Struggling to figure out what to do here

VT41

I was with Avro, as we know they have gone bust.  For context 1 bed flat, 1 person. 

I'm in the process of switching to British Evolve. Fixed for 2 years. Approx £78 per month. £960 year. Gas Unit price 5.18  . Electricity 20.2

The current price cap ( based on a medium usage household, 3 people household) £1277, let's assume they increase it to £1500 

I'm 60% of a medium household. 60% of £1500 = £900 year

Am I better to wait and go on the standard tariff for a year and then assess and see if the wholesale prices reduce thereby potentially fixing at a lower rate then? This is on the assumption I stay with the most expensive capped standard variable tariff in which I would hope to also find a cheaper one in that time..

Thoughts?

[Deleted User]

The advice at the moment is to wait for a week or two and see what tariff the SoLR puts the ex avro's on. 
From there, you can take it or leave it - penalty free. 
Gas prices may come down in time for the next cap review, the trouble is, is that the big energy firms are having to purchase an awful lot more gas at criminally high prices, after taking on hundreds of thousands, or more, of additional customers. These firms are going to want to get their bucks back, so unfortunately I reckon prices are going to remain very, very high for a long while yet. 
If you switch now, and go on a fixed deal for 2 years, you may protect yourself in the long run and end up with a cheaper deal long term (albeit more expensive right now)  than someone who runs on a variable tariff, which will increase again in April. 
It's all swings and roundabouts, there are pros and cons for each scenario - but one thing is for sure, in terms of your purse or wallet, there's only going to be negatives. 

Armengar

dont use assumptions, calculate what the cap is, calculate what you pay then there is your answer.  Remember the cap goes up to winter mode by about 12% in OCT. 

If you set the switch before avro went bust and you had an acceptance email then well done.

SaverRate

Depends what risk you want - the cap on the variable tariffs last 6 months - after October next one is April.
If the cap goes up in April (looking likely but you never know) are you better fixing now? 
I have just signed up to the Sainsburys fix before they pulled v18 so I am on a cheaper tariff than the cap. 
Only you can really decide what to do 

VT41

The cap is based on a medium usage household. you need to decide where you stand on that.

Current cap is set to 1277 for a medium usage household. I'm a 'low usage' person. 

If the cap is increased to £1500 for a 'medium usage household' I would be roughly 60% of that. £900 per month,

Cheapest fix out there for me is £960 

So I would save by not going with the cheapest fix now and also stay on the current cheaper deal with AVRO up until the new supplier is confirmed.

jimjames

VT41 said:

The cap is based on a medium usage household. you need to decide where you stand on that.

No, the cap is based on a set rate per kWh and calculated to show what it would cost for a medium use. The rate is capped regardless of your usage. Price cap of £1277 runs to April 2022 but may/will increase then

Flight3287462

Get your meter readings and calculate your usage using the tariff and standing charge. Then compare your tariff and usage against others

Whatever you are doing will not give you an accurate figure.

[Deleted User]

VT41 said:

I was with Avro, as we know they have gone bust.  For context 1 bed flat, 1 person. 

I'm in the process of switching to British Evolve. Fixed for 2 years. Approx £78 per month. £960 year. Gas Unit price 5.18  . Electricity 20.2

The current price cap ( based on a medium usage household, 3 people household) £1277, let's assume they increase it to £1500 

I'm 60% of a medium household. 60% of £1500 = £900 year

Am I better to wait and go on the standard tariff for a year and then assess and see if the wholesale prices reduce thereby potentially fixing at a lower rate then? This is on the assumption I stay with the most expensive capped standard variable tariff in which I would hope to also find a cheaper one in that time..

Thoughts?

There is no point working it out with all that "one person = 60%" - you can't possibly get an accurate answer.

Use exact kWh annual usage for gas and electricity separately to do a proper comparison otherwise you could totally miscalculate the best deals.

The Ofgem rates are based on 12,000kWh gas and 3,100kWh elec and therefore can only be used as a comparison if you usage is exactly that.

For example I'm a 4 person household yet I use double the Ofgem cap benchmark in electricity but only 25% more in gas which I expect to drop dramatically this winter with everyone out of lockdown and back out of the house during the day - probably will drop to the Ofgem cap consumption.

