April Price Cap Prediction Daily Figures?

sparky0138

I know Martin's advice is to DO NOTHING but I've been doing some sums so I can decide whether or not to gamble on a fixed deal, which at the moment is about £400 more than the cap - ouch!

What would really help is if I had some rates based on what the April cap might be. I've heard it could be anything from £1500-£2000 but I don't know how to work out what the kwh and standing charge might be if this was the case.

Is it possible please to give me an estimate for pence per kWh and daily standing charge for gas and electricity for two potential price cap figures come April of £1500 and £1800? 

QrizB

A standing charge of 27p/day per fuel, plus gas at 7p/kWh and electricity at 25p/kWh, would give a  cap of £1762 - towards the upper end of your range.

spot1034

You need to take into account that forward prices beyond next April are much lower in the market, and whilst things could change the present expectation is that this is a short to medium term spike in prices which will be reversed given an improvement in supply and storage, both of which could happen during next summer - there will clearly be a concerted effort to do this. Given that, prices for fixes could well drop back from the very high levels they are at right now.

SnowMan

The calculations will vary depending on fuel mix (gas + electricity etc) and seasonal usage and region etc. And obviously we don't know what future prices under the cap or otherwise will be.

But for me personally I'm currently on a variable tariff at around the effective price cap rates (was with Avro),

2 year fixes

My cheapest 2 year fix is £285pa more expensive over a year than my current variable tariff (with no price increase in April factored in). Having done the calculations, my tariff rates in April 2022 would have to increase by 60% (standard charge and unit rate for both electricity and gas) with those rates remaining at that increased April 2022 rates for the following 18 months to take us 2 years into the future, for the 2 year fix to be about the same cost as my current variable (with post April 2022 increases factored in).

1 year fixes

If prices increased by 150% in April 2022 (i.e more than doubled) I would still be better off sticking on my variable rate (with April 2022 increases factored in) than switching to the cheapest large company 1 year fix available which is £414pa more expensive over a year than my current tariff (with no price increases). When you take into account that about two thirds of my total energy cost is over the Winter months, it takes an extreme scenario for the 'saving' I make in the next 6 months to be wiped out by price increases in April 2022.

Everyone's circumstances will be different. But at the risk of over-generalising I would be surprised if any currently available one year fix makes any sense currently for pretty much anyone. There may be an argument for going for a currently available big company 2 year fix in some scenarios.

Personally it's an easy decision for me, I will stay on my price capped rates for the time being and take my chances.

Energyinsider

Cornwall insights are predicting it to go up to £1,660. https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/cornwall-insight-warns-supply-market-on-edge-for-further-consolidation-predicts-1-660-price-cap

I would also take into account higher winter usage of looking at a 1 year fix vs variable capped tariff. 

Also a lot of the price is being driven by worst case scenario, as we can’t afford to run out of energy. But obviously that isn’t the most likely scenario, so a normal winter will mean things settle back down very quickly