Evergrande. Here's hoping CCP will step in.

Thrugelmir

Alexland said:

tranquility1 said:

Investors either aren't aware or they have balls of steel.

I doubt this registers as relevant to the robin hood speculators and long term investor education is much better these days so with the expectation of market volatility they are less likely to take action on the back of news events which, on average, would damage their long term return. Even at current prices equities are likely to generate long term above inflation returns so no need to panic sell if investing suitably towards objectives.

Every generation of investors makes the same mistakes as those that preceded them. Not least they that believe that they know better. Fall into exactly the same traps. 

tranquility1

Malthusian said:

I've just stacked a million chicken nuggets bros, I'll see you on my 40-foot catamaran.

tranquility1 said:

But Evergrande could well be the black swan I've been expecting.  

If you were expecting it it's not a black swan.

Even if stockmarkets did crash because a Chinese property company has gone bust, that would not be a black swan, because stockmarket crashes are normal. A stockmarket crash is more like a flock of swallows turning up in May.

There is no such thing as a flock of swans. A bank of swans perhaps. Or a wedge of swans. 

tranquility1

Alexland said:

tranquility1 said:

Investors either aren't aware or they have balls of steel.

I doubt this registers as relevant to the robin hood speculators and long term investor education is much better these days so with the expectation of market volatility they are less likely to take action on the back of news events which, on average, would damage their long term return. Even at current prices equities are likely to generate long term above inflation returns so no need to panic sell if investing suitably towards objectives.

Just because that's been true of stocks for the last 40 years it doesn't mean it'll be true for the next 40 years. 

Alexland

tranquility1 said:

Just because that's been true of stocks for the last 40 years it doesn't mean it'll be true for the next 40 years. 

Still plenty of good businesses doing useful activities for which customers are happy to pay a price which enables a fair shareholder return. I'd rather put my confidence in that than being able to perfectly time my movements into cash whenever I read a bad news story that might have some significance.

tranquility1

Alexland said:

tranquility1 said:

Just because that's been true of stocks for the last 40 years it doesn't mean it'll be true for the next 40 years. 

Still plenty of good businesses doing useful activities for which customers are happy to pay a price which enables a fair shareholder return. I'd rather put my confidence in that than being able to perfectly time my movements into cash whenever I read a bad news story that might have some significance.

It's not only Evergrande though is it...   The whole thing is a house of cards.  The central banks can only print money.  They cannot taper.  They can't move the interest rates.  Global supply chains are in trouble.  Millions of people have been paid not to work.  Many companies are not operating at their previous capacities across the board.  Rising inflation.  Rising taxes.  

The only reason equities are doing well is that QE is going into assets.  That will stop.  

Alexland

People being paid not to work while plenty of demand from employers needs resolving but more of a short term readjustment. Inflation will support equity valuations and we had similar inflation after the financial crisis. Low interest rates are less of an issue for equity investors it would be more of a problem if they rise significantly.

grumiofoundation

tranquility1 said:

Malthusian said:

I've just stacked a million chicken nuggets bros, I'll see you on my 40-foot catamaran.

tranquility1 said:

But Evergrande could well be the black swan I've been expecting.  

If you were expecting it it's not a black swan.

Even if stockmarkets did crash because a Chinese property company has gone bust, that would not be a black swan, because stockmarket crashes are normal. A stockmarket crash is more like a flock of swallows turning up in May.

There is no such thing as a flock of swans. A bank of swans perhaps. Or a wedge of swans. 

Surely you prefer to use the collection noun a lamentation of swans?

It's only a bank if they are on the ground (presumably once they have crashed!).

tebbins

grumiofoundation said:

tranquility1 said:

Malthusian said:

I've just stacked a million chicken nuggets bros, I'll see you on my 40-foot catamaran.

tranquility1 said:

But Evergrande could well be the black swan I've been expecting.  

If you were expecting it it's not a black swan.

Even if stockmarkets did crash because a Chinese property company has gone bust, that would not be a black swan, because stockmarket crashes are normal. A stockmarket crash is more like a flock of swallows turning up in May.

There is no such thing as a flock of swans. A bank of swans perhaps. Or a wedge of swans. 

Surely you prefer to use the collection noun a lamentation of swans?

It's only a bank if they are on the ground (presumably once they have crashed!).

If they're running on the ground is that a run on the bank?
And it's not that there is no such thing as a flock, though I can understand why you're a prescriptivist who thinks rules made up by Victorian era grammarians to make English unnecessarily complicated so as to keep themselves in a job actually matter.
Did you watch that Peter Lynch video and will you answer my earlier question, name a time when you would have been comfortable investing and not had these same concerns about the world ending as you do now?

Michael121

tebbins said:

If they're running on the ground is that a run on the bank?
And it's not that there is no such thing as a flock, though I can understand why you're a prescriptivist who thinks rules made up by Victorian era grammarians to make English unnecessarily complicated so as to keep themselves in a job actually matter.
Did you watch that Peter Lynch video and will you answer my earlier question, name a time when you would have been comfortable investing and not had these same concerns about the world ending as you do now?

In 1950 us500 hadn't even recovered from 1920s all time high, much easier to buy into a big hole than 6x high since the last crash. You can't even call 2020 a crash or even in 2018.

tranquility1

As I've said, there aren't any investors alive today who have a lived experienced of equities doing anything other than go up and make money.  This has been going on for 40 years, and interest rates have been coming down for 40 years.  Yes, there have been some painful crashes, but it didn't take long to recover and then shoot through the ceiling again.

Investors today, even the smartest of them, do not know anything different.  And they think these times will last forever.


Investors of the past had very different experiences.  They didn't have governments who could print money and bloat the stock markets.  And this printing of money has almost run its course.