If I was to compare my energy bills by saying I'm a 25% bigger household than the cap that would work out totally wrong for me - it comes to £1600 based on 1st Oct cap when in fact I'm fixed on rates much lower than the price cap paying £1800 because I'm skewed by the high electricity consumption - whereas if I was paying the actual cap rates per kWh then my bill would be £2120 per year.

I also bear in mind the fact that most of my gas usage is in winter where I use about £90 per month peak in January but only £16 in the summer months whereas my elec usage is fairly flat all year round. Having a lower gas tariff for the next 6 months makes a bigger difference than it will come April next year.

Just makes no sense to compare with "60% of the cap", so do a kWh comparison of annual cost.

bd10

Armengar said:

If you set the switch before avro went bust and you had an acceptance email then well done.

I am in a similar situation: I switched to EON on Monday. Received the welcome email, T&Cs. On Wednesday I called EON and they said that they accepted my contract and the switch would be in progress. Also had a look at Ofgem's site which states that if the switch is in progress while current supplier goes bust the switch will go ahead. Planned date of completing the switch would be 8th of Oct. 

Despite all that I am still worried that Avro contracts being reassigned by Ofgem might mess up everything for me. Almost 600k customers hanging in the air, that's pretty unprecedented. Is it still safe to assume the switch away from Avro will proceed or do you think there might be a chance of ending up with the whoever takes biz over from Avro?

Thanks!

MalMonroe

No. Looks like you are all set to go with EON now. Looks like British Gas will be taking over Avro.

But you have two assurances that all's going ahead - you said :

1. Received the welcome email, T&Cs. On Wednesday I called EON and they said that they accepted my contract and the switch would be in progress.

and 

2. had a look at Ofgem's site which states that if the switch is in progress while current supplier goes bust the switch will go ahead.

You're going to be an EON customer. Try not to worry.

VT41

Deleted_User said:

VT41 said:

I was with Avro, as we know they have gone bust.  For context 1 bed flat, 1 person. 

I'm in the process of switching to British Evolve. Fixed for 2 years. Approx £78 per month. £960 year. Gas Unit price 5.18  . Electricity 20.2

The current price cap ( based on a medium usage household, 3 people household) £1277, let's assume they increase it to £1500 

I'm 60% of a medium household. 60% of £1500 = £900 year

Am I better to wait and go on the standard tariff for a year and then assess and see if the wholesale prices reduce thereby potentially fixing at a lower rate then? This is on the assumption I stay with the most expensive capped standard variable tariff in which I would hope to also find a cheaper one in that time..

Thoughts?

There is no point working it out with all that "one person = 60%" - you can't possibly get an accurate answer.

Use exact kWh annual usage for gas and electricity separately to do a proper comparison otherwise you could totally miscalculate the best deals.

The Ofgem rates are based on 12,000kWh gas and 3,100kWh elec and therefore can only be used as a comparison if you usage is exactly that.

For example I'm a 4 person household yet I use double the Ofgem cap benchmark in electricity but only 25% more in gas which I expect to drop dramatically this winter with everyone out of lockdown and back out of the house during the day - probably will drop to the Ofgem cap consumption.

If I was to compare my energy bills by saying I'm a 25% bigger household than the cap that would work out totally wrong for me - it comes to £1600 based on 1st Oct cap when in fact I'm fixed on rates much lower than the price cap paying £1800 because I'm skewed by the high electricity consumption - whereas if I was paying the actual cap rates per kWh then my bill would be £2120 per year.

I also bear in mind the fact that most of my gas usage is in winter where I use about £90 per month peak in January but only £16 in the summer months whereas my elec usage is fairly flat all year round. Having a lower gas tariff for the next 6 months makes a bigger difference than it will come April next year.

Just makes no sense to compare with "60% of the cap", so do a kWh comparison of annual cost.

From the Ofgem website 

21p per kWh for electricity customers and 4p per kWh for gas customers. 

Estimated annual electricity usage - 2000KwH  . 0.21 * 2000 = £420

Gas - Estimated 9000Kwh 

With it being set at 0.40p  * 8500kwh = 3600? - This doesn't seem right, where am I going wrong?

Appreciate the help