

When my heat pump was going in, one (young) neighbour had gas piped into her home for the first time, another replaced her gas boiler with a new one and all the gas mains in the area were being renewed. My installers were going nuts. They had to park next to gas vans. 

70sbudgie

In terms of general energy news, all the network reforms are seriously gathering pace. There has been a significant announcement on average once a week since the middle of December. 

They can nearly all be found on the NESO website under Publications. Mostly under Connections Reform, but there is so much information there it is more likely Wonderland than just one rabbit hole.

Connections reform is all the changes to connect (edit to remove "all") the renewable generation that is stuck in a queue (by getting rid of the schemes going nowhere that are causing blockages). 

Last week's biggest announcement is that Ofgem have said they'll probably say yes (they call it their "minded to" position) to the proposed changes.

Ildhund

Talking of which, Cornwall has an article about TNUoS, a topic which will undoubtedly figure largely in the standing charge reform debate.

The_Green_Hornet

Miliband urges energy watchdog to act as typical bill could rise by more than £100 a year

Ed Miliband has urged the energy watchdog to take swift action as it emerged that the typical energy bill could soar by more than £100 a year amid a rise in global gas prices.

A Whitehall source said they expected bills in England, Scotland and Wales to increase by about £9 a month over the next three months in a blow to government plans to tackle the cost of living.

They blamed volatile global gas prices linked to the end of the transit deal that enabled gas to flow to Europe, through Ukraine, from Russia.

Miliband urges energy watchdog to act as typical bill could rise by more than £100 a year | Energy bills | The Guardian